Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Guzmán’s remains have been cremated. In other news, there’s disputes over lifetime pensions for Presidents Vizcarra, Sagasti, and Merino, since they all became president through constitutional succession. The law apparently excludes members of Congress who ascend to the Casa de Pizarro from the right to a lifetime pension, which would leave Sagasti and Merino out of luck, but the last president to do so before then, Valentín Paniagua, was given the pension. Vizcarra would be eligible as a former Vice President who became president, but there are issues surrounding his having been impeached.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There’s also been tension between Cerrón and the foreign ministry. The deputy foreign minister (Luis Enrique Chávez) said that “Peru’s position is that there are no legitimate authorities in Venezuela”, which Bellido immediately shot down (pointing out that Castillo met with Maduro at the recent CELAC summit), and the foreign minister (Maúrtua) has openly criticized Perú Libre’s proposed bill to allow the government to regulate or temporarily take over radio and TV stations, which has no support from the opposition and has even received criticism from some members of the caucus.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This government is a massive trainwreck waiting to happen, isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This government is a massive trainwreck waiting to happen, isn't it?

Yes, but then that's the norm for Peru.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Congressional interpelation of Maraví today. Although Castillo is apparently close to him and has stood with him, he’s refused to declare any impeachment/no confidence vote against Maraví to be a no confidence vote in the whole cabinet, which Bellido had proposed earlier.

Also, plans are moving forward with renegotiating the state’s contract with natural gas company Camisea, with Bellido and Cerrón floating the prospect of nationalization. Castillo has stayed focus on negotiating a better contract thus far.

Also, Castillo is apparently unsupportive of the Peru Libre media law, while the PL caucus has called for Maúrtua and the vice minister to resign.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Leaked Whatsapp chats between various members of the Perú Libre caucus (including Bellido and Vladimir Cerrón’s brother Waldemar, the caucus spokesman) reveal coordinated attempts to force Maúrtua and Luis Enrique Chávez to resign, as well as attacks on moderate and former spokeswoman Betssy Chávez (ni relation). Castillo met yesterday evening with the caucus in two separate groups.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Aníbal Torres confirms that Castillo will not make the censure vote against Maraví (which has enough votes to pass) into a confidence vote.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

MAJOR cabinet reshuffle.

Bellido is OUT and replaced by Mirtha Vásquez (former president of Congress during Sagasti’s administration, and notably a member of the FA and not Peru Libre). Maraví is also OUT and replaced by the moderate Betssy Chávez. Major shakeup within the government and a blow to the cerronista wing (although Luis Barranzuela, the new Interior minister, is a partner at the law firm defending Cerrón in his current corruption investigation).

Other major changes include the replacement of Juan Cadillo (education) with Carlos Gallardo, a member of FENATE (the teacher’s union Castillo founded as a spin-off from SUTEP), and of indigenous activist Cirilo Galvez (culture) with anti-Fujimori human rights lawyer Gisela Ortiz.

Castillo also vetoed a bill that would restrict the interpretation of the confidence clause of the constitution, meaning that Congress could only have a confidence vote in the cabinet over issues specific to the executive branch (i.e. the president couldn't make the approval of a bill or constitutional amendment into a confidence vote).

[PSOL]

Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

Lmao, Mirtha Vásquez is not Humala. Cerrón was a massive weight on Castillo’s campaign and still is the biggest drain on his presidency.

Not everyone who's a member of a different leftist party - or even a more moderate member of the same leftist party! - as Your Guy is a fake leftist.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Questions within Peru Libre about whether they'll vote for confidence in Vasquez. Edgar Tello, Jaime Quito, and Waldemar Cerrón, among others, will not. Guillermo Bermejo (one of the most controversial members of the caucus) and Kathy Ugarte, among others, will.

[PSOL]

Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

Lmao, Mirtha Vásquez is not Humala. Cerrón was a massive weight on Castillo’s campaign and still is the biggest drain on his presidency.

Not everyone who's a member of a different leftist party - or even a more moderate member of the same leftist party! - as Your Guy is a fake leftist.

Cérron made Castillo; his platform, his movement, and his momentum were because of Cérron. Else he’d be just another micropersonality failing to get in the threshold. It was his experience and connections that PL came to be.

Now, once the most experienced member leaves and takes the people who do most of the work, Castillo would be lucky to last more than one term in this environment.

[Astatine]

Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

Lmao, Mirtha Vásquez is not Humala. Cerrón was a massive weight on Castillo’s campaign and still is the biggest drain on his presidency.

Not everyone who's a member of a different leftist party - or even a more moderate member of the same leftist party! - as Your Guy is a fake leftist.

Cérron made Castillo; his platform, his movement, and his momentum were because of Cérron. Else he’d be just another micropersonality failing to get in the threshold. It was his experience and connections that PL came to be.

Now, once the most experienced member leaves and takes the people who do most of the work, Castillo would be lucky to last more than one term in this environment.

Well, Peruvian Presidents are not allowed to serve consecutive terms, so he definitely would'nt get a second one after the next election anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cérron gave too much leeway to that ungrateful Humala 2.0. He wouldn’t be where he is without the help of the Left.

Lmao, Mirtha Vásquez is not Humala. Cerrón was a massive weight on Castillo’s campaign and still is the biggest drain on his presidency.

Not everyone who's a member of a different leftist party - or even a more moderate member of the same leftist party! - as Your Guy is a fake leftist.

Cérron made Castillo; his platform, his movement, and his momentum were because of Cérron. Else he’d be just another micropersonality failing to get in the threshold. It was his experience and connections that PL came to be.

Now, once the most experienced member leaves and takes the people who do most of the work, Castillo would be lucky to last more than one term in this environment.

Well, Peruvian Presidents are not allowed to serve consecutive terms, so he definitely would'nt get a second one after the next election anyway.

lmao, tfw you speak confidently about Peruvian politics but you don't know the first thing everyone learns about its institutional structure

Anyway, I for one don't pretend to know much about internal PL politics, but form what I've heard Cerrón comes across as an unhelpful hack, and if Castillo wants to be even moderately successful it's probably a good idea to make overtures to other left-leaning parties.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Peru Libre caucus has stated that they plan to vote against confidence in the Vásquez cabinet - ironically the only party to do so thus far (although I don’t imagine RP and the fujimoristas buying Castillo’s new nice guy FF moves). Several individual members (Óscar Zea, Katy Ugarte) have said that they plan to vote for the cabinet, but it looks like Cerrón has close to officially split from Castillo.

(The main complaints appear to be Betssy Chávez and - interestingly enough - Dina Boluarte in the development ministry, even though she’s always been there and I’d been under the impression until recently that she was more of a party loyalist than Castillo.)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Vásquez is meeting with the party caucuses this week. PL has said that they will not attend due to being in their provinces for constituency work.

Castillo has also reestablished relations with the Maduro government in Venezuela, accepting their ambassador and naming PL party spokesman Richard Rojas ambassador.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Castillo has named former mayor of Lima from the 90s and current antivax wackjob (among other things) Ricardo Belmont as a presidential advisor. Very cool great job. Meanwhile about half of the Peru Libre caucus met with Vásquez yesterday, in defiance of Waldemar Cerrón’s order.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also, it’s Pedro Castillo’s birthday today! He turns 52.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Further debate about the separation of powers. The legislature is trying to limit the scope of confidence votes to include only issues specifically related to the executive branch, but not constitutional reforms (i.e. Castillo’s project), which Aníbal Torres has promised to bring to the Constitutional Court for unconstitutionally limiting the executive’s power to hold confidence votes. Meanwhile, the executive wants to limit censures of ministers to only actions performed in their capacity as such (i.e. not Íber Maraví’s terrorism allegations) and essentially replace the “moral incapacity” standard for impeachment with a physical or mental incapacity standard to be judged by a group of doctors.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Confidence vote in the Vásquez cabinet is scheduled for today. Castillo is trying to get the cerronistas and the centrist parties to vote yes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Vásquez is speaking before Congress now. I’d be listening but I’m in class. After her speech is over there will be three hours of debate, divided by size among the parties. No idea how Perú Libre will allocate its 51 minutes, but if Waldemar Cerrón is the caucus leader…

[PSOL]

So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

He’s spent all his time sidelining his Vice Presidents and telling the PL left to shut up and get in line, of course there would be pushback.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

He’s spent all his time sidelining his Vice Presidents and telling the PL left to shut up and get in line, of course there would be pushback.

He only has one Vice President, who is also a minister in his cabinet (under both Bellido and Vásquez). The second Vice Presidency, which would have been occupied by Cerrón, is vacant because Cerrón was excluded from the ticket due to his corruption conviction.

[PSOL]

So we're at the point where Castillo's own party is trying to undermine him. Just amazing. What a country.

He’s spent all his time sidelining his Vice Presidents and telling the PL left to shut up and get in line, of course there would be pushback.

He only has one Vice President, who is also a minister in his cabinet (under both Bellido and Vásquez). The second Vice Presidency, which would have been occupied by Cerrón, is vacant because Cerrón was excluded from the ticket due to his corruption conviction.

Thanks for correcting me.

Castillo, a pretty face who was selected and tailored to win the presidency by PL party insiders, lost the support of the two of the most powerful and politically adept party bosses by telling them to shut up.