Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues
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Author Topic: Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues  (Read 65936 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #750 on: June 16, 2021, 07:52:39 AM »

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?
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DL
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« Reply #751 on: June 16, 2021, 10:40:11 AM »

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #752 on: June 16, 2021, 11:52:29 AM »

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #753 on: June 16, 2021, 02:05:37 PM »

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.

Thanks to Fujimori Sr for screwing things up so much that things lined up that well for the inauguration date!
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #754 on: June 16, 2021, 05:24:51 PM »

Though isn't she going to try to string this out for a few months yet?

A few months wouldn’t be possible. A few weeks is more likely, since the regional JEEs and the JNE appear to be taking their sweet time with the challenged votes.

Is there a date when Castillo gets inaugurated?

July 28, the 200th anniversary of independence from Spain.

Thanks to Fujimori Sr for screwing things up so much that things lined up that well for the inauguration date!

Lmao yes, imagine being inaugurated in year 199.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #755 on: June 16, 2021, 07:48:03 PM »

Change in the Fujimori vote between 2011 and 2021 runoffs:



Note: the Putumayo province (Loreto Department) was created in 2015, I use the combined result obtained by Fujimori in 2011 in the districts constituting now the Putumayo province but then part of Maynas province.

While Fujimori obtained in 2011 (48.1%) and in 2021 (49.6%) a very similar result in Peru itself (excluding the diaspora vote) while facing pretty similar opponents (a leftist outsider accused by the Peruvian right of being secretly a communist), a series of changes happened in a decade in the distribution of the Fujimorist vote. Broadly speaking, the far-right candidate further improved on her already strong results in the littoral (especially in several medium-sized cities: +14.4% in Tumbes province, +13.1% in Sullana province, +12.5%; in Santa province,+10.6% in Piura; but also, to a slightly lesser extend in the major cities of the coast: +10.4% in Callao province, +10.1% in Trujillo province, +7.8% in Lima province) while making inroads in the Amazon provinces notably in Maynas (+12.6%) where is located Iquitos (seventh-most populated city in Peru) and in Coronel Portillo (+8.4%) where is located Pucallpa (tenth-most populated city in Peru).

Conversely, she continued losing votes in the highlands, especially in the indigenous-populated areas, receiving her worst results in the provinces of Cusco and Puno departments (3.5% down from an already disastrous 6.4% in 2011 in Chumbivilcas province, Cusco; 4.4% down from 10.2% in 2011 in Canas province, Cusco; 4.6% down from 14.7% in 2011 in Azángaro province, Puno and so on). Well, she improved a bit (+0.4%) in the Jivaroan-populated province of Condorcanqui (Amazonas) but no reason to celebrate as she went from 8.9% to 9.3%. The Fujimori vote also receded in the eleven provinces of Ayacucho department but one (Páucar del Sara Sara where she improved her result from 26.3% to 27.0%) despite the fact that it is the familial homeland of Ollanta Humala, her 2011 rival. She however marginally improved her result in the urbanized parts of the coastal southeast: +1.5% in Tacna province and +3.0% in Arequipa province.

Eight of the ten provinces where the Fujimori share of vote declined the most are located in Cajamarca Department, the homeland of Pedro Castillo, with the most significant decline (-32.0%, from 46.1% in 2011 to 14.1%) happening in Chota, Castillo’s native province. Local opposition to mining in Cajamarca probably also probably explained the decrease in the vote for Fujimori as the far-right candidate suffered in a decade heavy losses in Pasco province (-21.0% from 45.4% to 24.4%), home to a controversial and very toxic lead mine, as well as in Espinar (Cusco Department, -16.1%), the theater of a conflict surrounding a mine operating since 1981, in Huancabamba (Piura Departement, -12.7%) where local communities are opposed to a mining project (in the neighboring province of Ayabaca, also concerned by the project, Fujimori’s result remained stable though, at 26.7%). Fujimori also lost a lot of ground (-18.2%) in Oyón province (Lima Department) whose economy is dominated by mining activities, which suggests that she has united miners and opponents to mining against her.

All in all, Fujimori improved her result in 43 provinces while losing ground in 153 others. She has gained eight provinces won by Humala in 2011 and lost twenty-three provinces she won in 2011 but had been gained by Castillo this year.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #756 on: June 17, 2021, 12:49:05 AM »

Change in the Fujimori vote between 2011 and 2021 runoffs:



Note: the Putumayo province (Loreto Department) was created in 2015, I use the combined result obtained by Fujimori in 2011 in the districts constituting now the Putumayo province but then part of Maynas province.

While Fujimori obtained in 2011 (48.1%) and in 2021 (49.6%) a very similar result in Peru itself (excluding the diaspora vote) while facing pretty similar opponents (a leftist outsider accused by the Peruvian right of being secretly a communist), a series of changes happened in a decade in the distribution of the Fujimorist vote. Broadly speaking, the far-right candidate further improved on her already strong results in the littoral (especially in several medium-sized cities: +14.4% in Tumbes province, +13.1% in Sullana province, +12.5%; in Santa province,+10.6% in Piura; but also, to a slightly lesser extend in the major cities of the coast: +10.4% in Callao province, +10.1% in Trujillo province, +7.8% in Lima province) while making inroads in the Amazon provinces notably in Maynas (+12.6%) where is located Iquitos (seventh-most populated city in Peru) and in Coronel Portillo (+8.4%) where is located Pucallpa (tenth-most populated city in Peru).

Conversely, she continued losing votes in the highlands, especially in the indigenous-populated areas, receiving her worst results in the provinces of Cusco and Puno departments (3.5% down from an already disastrous 6.4% in 2011 in Chumbivilcas province, Cusco; 4.4% down from 10.2% in 2011 in Canas province, Cusco; 4.6% down from 14.7% in 2011 in Azángaro province, Puno and so on). Well, she improved a bit (+0.4%) in the Jivaroan-populated province of Condorcanqui (Amazonas) but no reason to celebrate as she went from 8.9% to 9.3%. The Fujimori vote also receded in the eleven provinces of Ayacucho department but one (Páucar del Sara Sara where she improved her result from 26.3% to 27.0%) despite the fact that it is the familial homeland of Ollanta Humala, her 2011 rival. She however marginally improved her result in the urbanized parts of the coastal southeast: +1.5% in Tacna province and +3.0% in Arequipa province.

Eight of the ten provinces where the Fujimori share of vote declined the most are located in Cajamarca Department, the homeland of Pedro Castillo, with the most significant decline (-32.0%, from 46.1% in 2011 to 14.1%) happening in Chota, Castillo’s native province. Local opposition to mining in Cajamarca probably also probably explained the decrease in the vote for Fujimori as the far-right candidate suffered in a decade heavy losses in Pasco province (-21.0% from 45.4% to 24.4%), home to a controversial and very toxic lead mine, as well as in Espinar (Cusco Department, -16.1%), the theater of a conflict surrounding a mine operating since 1981, in Huancabamba (Piura Departement, -12.7%) where local communities are opposed to a mining project (in the neighboring province of Ayabaca, also concerned by the project, Fujimori’s result remained stable though, at 26.7%). Fujimori also lost a lot of ground (-18.2%) in Oyón province (Lima Department) whose economy is dominated by mining activities, which suggests that she has united miners and opponents to mining against her.

All in all, Fujimori improved her result in 43 provinces while losing ground in 153 others. She has gained eight provinces won by Humala in 2011 and lost twenty-three provinces she won in 2011 but had been gained by Castillo this year.

Excellent work, thank you so much.

In JNE news, about 700 of the 900 requests have been thrown out by the regional JEEs for being late, and a few of the on-time ones as well (as unfounded). Now Keiko has to appeal to the JNE.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #757 on: June 18, 2021, 12:24:53 PM »

Here's how Keiko Fujimori can still win!
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #758 on: June 18, 2021, 01:29:11 PM »


Version 3
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PSOL
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« Reply #759 on: June 18, 2021, 01:45:36 PM »

So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #760 on: June 18, 2021, 03:53:57 PM »

So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups

Where are you getting that she supported Merino? I’ve never seen anything but opposition to him and the impeachment from her.
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PSOL
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« Reply #761 on: June 18, 2021, 05:22:14 PM »

So apparently Veronika Mendoza supported not only Vizcarra, which I could see some merit in given the circumstances, but also the usurper Manuel Merino. Yeah, not only did she ran an awful campaign, but for three years her political maneuvers were terrible and basically strung up to becoming a pressure valve for the regime of 1993. Do nothing as the Broad Front she left behind.

Ultimately, the social democratic-oriented Peru Libre is the best bet now for the people given its willingness to realize what must be done to dismantle the oligarchy as far as it can and has the support base to lead; most trade unions support them, as do the radical socialist democrats in Mano Araca’s party and several critical backings by an umbrella of small socialist groups

Where are you getting that she supported Merino? I’ve never seen anything but opposition to him and the impeachment from her.
Hold on, sorry, I was referring to her support for Sagasti
https://www.leftvoice.org/polarization-and-crisis-in-peru/
Quote
Castillo could thus wrest the leadership of the Left from the hands of Verónika Mendoza, who, until weeks before April 11, was one of the most likely candidates to participate in the runoff. Mendoza’s support for Kuczynski in the 2016 runoff, for Vizcarra’s administration, and, more recently, for Sagasti, in order to “preserve the country’s institutions,” apparently led the electorate to perceive her as part of the regime’s old guard.
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Frodo
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« Reply #762 on: June 19, 2021, 12:59:36 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2021, 01:05:56 AM by Frodo »

A group of retired Peruvian officers are (basically) calling on the military to orchestrate a coup d'état to prevent Pedro Castillo from assuming the presidency:

Peru ex-military stir election tensions with appeal to Armed Forces to "remedy" poll

Have they anyone in mind yet who can assume the role of General Augusto Pinochet?  Tongue

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Estrella
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« Reply #763 on: June 19, 2021, 03:44:01 AM »

A group of retired Peruvian officers are (basically) calling on the military to orchestrate a coup d'état to prevent Pedro Castillo from assuming the presidency:

Peru ex-military stir election tensions with appeal to Armed Forces to "remedy" poll

Have they anyone in mind yet who can assume the role of General Augusto Pinochet?  Tongue

It would need to be a Castillo appointee if it were to be historically accurate, and I don't think Perú is ready for that level of irony quite yet.

In any case, the interim president told them to f*** off:

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #764 on: June 19, 2021, 03:54:55 AM »

A group of retired Peruvian officers are (basically) calling on the military to orchestrate a coup d'état to prevent Pedro Castillo from assuming the presidency:

Peru ex-military stir election tensions with appeal to Armed Forces to "remedy" poll

Have they anyone in mind yet who can assume the role of General Augusto Pinochet?  Tongue

It would need to be a Castillo appointee if it were to be historically accurate, and I don't think Perú is ready for that level of irony quite yet.

In any case, the interim president told them to f*** off:


Much respect to Sagasti for his decision here.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #765 on: June 19, 2021, 10:20:22 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2021, 02:43:21 PM by Extremely Beatable Titan Keiko Fujimori »

Every single request from Fuerza Popular to throw out votes has been refused by the JEE. Hopefully it’s just one more week of appeals before this can finally be over. Probably two.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #766 on: June 19, 2021, 08:57:57 PM »

Every single request from Fuerza Popular to throw out votes has been refused by the JEE. Hopefully it’s just one more week of appeals before this can finally be over. Probably two.
Part of me is glad FP is pushing so hard to do this, because the harder they try, the harder they fail.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #767 on: June 20, 2021, 09:31:40 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2021, 12:31:44 PM by Extremely Beatable Titan Keiko Fujimori »

Every single request from Fuerza Popular to throw out votes has been refused by the JEE. Hopefully it’s just one more week of appeals before this can finally be over. Probably two.
Part of me is glad FP is pushing so hard to do this, because the harder they try, the harder they fail.

Friendship ended with FP. Now RP is my best friend.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #768 on: June 22, 2021, 10:09:05 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2021, 10:12:52 AM by Extremely Beatable Titan Keiko Fujimori »

This article doesn’t really say much besides the fact that Castillo is still listening to Cerrón and the PL congressional caucus (some of whom are closer to him and some to Cerrón), but it does appear that Mendoza will likely not be prime minister, nor will a figure from Humala or Toledo’s government. Francke still has a good shot at being finance minister, though.
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Prince of Salem
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« Reply #769 on: June 22, 2021, 12:58:27 PM »

Keiko and allies tried to nullify 802 actas, but that seems to have failed. RIP
Since you're actually from Peru who did you vote for?

Julio Guzman in the first round. Castillo in the runoff, even though I'm not very enthusiastic of some of his economic ideas. He seems to be moderating himself though, which is good news.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #770 on: June 23, 2021, 09:56:54 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2021, 09:25:16 AM by Extremely Beatable Titan Keiko Fujimori »

The JNE has rejected the first ten appeals from the JEE (all from fujimorismo, naturally), and the lone dissenter, Luis Arce Córdova (not to be confused with Luis Arce Catacora (not to be confused with the three poll watchers named Catacora who the fujimoristas accused of being illegally related, because they are racist and desperate)), has resigned. Arce Córdova, as I’m not sure I’ve mentioned, has ties to former Supreme Court justice and current fugitive César Hinostroza.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #771 on: June 24, 2021, 02:54:09 PM »

Happy Inti Raymi everybody. Ceremony concluded about ten minutes ago and I managed to catch the end of it on my lunch break.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #772 on: June 25, 2021, 12:01:36 AM »

On the 20th anniversary of the capture of the boogeyman himself, Vladimiro Montesinos, famed political gadfly Popy Olivera has released audio recordings (supposedly) of him coordinating attempts to bribe members of the JNE into accepting Keiko’s late challenges and create a civil-military resistance (see the letter from retired military officers) to Castillo, in collaboration with Kenji Fujimori and other fujimorista operatives. Olivera has also called for new elections, which has so far only been seriously called for by the farthest of the far right, but he’s been anti-establishment and weird since his five-day tenure as foreign minister, so it’s not a totally wild concept for him.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #773 on: June 26, 2021, 12:23:20 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2021, 09:40:54 AM by Extremely Beatable Titan Keiko Fujimori »

The president of the JNE (Jorge Salas Arenas) has suspended Arce Córdova and called on the next in line for his position, Victor Raul Rodríguez Monteza, who is refusing to take it. If the position isn’t filled the JNE will lack a quorum and be unable to operate.

Update: Rodríguez Monteza has relented and been sworn in.
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PSOL
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« Reply #774 on: June 26, 2021, 01:43:19 PM »

Vladimir Montesinos is too dangerous with the privileges of access he is getting.
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