Peruvian presidential and legislative elections (April 11 and June 6, 2021)
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  Peruvian presidential and legislative elections (April 11 and June 6, 2021)
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Author Topic: Peruvian presidential and legislative elections (April 11 and June 6, 2021)  (Read 20401 times)
Lustration2021
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« Reply #75 on: April 12, 2021, 09:54:33 AM »

Even with a fairly high 57% of the votes counted, the race for the second place is still extremely tight

Pedro Castillo (Perú Libre) 16.375% (1,376,193 votes)
Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) 13.422% (1,128,004)
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) 12.945% (1,087,882)
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 12.823% (1,077,677)
Every one else is under 9%

Blank votes 10.655% ( 1,102,113)
Null votes 4.858% (502,444)

The blank and null vote results for Parliament and the Andean Parliament (which are at 20%  and 12% of the votes counted) are extremely high, which isn't all that surprising after the events of the last couple of years, at a staggering 37% combined

Up to 66% and HdS still barely ahead with 13.25% to Fujimori's 13.03%.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #76 on: April 12, 2021, 10:06:52 AM »

It’s pretty clear by the vote trend that Fujimori will surpass the center-right candidate for 2nd place.

News are already reporting that will be a Castillo vs Fujimori showdown.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #77 on: April 12, 2021, 10:45:07 AM »

IPSOS quick count for Congress (100%), with seat variations to exit poll
Free Peru 12.8% (32, +4)
Popular Force 12.1% (24, +8)
Popular Action 9.7% (21, -2)
Alliance for the Progress 7.2% (14, =)
Popular Renewal 9.9% (13, +2)
Go On Country 7.3% (7, -3)
We Can Peru 6.0% (5, -1)
We Are Peru 5.8% (4, -1)
National Victory 5.0% (4, -1)
Together for Peru 6.6% (3, -5)
Purple Party 5.1% (3, -1)
FREPAP 4.3%

PM and VN (Forsyth) are around the threshold, JPP and SP are also below the 5-seat threshold to keep party registration. For majorities trends more favourable to the right bloc, but the left-to-centre bloc (mostly PL+JPP+SP+PM) needs more than 44 seats (1/3 of the chamber) to avoid any impeachment process (in case of "Peter Castle" wins the runoff).
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: April 12, 2021, 10:53:50 AM »

IPSOS quick count for Congress (100%), with seat variations to exit poll
Free Peru 12.8% (32, +4)
Popular Force 12.1% (24, +8)
Popular Action 9.7% (21, -2)
Alliance for the Progress 7.2% (14, =)
Popular Renewal 9.9% (13, +2)
Go On Country 7.3% (7, -3)
We Can Peru 6.0% (5, -1)
We Are Peru 5.8% (4, -1)
National Victory 5.0% (4, -1)
Together for Peru 6.6% (3, -5)
Purple Party 5.1% (3, -1)
FREPAP 4.3%

PM and VN (Forsyth) are around the threshold, JPP and SP are also below the 5-seat threshold to keep party registration. For majorities trends more favourable to the right bloc, but the left-to-centre bloc (mostly PL+JPP+SP+PM) needs more than 44 seats (1/3 of the chamber) to avoid any impeachment process (in case of "Peter Castle" wins the runoff).

It seems FREPAP underperformed pre-election polls.  Most likely this is because they did not have a Prez candidate at the top of the ticket.  Any reason why they did not run a Prez candidate ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: April 12, 2021, 10:55:16 AM »

It’s pretty clear by the vote trend that Fujimori will surpass the center-right candidate for 2nd place.

News are already reporting that will be a Castillo vs Fujimori showdown.

2021 is the year with the weakest Fujimori campaign (when compared to 2011 and 2016) but ironically this time her chances are just as high is not higher than it was than in 2011 and 2016.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: April 12, 2021, 11:24:37 AM »

Keiko Fujimori moves into second place in the official count.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #81 on: April 12, 2021, 11:50:19 AM »

It seems FREPAP underperformed pre-election polls.  Most likely this is because they did not have a Prez candidate at the top of the ticket.  Any reason why they did not run a Prez candidate ?

They didn't showed interest to run a Presidential candidate by their own, I believe they preferred being focused on Congress campaign rather than a Presidential run, this may damaged their prospects as the campaign progressed, but also in the last month has been many changes respect voting preferences for Congress, according trends, most FREPAP voters may switched to similar "rural/conservative" options Avanza Pais, Popular Renewal or even Peru Libre (or some others voted null/blank)
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #82 on: April 12, 2021, 07:21:45 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2021, 07:39:15 PM by Хahar 🤔 »

I made a quick map of results by province. Errors are likely and one province has no results available online currently.

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Alex
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« Reply #83 on: April 12, 2021, 07:44:53 PM »

With 90.5% of the votes counted, Keiko is 1.4% above De Soto and Aliaga
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Send the Tories to Davey’s Locker
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« Reply #84 on: April 12, 2021, 08:49:19 PM »

What a clusterf[Inks]. Anybody but Fujimori, I guess.
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Lustration2021
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« Reply #85 on: April 13, 2021, 01:16:39 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 01:25:40 PM by Korwinist »

Rafael López Aliaga making noises about supporting Castillo and telling his voters not to write him off as a Chavista Shining Path supporting terrorist. Castillo is more socially conservative than Fujimori but still a bit surprising. Then again, RLA really dislikes Fujimori on a personal level so I suppose it isn't that surprising.

Still, it means Castillo has just enough support in the legislature to avoid instant impeachment if he wins the second round.

Also he promised to free the ethnocacerist leader Antauro Humala from jail and to ban abortion and gay marriage.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #86 on: April 13, 2021, 01:42:50 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 01:55:42 PM by Red Velvet »

Not surprising at all that RLA prefers Castillo over Fujimori. The only reason I assumed the vote would be close is because I already thought many of his voters would go to Castillo. Probably the same for Veronika Mendoza ones but even those may be more resistant to both Castillo and Fujimori.

People forget that Castillo still represents the anti-establishment in this election promising big change, while Fujimori IS the corrupt establishment in Peruvian politics. The anti-system sentiment for RLA more populist voters can be easily be stronger than any policy-oriented opinion.

Add to that the fact Lescano voters will probably be in the middle, likely won’t favor in big numbers either Castillo or Fujimori. What base Keiko can significantly expand from? I imagine it’s De Soto voters and mostly because of an anti-Castillo vote.

We really need polls because this could end up being as close of an election like the previous two. I don’t underestimate anti-leftist sentiment in Peru but I also don’t underestimate anti-Fujimori one either. Polls will help clear whether anti-leftist or anti-Fujimori sentiment is stronger. Because that’s what will decide the election.
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PSOL
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« Reply #87 on: April 13, 2021, 02:10:26 PM »


Unsurprising
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Laki
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« Reply #88 on: April 13, 2021, 02:52:59 PM »

I still don't understand this poll and the results

Peru, CPI poll:

"What kind of regime do you believe is the worst that could happen to the country?"

Chavista: 35%
Communist: 24%
Populist: 12%
Ultraliberal: 8%
Fascist: 5%
Ultraconservative: 4%

Unsure: 12%

Fieldwork: 6-11 March 2021
Sample: 1,300
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #89 on: April 13, 2021, 03:00:47 PM »

Yeah this has potential to become an Indigenous people of Peru vs privileged elites in metropolitan Lima so easily.

Where Indigenous people are in Peru:



Places with >50% indigenous population, in the south near the Bolivian border, ALL voted for Castillo in big numbers. He also won in his province located in the North.


Also here are the separated results between Lima province (larger area) and the Metropolitan Lima (the capital):


The larger province behaved just like the overall results, with Castillo 1st and Keiko 2nd.

The capital chose De Soto and RLA. Keiko finished 3rd and Castillo didn’t even make top 5!

It’s like the city of Lima is a completely different world from all the rest of the country. These are shocking gaps.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #90 on: April 13, 2021, 03:14:54 PM »

I still don't understand this poll and the results

Peru, CPI poll:

"What kind of regime do you believe is the worst that could happen to the country?"

Chavista: 35%
Communist: 24%
Populist: 12%
Ultraliberal: 8%
Fascist: 5%
Ultraconservative: 4%

Unsure: 12%

Fieldwork: 6-11 March 2021
Sample: 1,300

The polls didn’t even show Castillo in the top 6!

It’s clear that polling companies in Peru oversample Lima and are not that representative of the whole country, especially Indigenous communities.
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bigic
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« Reply #91 on: April 13, 2021, 04:04:08 PM »

I still don't understand this poll and the results

Peru, CPI poll:

"What kind of regime do you believe is the worst that could happen to the country?"

Chavista: 35%
Communist: 24%
Populist: 12%
Ultraliberal: 8%
Fascist: 5%
Ultraconservative: 4%

Unsure: 12%

Fieldwork: 6-11 March 2021
Sample: 1,300
I don't think that the results of this poll and Castillo being the first-placed candidate contradict each other, because Castillo has won less than 20% of the vote. (The field in Peru is extremely fragmented, and in such situations the two-round system is inadequate.) And voters do often simultaneously hold contradictory political stances!

The polls didn’t even show Castillo in the top 6!
AFAIK Castillo has surged in the last days of the campaign. And I'm recalling that there were even polls where he was the second.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #92 on: April 13, 2021, 04:19:48 PM »

The other thing with not having any base of support in the Lima area is that about 40% of the vote comes just from the Lima province...
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #93 on: April 13, 2021, 04:26:27 PM »

The other thing with not having any base of support in the Lima area is that about 40% of the vote comes just from the Lima province...

Castillo won in Lima province though. It’s metropolitan area (the capital) that didn’t even know who he was.

Metropolitan Lima is probably still 33% though.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #94 on: April 13, 2021, 08:16:02 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 08:32:34 PM by Oryxslayer »



Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.
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Hash
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« Reply #95 on: April 13, 2021, 08:17:38 PM »

Results by province (and districts for metropolitan Lima), shaded:



National results excluding expats atm: Castillo 19.1%, Fujimori 13.37%, López Aliaga 11.62%, de Soto 11.6%, Lescano 9.1%, Mendoza 7.8%, Acuña 6.1%, Urresti 5.7%, Forsyth 5.6%

Lima metropolitan area (province): de Soto 17%, López Aliaga 16.8%, Fujimori 13.6%, Mendoza 8.2%, Urresti 7.7%, Forsyth 7.3%, Castillo 7.2%, Lescano 6.8%

As always a pretty big difference between Lima v. the rest of Peru, and also the Costa v. the Sierra.

Apologies for the similar shading for lakes and López Aliaga.

De Soto and López Aliaga were both clearly the candidates of the urban/Lima upper middle-class, as can be seen with their results in districts like San Isidro in Lima. Castillo did very well in areas with large indigenous populations in the Sierra, with only a few exceptions like Puno (where Lescano is from, and won the province but not the department) and Cusco (where Mendoza did best, finishing second to Castillo), as well as his native department of Cajamarca. Acuña won the department of La Libertad where he was previously governor.

Castillo won in Lima province though. It’s metropolitan area (the capital) that didn’t even know who he was.

Metropolitan Lima is probably still 33% though.

Actually, he didn't. Those were exit poll numbers. Fujimori won the department of Lima without Lima province with 20.7%, with Castillo in second with 14.8% and López Aliaga with 11.9%. But Lima province made up 91% of the department's votes.
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Hash
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« Reply #96 on: April 13, 2021, 08:20:05 PM »

For comparison, last month I did this ethnic map based on 2017 census data:

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Lumine
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« Reply #97 on: April 13, 2021, 08:25:14 PM »

I believe the Peruvian constitution allows for an election to be declared void if the null and blank votes go beyond 66%. Obviously that's not an attainable number, but I wonder if it will help fuel a lot of protest votes against Fujimori and Castillo. After all, it got to 17% in Ecuador...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #98 on: April 13, 2021, 08:31:49 PM »

I believe the Peruvian constitution allows for an election to be declared void if the null and blank votes go beyond 66%. Obviously that's not an attainable number, but I wonder if it will help fuel a lot of protest votes against Fujimori and Castillo. After all, it got to 17% in Ecuador...

Its not the best comparison. Round 1 had 1.34 million blank votes, and round 2 had about 1.93 mill. Even with Pachakutik endorsing a blank vote less than half of their voters went and did it. It would be hard and require candidates to actually endorse such a vote, but everything suggests they or their voters will want to deny the devil - whichever that may be - from getting power.
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warandwar
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« Reply #99 on: April 13, 2021, 11:20:01 PM »



Made this map for an upcoming DDHQ newsletter/article, figured it may be appreciated here. It highlights just how much voters are available in just Lima and the Callao suburb. It also shows how hard it will be for Castillo to just get the math to work out. Yes he dominated the southern, more-Indigenous areas, and in similar rural/extraction areas. He'll continue to sweep these areas in two moths, given that the Mendoza and Lescano voters are likely to identify the same and perceive the same grievances with the government. But he, and the others, just didn't do that well in the areas with the voters, and a campaign of rural socialist resentment won't exactly be the best at reaching these audiences. His only hope is to try and play for a 'change' electorate, but Fujimori can probably make a similar argument that the country has only gone downhill since 2000 and its time to change back to what worked. There's also the potential that the number of valid votes just plummets because nobody wants to decide between the two extremes, which would make everything a total crapshoot.
Only issue is that for all who still admire el chino, just as many credit Fujimori for ruining sh**t. Remember that a central plank of Castillo's (and Mendoza's) is doing away with the (post self-coup) 1993 Constitution. A referendum on the Constitution would be a good strategy for the second round for Castillo, i think. And Keiko's law and order sh**t took a tumble with Odobrecht and PF's (generally sh**t) behavior in congress. Lima slums will go for her, but metropolitan Lima's a different story.
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