Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues
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Author Topic: Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues  (Read 65938 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #650 on: June 08, 2021, 06:42:27 PM »
« edited: June 08, 2021, 06:58:04 PM by Mike88 »

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

I was aware of the term chota, not very common here in Portugal however, but PPK is a new one for me.

PPK is pronounced exactly like “pepeca” which is usually a child-friendly name parents give to vagina and teach them to speak so that they don’t just say the word out loud and start an embarrassing situation.

Ah, right, here we use more "pipi", which is basically how you pronounce the initials PP in english.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #651 on: June 08, 2021, 06:43:31 PM »

A bit off topic, but I just think about this: in case Keiko Fujimori lose the election (which is appearing very likely now), she would join the very exclusive club of ‘politicians having lost three presidential runoffs in a raw, each time against a different candidate’ whose, to my knowledge, the only other member is Álvaro Noboa from neighboring Ecuador. Noboa was firstly defeated in 1998 presidential runoff 48.8-51.2 by Jamil Mahuad (who was overthrown two years later in a civic-military coup), was again defeated in 2002 45.2-54.8 by Lucio Gutiérrez (who was impeached and forced to flee the country in 2005) and once more defeated in 2006 43.3-56.7 by Rafael Correa. He made two other presidential bids, one in 2009 when he placed third in the first round with 11.4%, and another one in 2013 when he placed fifth and received a pitiful 3.7%. He unsuccessfully tried to once more embarrass himself run for president this year but his candidacy was rejected by the electoral authorities.

The comparison with Noboa is especially unflattering for Fujimori because the Ecuadorian banana tycoon is a spectacularly catastrophic politician (as exemplified by the fact he became more and more unpopular at each presidential bid and that he received his best result when actively supported by Abdalá Bucaram, a literal populist buffoon who had lasted six months as president before being removed from office for his corruption, incompetence and whimsical behavior, then living in exile) who literally tried to buy the election with massive distribution of ‘freebies’ if not bank notes to voters but never had any coherent political strategy (the fact he just doesn’t care at all about what is happening in politics between each presidential election doesn’t help; I remember having read an article quite accurately describing his presidential bids as ‘a hobby’) nor half-credible platform in addition of being exceptionally uncharismatic and a nutcase who became increasingly hard to take seriously to the point he is now widely seen as a living political meme.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #652 on: June 08, 2021, 07:19:15 PM »

A bit off topic, but I just think about this: in case Keiko Fujimori lose the election (which is appearing very likely now), she would join the very exclusive club of ‘politicians having lost three presidential runoffs in a raw, each time against a different candidate’ whose, to my knowledge, the only other member is Álvaro Noboa from neighboring Ecuador. Noboa was firstly defeated in 1998 presidential runoff 48.8-51.2 by Jamil Mahuad (who was overthrown two years later in a civic-military coup), was again defeated in 2002 45.2-54.8 by Lucio Gutiérrez (who was impeached and forced to flee the country in 2005) and once more defeated in 2006 43.3-56.7 by Rafael Correa. He made two other presidential bids, one in 2009 when he placed third in the first round with 11.4%, and another one in 2013 when he placed fifth and received a pitiful 3.7%. He unsuccessfully tried to once more embarrass himself run for president this year but his candidacy was rejected by the electoral authorities.

The comparison with Noboa is especially unflattering for Fujimori because the Ecuadorian banana tycoon is a spectacularly catastrophic politician (as exemplified by the fact he became more and more unpopular at each presidential bid and that he received his best result when actively supported by Abdalá Bucaram, a literal populist buffoon who had lasted six months as president before being removed from office for his corruption, incompetence and whimsical behavior, then living in exile) who literally tried to buy the election with massive distribution of ‘freebies’ if not bank notes to voters but never had any coherent political strategy (the fact he just doesn’t care at all about what is happening in politics between each presidential election doesn’t help; I remember having read an article quite accurately describing his presidential bids as ‘a hobby’) nor half-credible platform in addition of being exceptionally uncharismatic and a nutcase who became increasingly hard to take seriously to the point he is now widely seen as a living political meme.

She will be seen as the biggest failure in Peruvian political history.

And speaking of her likely loss, the overall margin is 107k votes in favor of Castillo, over 170k within Peru itself. We are approaching the land of mathematical impossibility.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #653 on: June 08, 2021, 10:46:05 PM »

We've crossed the threshold of impossibility for Keiko by now: Castillo leads by 92k and based on my calculations, there are only 90k votes remaining (domestic and expat combined). Given the JNE votes can't/won't be win by either candidate overwhelmingly, there is mathematically no pathway for Fujimori at this point.

Hopefully we'll start seeing some media calls soon.
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Nathan
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« Reply #654 on: June 08, 2021, 10:52:48 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 10:56:33 PM by 1,066,892 Likud voters can't be wrong! »

Miami is coming in. Castillo is getting obliterated in it 93-7, but the turnout is only slightly better than in the rest of the US (about 34%).
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #655 on: June 08, 2021, 11:11:26 PM »

Miami is coming in. Castillo is getting obliterated in it 93-7, but the turnout is only slightly better than in the rest of the US (about 34%).

It was already expected Florida would be the strongest vote for Keiko, considering that state has a very specific type of immigrant, way richer and many are really right-wing. Miami is the city where all the far-right people of the continent go meet lol

Miami - 92%
Tampa - 90%
Charlotte, Dallas, Houston - 84%
Los Angeles, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego - 82%
Atlanta - 80%
Chicago, New Jersey  - 79%
San Antonio, Seattle - 77%
Washington DC - 76%
Salt Lake City - 75%
Boston, San Francisco - 74%
NYC - 73%
Denver, Hartford - 72%
Oklahoma - 71%

There is a significant gap that exists between Miami and Tampa to all the others. Between 70-80% is something many other American countries had, like Mexico, Canada and Colombia for example. But 90% is something you only find in a very conservative country like Japan.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #656 on: June 08, 2021, 11:22:40 PM »

Looks certain that Castillo’s margin will be bigger than PPK’s in 2016 when all is said and done.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #657 on: June 08, 2021, 11:32:53 PM »

Miami is coming in. Castillo is getting obliterated in it 93-7, but the turnout is only slightly better than in the rest of the US (about 34%).

It was already expected Florida would be the strongest vote for Keiko, considering that state has a very specific type of immigrant, way richer and many are really right-wing. Miami is the city where all the far-right people of the continent go meet lol

Miami - 92%
Tampa - 90%
Charlotte, Dallas, Houston - 84%
Los Angeles, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego - 82%
Atlanta - 80%
Chicago, New Jersey  - 79%
San Antonio, Seattle - 77%
Washington DC - 76%
Salt Lake City - 75%
Boston, San Francisco - 74%
NYC - 73%
Denver, Hartford - 72%
Oklahoma - 71%

There is a significant gap that exists between Miami and Tampa to all the others. Between 70-80% is something many other American countries had, like Mexico, Canada and Colombia for example. But 90% is something you only find in a very conservative country like Japan.
Oklahoma at only 71% Keiko is a huge lol considering the state as a whole is conservative on just anything you can think of
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #658 on: June 08, 2021, 11:34:25 PM »

With the Miami/Tampa dump in the last hour, Keiko netted 4k votes: Castillo's lead is now down to 88k. But there are still only 85k votes left...
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Nathan
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« Reply #659 on: June 08, 2021, 11:42:42 PM »

Another Miami vote dump. Castillo's lead down to 85k.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #660 on: June 09, 2021, 12:05:14 AM »

I actually made a weighting blunder on my earlier domestic figures: the situation is even grimmer for Keiko.

Castillo has a projected 24k net margin among the domestic outstanding vote (not 12-13k), of which there are approximately 40k total. This would bring him to a 108k vote margin (84k+24k) before any additional expats are counted. If Keiko gets 65-66% of remaining expat vote, then she can enjoy the privilege of keeping Castillo under a 100k margin.

Unless there are some huge discrepancies with the JNE, Castillo will win by 95-105k votes.
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Sestak
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« Reply #661 on: June 09, 2021, 12:06:59 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 12:12:49 AM by President Sestak »


Some quick calculations Adam and I did give that the remainder in Peru (overwhelmingly in La Convencion, Cusco) would net Castillo around 24K.

If Keiko gets 75% of the remaining expat vote, then, she loses by 93K. If she gets 70%, loses by 97K. Current expat totals holding would take it to 99K and 65% breaks the 100K mark.

Also worth noting that 40% of the remaining expatriate stations are in Italy, where Castillo currently holds a slim lead.

Edit: Made a mistake. Italy now to 60% reporting and Keiko has indeed taken the lead there...by a point and a half. And after that result Italy is 40% of the remaining vote.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #662 on: June 09, 2021, 12:25:47 AM »

Julio Guzmán is retiring from politics.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #663 on: June 09, 2021, 12:29:19 AM »

I put $0.75 in on PredictIt that Castillo would win by less than 1%. (This was back when he was up by 10-20 in all the polls). Walked out with $14. Proud of myself.
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Sestak
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« Reply #664 on: June 09, 2021, 12:36:48 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 12:42:53 AM by President Sestak »

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153 (province is 85-15 Castillo thus far)
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23 (68-32 C)
Satipo, Junin 1  (55-45 C)

Italy 137 (51-49 K)
Venezuela 69 (Nothing reported)
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1) [Tampa is 91-9 K, Miami 93-7]
Japan 42 (93-7 K)
France 35 (51-49 C with barely anything reported)
Spain 8 (62-38 K)
Brazil 2 (53-47 K)
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Nathan
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« Reply #665 on: June 09, 2021, 12:40:51 AM »

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23
Satipo, Junin 1

Italy 137
Venezuela 69
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1)
Japan 42
France 35
Spain 8
Brazil 2

Does this distinguish between "ACTAS PROCESADAS" and "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS"?
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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #666 on: June 09, 2021, 12:45:36 AM »

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23
Satipo, Junin 1

Italy 137
Venezuela 69
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1)
Japan 42
France 35
Spain 8
Brazil 2

Does this distinguish between "ACTAS PROCESADAS" and "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS"?

No; only counts Actas Por Procesar. This is everything remaining not including the "sent to JNE" precincts.
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Nathan
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« Reply #667 on: June 09, 2021, 12:49:15 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 12:53:37 AM by 1,066,892 Likud voters can't be wrong! »

ALL REMAINING STATIONS:

La Convencion, Cusco 153
Datem del Maranon, Loreto 23
Satipo, Junin 1

Italy 137
Venezuela 69
USA 53 (Miami 43, Tampa 8, Charlotte 1, Hartford 1)
Japan 42
France 35
Spain 8
Brazil 2

Does this distinguish between "ACTAS PROCESADAS" and "ACTAS CONTABILIZADAS"?

No; only counts Actas Por Procesar. This is everything remaining not including the "sent to JNE" precincts.

Are Actas that have been Procesar'd but not Contabilizar'd those that have been sent to JNE?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #668 on: June 09, 2021, 12:49:28 AM »

Castillo is on track to win with more than double PPK's winning margin in 2016. Impressive.
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skbl17
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« Reply #669 on: June 09, 2021, 01:01:22 AM »

Castillo has declared victory:

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Frodo
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« Reply #670 on: June 09, 2021, 01:02:21 AM »

Castillo has declared victory:



He better hope this is not a 1948 situation in which the media prematurely declared one candidate the victor that was later proven wrong....  Tongue
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #671 on: June 09, 2021, 01:03:25 AM »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #672 on: June 09, 2021, 01:39:30 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2021, 01:53:54 AM by Unbeatable Titan Eva Copa »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #673 on: June 09, 2021, 01:58:25 AM »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.

Yes, as far as overall turnout numbers go, they are included. See the formula on the page:



Currently, this produces 84727 and 86488, respectively. This produces a non-JNE number of 97.96%.

Actas procesadas are currently 85965: as a share of 86488, that gives you the 99.40% that's shown at the top of the elections page.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #674 on: June 09, 2021, 02:09:21 AM »

So the reality is that this JNE issue may be bigger than previously thought. Domestically, two-thirds of stations sent to the JNE were due to contested ballots (by campaigns/observers/etc) or material errors. A bit over 70% of these stations are in Lima. As I heard, Peru Libre was being quite liberal with ballot challenges, which means if all of these stations' votes have left to be counted, the domestic JNE totals could skew quite substantially to Keiko. The expat stations won't have such skewing because there aren't campaign presences and meddling along the same lines.

Enough for her to win? I doubt it. But if she's sitting at 70% or more among these combined JNE totals (domestic + expat), it might not be over.

Aren’t they already included in the Actas Procesadas? That’s what I was about to say in answer to Nathan’s question - contabilizadas + observadas (sent to the JNE) = procesadas. Am I making a mistake somewhere?

Edit: looking at the ONPE they are definitely included in the Actas Procesadas, but not in the Actas Contabilizadas. So they technically do have left to be counted, but I assume they’re already included in the topline ONPE numbers that we’ve all been working with.

Yes, as far as overall turnout numbers go, they are included. See the formula on the page:



Currently, this produces 84727 and 86488, respectively. This produces a non-JNE number of 97.96%.

Actas procesadas are currently 85965: as a share of 86488, that gives you the 99.40% that's shown at the top of the elections page.

Right, so I don’t think there’s a hidden batch of Keiko votes waiting to be counted that we don’t know about, unless the JNE reviews all the challenged votes and gives 100% of them to her. It seems like it really is over.
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