Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Willing to say this one’s callable at this point. US turnout not good enough for Keiko, and in the two next biggest expat prizes (Spain and Chile) do not seem to have the margin to pull her back.

With almost of the quarter of the stations remaining still being domestic, Castillo has what he needs to pull out of reach.

Pretty much. The Peru vote left probably “cancels” the US vote and the balance will be Chile (where she’s having almost non-existent margins) and Italy/France (which will not have big margins combined with big quantity of vote like the US).

There’s also Japan though but I’m not sure how many Peruvians are there. Definetely not as many as in US?

I made a post about this a day back, but, if we are assuming the station counts fo be representative, then:

There are 3440 total international stations. The country with the most is the US, with just over 1000.

The only others that are over even 100 stations are, from largest to smallest:

Argentina
Spain
Chile
Italy


Spain and Chile don’t look amazing for Keiko (even though she’ll probably do better in remaining Chile). Italy we don’t know yet but I don’t think Italy + the small places will be enough.

Was going to post "This is one inch away from callable right now. Fujimori's numbers in the US are abysmal for her. Only thing that leaves me hesitating is the rest of the expat vote, which I don't necessarily know enough about". But seeing how few stations the other countries are has changed my mind.
I've seen enough. I now feel 100% certain Castillo will win when all the votes are counted.

[Sestak]

Number of stations remaining:

Peru Domestic: 748

United States: 638
Spain: 493
Chile: 337
Italy: 321

All other countries: 235

[Adam Griffin]

Based on station proportions holding steady, there are 185k expat votes remaining. If Keiko won 80%, she'd net 111k votes. Given she's currently down by 87k and by the same exercise there are an average of 55k net Castillo votes remaining in Peru, she'd still lose by 31k votes.

She needs something like 88% of the remaining expat vote to tie it up based on the above modeling. This is all but over unless there is unprecedented turnout in the US and/or an unprecedently severe discrepancy between what has been counted and what will be counted in Chile and Spain (and/or in Peru).
 

[Red Velvet]

Number of stations remaining:

Peru Domestic: 748

United States: 638
Spain: 493
Chile: 337
Italy: 321

All other countries: 235

119 of these 235 others is Japan.

[Sestak]

Number of stations remaining:

Peru Domestic: 748

United States: 638
Spain: 493
Chile: 337
Italy: 321

All other countries: 235

119 of these 235 others is Japan.

Ah.

Not great, but shouldn't matter.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Yeah, this feels like a November 2020 situation, where after some initial confusion the eventual result has only grown more and more apparent, but the media is too cautious to officially call it.

[jeron]

Number of stations remaining:

Peru Domestic: 748

United States: 638
Spain: 493
Chile: 337
Italy: 321

All other countries: 235

119 of these 235 others is Japan.

There are 119 in total, with 43 left to be counted

[jeron]

More bad news for Keiko. The 40 stations from Turin have been counted. Castillo leads 51.7-48.2%. Wait and see of this holds in the rest of Italy.

[Biden 2024]

Absurd this hasn’t been called yet.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So who do we think will be Castillo’s (first) PM?

[Adam Griffin]

Another US dump from New York (probably the second biggest US group) has 143/144 stations reporting and 52% of stations nationally reporting (up from 39%). 7,930 new US votes in all.

73.43-26.57 Keiko in NY; drops US margin for Keiko to 77.67-22.33 (from 78.74-21.26 - though obviously expands her US raw vote margin; from around ~19k to ~23k). Eligible US turnout is now 27.8% (down from 28.3%).

This leaves Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Hartford, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle & Tampa (+1 NY station), and Miami is the only likely one remaining to have a sizeable vote.

Based on adjustments and what remains in Peru, Keiko now needs 91-92% of global expats to tie.

[Adam Griffin]

Los Angeles, San Diego and Phoenix came in: basically 82-18 Keiko combined and around 9.5k votes.

[FrancoAgo]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

[seb_pard]

Now 98% of Chile in (44.8k votes)

Fujimori 56.4% (23.6k)
Castillo 43.6% (18.3k)

[Oryxslayer]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

more than what??

I guess he means the comparatively larger number of boxes sent to the JNE because of some administrative error. However these will likely be negligible partisan wise, cause errors should be random and not correlated to anything.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

more than what??

I guess he means the comparatively larger number of boxes sent to the JNE because of some administrative error. However these will likely be negligible partisan wise, cause errors should be random and not correlated to anything.

Unless, of course, one thinks that Perú Libre is committing a systematic fraud in Lima.

[Red Velvet]

Now 98% of Chile in (44.8k votes)

Fujimori 56.4% (23.6k)
Castillo 43.6% (18.3k)

Lmao that makes Brazil the most left-wing country in the continent after Cuba! Thanks Bozo for this accomplishment!

Edit: Pedro Castillo won with 51% in São Paulo, the largest city of all the continent!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

more than what??

I guess he means the comparatively larger number of boxes sent to the JNE because of some administrative error. However these will likely be negligible partisan wise, cause errors should be random and not correlated to anything.

Unless, of course, one thinks that Perú Libre is committing a systematic fraud in Lima.

No no, you see, the countryside is where Peru Libre is doing the fraud! There's no way Keiko, the people's candidate, could possibly be losing Puno! Evil socialist leftists showing no respect for the  law, just like in Maduro's Venezuela! Sad!
/s

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402365905363820545

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New vote dump from within the country (looks like Huancavelica?) pushes Castillo’s lead back up to over 80,000 votes. Lead within Peru is close to 150,000.

[buritobr]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

Here chota is slang for penis, there were a lot of jokes about the "Debate en Chota" even in the larger newspapers

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ayacucho went from 90% to 95% in. Castillo’s overall lead is now over 92,000.

[Mike88]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

I was aware of the term chota, not very common here in Portugal however, but PPK is a new one for me.

[Red Velvet]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

I was aware of the term chota, not very common here in Portugal however, but PPK is a new one for me.

PPK is pronounced exactly like “pepeca” which is usually a child-friendly name parents give to vagina and teach them to speak so that they don’t just say the word out loud and start an embarrassing situation.