Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[buritobr]

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

[PSOL]

For me to cease the maymays for a second, I doubt the Peruvian congress would impeach Keiko for two main reasons. One—that doing so would embolden the Left to take power—and two—that Keiko would organize to hold onto power through her connections with the Peruvian security services.

Given the high rise of commodity prices and the need to end this pandemic, KF has a chance to remain in office for a long, long time while building a web of allies grabbing onto her coattails.

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

The Peruvian Left arguably has 43 seats, the Right 62. The Center in this scenario would not want a resurgent left to have another chance now.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo will certainly get impeached considering how politically unstable Peru is. All presidents get a tragic fate since what, the 80s? Which sucks of course because I don’t think there will be much meaningful change he can do, but he can try to form alliances with the center and make compromises to survive longer. But Idk how viable that is.

But even if they kick him out, at least the political symbolism of rejecting Fujimori is there and she won’t be able to pardon her father. 3 consecutive times a loser!

[Adam Griffin]

As of the 99.06% update, here are all provinces with outstanding votes (16 in total):

I went through and weighted outstanding vote in these 16 provinces, matching the margins to the votes in each province already counted.

End result?

Castillo 73.00% (92705)
Fujimori 27.00% (34303)

This would point to a Castillo domestic win of 183,000 votes.

Castillo 8634705 (50.54%)
Fujimori 8451376 (49.46%)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm starting to feel comfortable calling this for Castillo. Not there yet though...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm starting to feel comfortable calling this for Castillo. Not there yet though...

Yeah, he’s at a 125k vote lead in Peru with 1% left to count. Keiko will need a Miami miracle to pull this out.

[Biden 2024]

Surely if Castillo is removed by Congress we'll see actual violent civil conflict?

[PSOL]

Surely if Castillo is removed by Congress we'll see actual violent civil conflict?

The military will probably work hard on behalf of Keiko for the cover of a parliamentary coup, yes.

[Oryxslayer]

Surely if Castillo is removed by Congress we'll see actual violent civil conflict?

The military will probably work hard on behalf of Keiko for the cover of a parliamentary coup, yes.

It probably wouldn't be Keiko at that point. A coup needs - parliamentary or not - to demonstrate that it can do more than just kick out the opposing other. There needs to be something that comes next, be it stability, recovery, investigations, reforms, accountability, and the like. A potential three-time loser with criminal allegations, jail time, and poor popular trust is not the right figurehead. Her brand was much better after 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is going on now?

[EastwoodS]

What do you all think the final margin out of the US will be? 85-15 Keiko?

[Derpist]

What do you all think the final margin out of the US will be? 85-15 Keiko?

Canadian votes are in and apparently they went 77-23 for Fujimori. Castillo clearly has this.

[EastwoodS]

What do you all think the final margin out of the US will be? 85-15 Keiko?

Canadian votes are in and apparently they went 77-23 for Fujimori. Castillo clearly has this.

I know I’m just asking what the final results out of the US might be

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo Keiko than it was three hours ago yesterday.

[Logical]

Lower than average turnout in Miraflores and San Isidro

[Red Velvet]

Brazil vote is almost finished counting and it’s only 53% Fujimori! Castillo almost managed to get a win here and got a better margin than in Argentina or Uruguay

Happy for Peruvian-Brazilians but I suspect just like there might be a “Piñera effect” for the results in Chile (where currently Fujimori wins with barely over 50%), there probably was a “Bolsonaro effect” here that contributed these people to vote to the left of the rest of the whole continent.

Like, it makes sense. If you live in a country where Bolsonaro is president or with the whole movement that happened in Chile, you probably will be more scared of the right-wingers forming a dictatorship than the average “communist ghost” that is sold in other countries.

So far in Americas:

Cuba - 73% Castillo
Chile - 50% Fujimori (only 14% counted though)
Brazil - 53% Fujimori
Uruguay - 55%
Argentina - 57%
Ecuador - 65%
Bolívia - 65%
Colombia - 72%
Paraguay - 74%
Mexico - 75%
Canada - 76%
USA - 79% (only 28% counted)

[Lord Halifax]

For me to cease the maymays for a second, I doubt the Peruvian congress would impeach Keiko for two main reasons. One—that doing so would embolden the Left to take power—and two—that Keiko would organize to hold onto power through her connections with the Peruvian security services.

Given the high rise of commodity prices and the need to end this pandemic, KF has a chance to remain in office for a long, long time while building a web of allies grabbing onto her coattails.

There are 130 seats in the Congress. Castillo's party has 37. Fujimori's party has 24. Both have a small share of the Congress, and the risk of impeachment for both is not negligible.

The Peruvian Left arguably has 43 seats, the Right 62. The Center in this scenario would not want a resurgent left to have another chance now.

You need a supermajority of 87 out of 130 to convict a political official, so if the Left can stay united (I know that's probably not realistic..) all centrist and right wing MPs would need to vote for it, so Castillo bribing a couple of centrists would be enough to block his impeachment.

[Adam Griffin]

Big US dump (plus some other internationals), bringing Castillo's lead to 86875 votes overall. Around 19k new US votes (plus around 10k from elsewhere). 39% of US stations now reporting.

Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, New Orleans, Oklahoma, SLC, San Antonio & DC are now fully reported (along with NJ from the previous update). Hilariously enough, OKC was the most pro-Castillo of the bunch (71.86-28.14 Fujimori).

Outstanding US stations (all of which are 100% out): Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Hartford, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle & Tampa.

There are 638 US stations remaining, 1386 expat stations outstanding elsewhere and 748 Peruvian stations outstanding.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Chile was the predominant share of the other international dump. Now at 7484 votes (14% of stations), with Fujimori at 50.53 and Castillo at 49.47 overall. That means what dumped was only like ~55% Fujimori...? Not great for her if that holds.

[Red Velvet]

Looks like Chile was the predominant share of the other international dump. Now at 7484 votes (14% of stations), with Fujimori at 50.53 and Castillo at 49.47 overall. That means what dumped was only like ~55% Fujimori...? Not great for her if that holds.

Keiko needed higher margins in Chile and higher turnout in US (closer to 40% than 30%).

Gap will be closed but she probably still loses in the end by a narrower margin than 2016.

[Sestak]

Willing to say this one’s callable at this point. US turnout not good enough for Keiko, and in the two next biggest expat prizes (Spain and Chile) do not seem to have the margin to pull her back.

With almost of the quarter of the stations remaining still being domestic, Castillo has what he needs to pull out of reach.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many expat votes are left?

[Adam Griffin]

Basically everything left in Chile is defined as "Santiago" (334/337 stations; the other 3 are Concepcion). Fujimori will likely improve. All of the north and all of the south seem to be reporting.

[Red Velvet]

Willing to say this one’s callable at this point. US turnout not good enough for Keiko, and in the two next biggest expat prizes (Spain and Chile) do not seem to have the margin to pull her back.

With almost of the quarter of the stations remaining still being domestic, Castillo has what he needs to pull out of reach.

Pretty much. The Peru vote left probably “cancels” the US vote and the balance will be Chile (where she’s having almost non-existent margins) and Italy/France (which will not have big margins combined with big quantity of vote like the US).

There’s also Japan though but I’m not sure how many Peruvians are there. Definetely not as many as in US?

[Sestak]

Willing to say this one’s callable at this point. US turnout not good enough for Keiko, and in the two next biggest expat prizes (Spain and Chile) do not seem to have the margin to pull her back.

With almost of the quarter of the stations remaining still being domestic, Castillo has what he needs to pull out of reach.

Pretty much. The Peru vote left probably “cancels” the US vote and the balance will be Chile (where she’s having almost non-existent margins) and Italy/France (which will not have big margins combined with big quantity of vote like the US).

There’s also Japan though but I’m not sure how many Peruvians are there. Definetely not as many as in US?

I made a post about this a day back, but, if we are assuming the station counts fo be representative, then:

There are 3440 total international stations. The country with the most is the US, with just over 1000.

The only others that are over even 100 stations are, from largest to smallest:

Argentina
Spain
Chile
Italy


Spain and Chile don’t look amazing for Keiko (even though she’ll probably do better in remaining Chile). Italy we don’t know yet but I don’t think Italy + the small places will be enough.