Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New Jersey now basically all in. This accounts for 1/6 (16%) of all stations in the US.

Remains 80-20 Fujimori (she slipped a touch but not noticeable) and 28% turnout.


Extreme Press X To Doubt re the people here insisting the US would be at 40% turnout.

Really says something that New Jersey alone is 1/6 of all stations in the entire US...

New Jersey is actually the largest of the "states" they've divided the US into in terms of number of stations. The "State of Miami" is second with a few less.

Do any maps exist of the "states" they are working with?

[Lumine]

What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.

Honestly; I doubt Forsyth, Aliaga, or Mendoza would do any better.

Well, I'd disagree. Mendoza would probably be vulnerable to a fair amount of scaremongering, but I can't see scaring the hell out of a substantial group that's voting for Fujimori solely out of how extreme they perceive Castillo to be. And if it were Castillo-Mendoza, Castillo wouldn't be able to count on the anti-Fujimori vote and I have to imagine the right would vote for her if only to stop him.

Forsyth and López Aliaga, in spite of their glaring, painfully evident flaws, would be free of Keiko's sheer baggage - at least in terms of public perception -, wouldn't be so easy to characterize as more of the same, and would be seen as far less controversial a choice against Castillo. And against Fujimori, both would still hold a clear advantage (López Aliaga because, like it not, he appears to have some residual skill at playing populist, and Forsyth seems adaptable enough).

Let's not forget Keiko is only being competitive right now against an unrepentant Marxist running a chaotic campaign whilst being (fairly or unfairly) portrayed as linked to Sendero Luminoso, whereas Castillo is struggling against the personified embodiment of political corruption. Neither scenario points out towards two political titans.

[warandwar]

New Jersey is not a "third" of the tri state area. That is not how the "tri state area" works. Peruvians live in New Jersey and in Queens. They by and large dont live in Connecticut.

[Red Velvet]

Turnout in the foreign countries like US and Spain is lower than expected and in Spain margins are closer to 65%

OMG I think Castillo really has this!

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402075746663731205?s=20

In case you were wondering if US cultural influence is fading worldwide, I present you an example of our latest creation: the denial of electoral legitimacy. Can fit in any political arena, be it Israeli or South American.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My gut instinct yesterday, before the polls closed, was that Castillo would likely win by a very narrow margin.

[PSOL]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

[Red Velvet]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

It’s mostly the socioeconomic level as well.

Latinos in Miami for example tend to be very wealthy and richer than Latino immigrants in US as a whole for example, reason why the margin for Keiko there will tend to be bigger. And Peruvians who immigrate to closer Latin American countries for opportunities (Argentina, Chile, Brazil) tend to be poorer than the ones who can go to US/Europe, Japan or even more distant Latin American countries such as Mexico.

And for Latin American elections, class tends to be the defining factor.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402075746663731205?s=20
In case you were wondering if US cultural influence is fading worldwide, I present you an example of our latest creation: the denial of electoral legitimacy. Can fit in any political arena, be it Israeli or South American.

Not surprising that she’s claiming fraud so late, right in the moment that it becomes clear that she will lose lol

When she was out on the front, there was no fraud. These people are a joke.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

Trying to limit this as much as possible to avoid spamming up the thread: you said "dwarfs". 100k does not really "dwarf" 76k and, in any case, it is strange to me to separate New Jersey from New York.

I was more commenting on the strange assumption propagated in this thread that Peruvians = Miami and that Peruvians in the US are all rich expats with extreme right-wing views. This isn't remotely true. Miami is just one destination among many for Peruvians, Peruvians are very working class and they aren't that engaged with Peruvian politics (see: sub-30% turnout in NJ). Overall, this assumption being propagated has mostly served to misinform lots of people about the character of Peruvian-Americans.

[seb_pard]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

The thing for me is the following (as a Latin American living in the US) is that the Latin American that go to NYC area can go for several reason (despite working as an economic migrant): Work in financial sector (high chance of voting right), but also working in the healthcare sector, academia, NGO and other areas that relatively skew to the left. Regarding Miami, the city became a top destination for Latin American people with a lot of money that want to earn some passive income in real estate and other areas and those people skew to the right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

This is hogwash. Where and for what purposes are vaccine passports, in the unlikely event that any actually exist, required? Provide specifics or withdraw this ludicrous claim.

[PSOL]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

This is hogwash. Where and for what purposes are vaccine passports, in the unlikely event that any actually exist, required? Provide specifics or withdraw this ludicrous claim.

It’s right outside your door, you just need to remove the wool from your ears.

[seb_pard]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

Trying to limit this as much as possible to avoid spamming up the thread: you said "dwarfs". 100k does not really "dwarf" 76k and, in any case, it is strange to me to separate New Jersey from New York.

I was more commenting on the strange assumption propagated in this thread that Peruvians = Miami and that Peruvians in the US are all rich expats with extreme right-wing views. This isn't remotely true. Miami is just one destination among many for Peruvians, Peruvians are very working class and they aren't that engaged with Peruvian politics (see: sub-30% turnout in NJ). Overall, this assumption being propagated has mostly served to misinform lots of people about the character of Peruvian-Americans.

That's the thing, there are serious turnout differences among peruvians (well, that's what I think), but at the end, you know that the typical Peruvian in the US is not the one with a lot of money in Miami but the one living in Corona/Jackson Heights, but the first one is overrepresented in the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402075746663731205?s=20
In case you were wondering if US cultural influence is fading worldwide, I present you an example of our latest creation: the denial of electoral legitimacy. Can fit in any political arena, be it Israeli or South American.

Not surprising that she’s claiming fraud so late, right in the moment that it becomes clear that she will lose lol

When she was out on the front, there was no fraud. These people are a joke.

Keiko? More like JOKEiko!
Seriously speaking, I can't believe my opinion of her has managed to sink lower than where it already was, in absence of her actually doing something in elected office...

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402075746663731205?s=20

In case you were wondering if US cultural influence is fading worldwide, I present you an example of our latest creation: the denial of electoral legitimacy. Can fit in any political arena, be it Israeli or South American.

Both main candidates were planning fraud allegations against each other, especially in an election as close as this one  so, lolno it's definitely not an American innovation, just ask AMLO

[GeorgiaModerate]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

This is hogwash. Where and for what purposes are vaccine passports, in the unlikely event that any actually exist, required? Provide specifics or withdraw this ludicrous claim.

It’s right outside your door, you just need to remove the wool from your ears.

There ain’t any in Georgia. I’ll drop this discussion so as not to sidetrack the thread further. But you’ve just demonstrated that you were either lying, trolling, or have a serious misperception of the world.

[EastwoodS]

An underrated reason why the Western Peruvian diaspora vote for KF is due to the past few years scaring them against the left. The likes of people like Jeremy Corbyn keeps the wounds of communism on their back, refreshened with the draconian lockdowns imposed by people like Joe Biden. Remember the huge swings Trump made with Latino voters, it’s clear that the international left gets them agitated to prevent their country from falling further to the lefts clutches.

Please list the draconian lockdowns imposed by Joe Biden.

You can’t even go too far from your home without a vaccine passport anymore. The fact that they’re implementing similar systems for procuring work and food is terrifying for a demographic against Covid restrictions by antisocial leftists.

Latin Americans value freedom of travel and getting up close to people. How else do you explain the #trendz

There aren’t domestic vaccine passports in the US

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, question: what chance is there that the winner of this election, regardless of whether it is Castillo or Fujimori, is impeached in the 12 month period after they take office?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, question: what chance is there that the winner of this election, regardless of whether it is Castillo or Fujimori, is impeached in the 12 month period after they take office?

High.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, question: what chance is there that the winner of this election, regardless of whether it is Castillo or Fujimori, is impeached in the 12 month period after they take office?

High.

I suppose Castillo is better off in the sense that he is only facing impeachment, not impeachment+jail time...

[Lumine]

Well, all it really takes is a corruption scandal or either of them to do something stupid for Congress to assert a moral incapacity to govern. Since its Castillo and Fujimori we're talking about we can assume Congress will have no shortage of excuses IF there's a majority to get rid of them.

My guess is, much like PPK and Vizcarra, that either could survive a first impeachment attempt if they're reasonably popular, and would likely be outed at the second.

Barring some undemocratic move against the Peruvian Congress, I wouldn't bet on either making it through the entire term.