Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Looks like this is exactly what happened:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1381462918550577153

[Red Velvet]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

[Biden 2024]

Does Castillo get >40% in the runoff?

[MRCVzla]

Castillo rising was unexpectable until a week ago, seems he attracted rural votes and from other leftist/catch-all candidates (mostly Mendoza, Lescano or Forsyth). Will be a bloodbath if their rival in runoff will be Keiko, is the only runoff scenario in she can win. From a map who saw from the exit poll, Castillo leads in the poorer/rural areas (mostly in the South), De Soto has strong support in metro Lima.
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1381457997780545538

Oh, and from the earlier exit poll for the Congress, the follow seat projection according Ipsos:
Free Peru (PL) 28
Popular Action (AP) 23
Popular Force (FP) 16
Aliance for the Progress (APP) 14
Popular Renewal (RP) 11
Forward Country (AvP) 10
Together for Peru (JP) 8
We Can Peru (PP) 6
National Victory (VN) 5
We Are Peru (SP) 5
Purple Party (PM) 4

Guzmán/Sagasti party will probably lost party register, there is also a threshold for that (5 seats). FREPAP (currenly below the threshold) seems a one-hit-wonder until last minute surprise from the count.

[Red Velvet]

Does Castillo get >40% in the runoff?

Very possible, considering how anti-Fujimori sentiment is strong. He also benefits from being outsider.

Anyone else would likely destroy him but against Keiko it could be close. Just not sure how much. Depends on how much he signals to the center, I guess, since it will be a very polarized battle.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

First official results

11,42% de actas   contabilizadas. (23:49)

Pedro Castillo (Perú Libre) 15,81%
Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) 14,48%
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 13,13%
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) 12,19%
Yonhy Lescano (Acción Popular) 8,95%
Verónika Mendoza (Juntos por el Perú) 7,94%
George Forsyth (Victoria Nacional) 6,07%
César Acuña (APP) 5,90%
Daniel Urresti (Podemos Perú) 5,59%
Julio Guzmán (Partido Morado) 2,67%
Alberto Beingolea (PPC) 2,26%
Daniel Salaverry (Somos Perú) 1,56%
Ollanta Humala (Partido Nacionalista) 1,16% [lol]
José Vega (UPP) 0,63%
Ciro Gálvez (Runa) 0,53%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

I just don't understand what the appeal of Fujimori is. Even RLA is a wacky character with strongly held beliefs, Fujimori is just a crooked politician.

Hopefully RLA or De Soto still have a chance of taking 2nd.

EDIT: Supposedly the votes from Lima come last, so it isn't out of the question.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Castillo get >40% in the runoff?

I guess it is very likely. Over >50% is a harder question to answer.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So is the ipsos quick count any good or here's how Lescano/De Soto can still win?

[MRCVzla]

While official ONPE' quick count is slow under 20%, the Ipsos quick count is now at 90% and well...
Castillo 18.1%
Keiko 14.4%
López Aliaga 12.4%
De Soto 10.8%
Lescano 9.7%
Mendoza 7.9%
Urresti 5.8%
Forsyth 5.5%
Acuña 5.5%
Guzmán 2.2%

ONPE results page for anyone interested: https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/EG2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/T

[Red Velvet]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

I just don't understand what the appeal of Fujimori is. Even RLA is a wacky character with strongly held beliefs, Fujimori is just a crooked politician.

Hopefully RLA or De Soto still have a chance of taking 2nd.

EDIT: Supposedly the votes from Lima come last, so it isn't out of the question.

Old people who liked Fujimori dictatorship in the 90s, I guess. Populist right has the appeal we all know even when they’re super corrupt.

Besides, while Colombia may be the most economically right-wing country in South America, Peru is extremely conservative socially speaking, maybe the most conservative one in the continent. While still swinging kinda more towards neoliberalism in the economy.

If the far-right has success in so many places nowadays, including in South America, it just makes sense it would be strong in Peru too. Especially in a scenario where there is no clear option and the country feels abandoned.

Just look how even the left with power in Peru (Castillo) tends to have strong conservative rhetoric on social issues, against gay marriage, abortion and “gender ideology”. It feels like practically a consensus in order to be electorally viable in Peru. No wonder the more progressive Veronika, who I was rooting for, died on the beach.

And the Fujimori right has a history of sterilizing thousands of Indigenous women against their will when they were in power, as part of their family planning program to address the “Indian problem”. So, it’s quite a complicated situation to be fully at anyone’s side, although for me Castillo definitely is the lesser evil even if still very far from ideal IMO.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Here's to the official count holding up better than the quick count. Supposedly the last quick count was off slightly:

https://twitter.com/erisliberta/status/1381474930341122048

EDIT: You can keep up with the official count here, complete with a neat map.

The bad sign is that Lima's returns are slightly overrepresented (26% reporting vs 21% overall) but the good sign is that De Soto is doing a lot better in the provinces than I expected, at least of the results so far.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many votes left in Lima?

[Velasco]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

It's not the first time the forgotten Peru shows its face. Just look at the recent electoral history of Peru and remember how the now discredited Ollanta Humala was perceived as a threat, or look further into the past to recall how Keiko's father defeated Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990.

But yeah, a runoff between Castillo and Fujimori is the nightmarish scenario I was fearing last night. Remember that in cases like this, when they have to make a choice between extreme options like communism or fascism, neoliberals and fake progressives always opt for the fascists

[PSOL]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Yup it will be Pedro Castillo vs Keiko Fujimori. Far-left vs Far-right.

These results being so unexpected show how people in Lima have really no idea of what their country wants. The forgotten Peru showed their face today.

It's not the first time the forgotten Peru shows its face. Just look at the recent electoral history of Peru and remember how the now discredited Ollanta Humala was perceived as a threat, or look further into the past to recall how Keiko's father defeated Mario Vargas Llosa in 1990.

But yeah, a runoff between Castillo and Fujimori is the nightmarish scenario I was fearing last night. Remember that in cases like this, when they have to make a choice between extreme options like communism or fascism, neoliberals and fake progressives always opt for the fascists

Because when Chavismo is implemented everyone starves. I'm sympathetic to Castillo's voters but if he won and somehow imposed his vision then it would be those very same people left holding the bag. The rich Venezuelans left for Miami, the less rich left for Colombia or Argentina and the poor were left to starve. At least traditional corrupt right wing dictators leave a country behind when their reign of terror is finished. The best argument in his favour is that he wouldn't actually be able to achieve any of his goals which isn't exactly a great sign for him.

Still, I'm holding out hope De Soto or even RLA passes Fujimori into the second round. De Soto's results in southern Peru still seem to be a lot better than expected. In his home province of Arequipa he got 22% and almost beat out Castillo for first while in Cuzco he's got 9% to Fujimori's 4%. If the northwestern and northeastern Fujimorist strongholds don't swing it to her then southern Peru could keep Fujimori out. There are still plenty of votes left from Lima too.

[MRCVzla]

IPSOS quick count (100%)
Pedro Castillo 18.1%
Keiko Fujimori 14.5%
Rafael López Aliaga 12.2%
Hernando de Soto 10.7%
Yohny Lescano 9.8%
Verónika Mendoza 7.9%
Daniel Urresti 5.9%
George Forsyth 5.6%
César Acuña 5.5%
Julio Guzmán 2.1%
Alberto Beingolea 1.9%
Daniel Salaverry 1.7%
Ollanta Humala 1.5%
José Vega 0.8%
Ciro Gálvez 0.7%
Marco Arana 0.4%
Rafael Santos 0.4%
Andrés Alcántara 0.3%

[Skye]

Cursed result.

[America Needs R'hllor]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

[PSOL]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

[W]

Hope you all at least made some PredictIt money off that chaos. Unexpected result but reading into Peruvian politics now I think it was primed for it. No matter your beliefs I don't think anyone here can with any seriousness say that Fujimori is the "lesser evil" in this though.

I've got a gut feeling this race will ride on some unforeseen scandal in the next few months. Not gonna make any predictions but I'd say it's Fujimori's game to lose unfortunately.

[America Needs R'hllor]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. The two choices are both pretty terrifying, but I believe if I lived there I'd choose the one less likely to take away my rights. Still sucks that the two paths before a country are, on paper at least, the Venezuelan path vs the fascist dictatorship path. Also sucks that the hope to avoid either rides on an inability to govern.

[PSOL]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. The two choices are both pretty terrifying, but I believe if I lived there I'd choose the one less likely to take away my rights. Still sucks that the two paths before a country are, on paper at least, the Venezuelan path vs the fascist dictatorship path. Also sucks that the hope to avoid either rides on an inability to govern.

Given the fact that the Armed forces, Peruvian police, and now-deactivated death squads most likely universally hate PL and given the anti-corruption messaging and support groups they draw support from, I highly doubt Peru will become anything like Venezuela no matter what a hypothetical future with Castillo as president holds.

I of course need to mention that once in office, like most claimed revolutionary or “extremist” movements, they’ll most likely moderate and learn to be pragmatic as such groups like the PCCh and MAS have done in Chile and Bolivia respectively. I get where your coming at, but labeling all nominally leftwing anti-elite movements as Chavista is generally wrong.

On this election, can I just say how embarrassing and weak the campaign of Veronika Mendoza really was this election. She literally went through two electoral lists (BF and JPP/NP) and drove her moderate Humanist-oriented electoral partners to the more radical candidate. Even taking into the fact that Peru is indeed a more socially conservative country and that Castillo and PL have closer indigenous ties, how she didn’t crack 10% even after going through a basically several-year long campaign and all the name recognition given to her shows her deficiencies.

Honestly, given the state of the Peruvian Left after this, it’s going to be interesting where things develop from here and if an all-encompassing alliance is even possible.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

While Castillo outside of LGBTQ and social issues in general is quite bad, considering his likely opponent  and given the fact that his hold on power is on much more shakier ground, I would back him. Fujimori has better relative ability at seizing the state than he does and would be much, much worse overall for the country. In sustaining his possible presidency, Castillo would have to work with his much more socially moderate partners in the Humanists and even with Mendoza’s party in parliament. Fujimori meanwhile is at the behest of the Catholic and Evangelical churches, Oligarchs and multinationals, all propped up by the military and the possibility of reviving death squads if things further deteriorate.

The only thing that would make this even more farcical is if yet another election from a possible popular uprising occurs within the next year.

I'd probably prefer Castillo too, but these are just two really terrible choices and it's a really sad state of affairs for the people of Peru.

Fundamentally one has to remember that only one of these candidates defends the mass murderers of Peruvian history; only one of these candidates represents an elite hellbent in keeping the caste and class relations static. Again, one has to remember that for one of them, their social conservatism is at least tied if they want a functioning relationship with their Humanist-oriented coalition partners.

Peru, like most of the world, isn’t in a neat bubble with politics entirely recognizable or palatable for most of the people in the advanced metropoles of the world—myself included. It’s fundamentally about choosing the person one would hold their nose for and (hopefully) have the highest chance of not abolish democracy.

Yeah, I don't disagree here. The two choices are both pretty terrifying, but I believe if I lived there I'd choose the one less likely to take away my rights. Still sucks that the two paths before a country are, on paper at least, the Venezuelan path vs the fascist dictatorship path. Also sucks that the hope to avoid either rides on an inability to govern.

Given the fact that the Armed forces, Peruvian police, and now-deactivated death squads most likely universally hate PL and given the anti-corruption messaging and support groups they draw support from, I highly doubt Peru will become anything like Venezuela no matter what a hypothetical future with Castillo as president holds.

I of course need to mention that once in office, like most claimed revolutionary or “extremist” movements, they’ll most likely moderate and learn to be pragmatic as such groups like the PCCh and MAS have done in Chile and Bolivia respectively. I get where your coming at, but labeling all nominally leftwing anti-elite movements as Chavista is generally wrong.

On this election, can I just say how embarrassing and weak the campaign of Veronika Mendoza really was this election. She literally went through two electoral lists (BF and JPP/NP) and drove her moderate Humanist-oriented electoral partners to the more radical candidate. Even taking into the fact that Peru is indeed a more socially conservative country and that Castillo and PL have closer indigenous ties, how she didn’t crack 10% even after going through a basically several-year long campaign and all the name recognition given to her shows her deficiencies.

Honestly, given the state of the Peruvian Left after this, it’s going to be interesting where things develop from here and if an all-encompassing alliance is even possible.

To be fair, Mendoza was the target of many more attacks than Castillo throughout the campaign, due to the mere fact that Castillo went largely unnoticed up until the end - but yes, she and JP etc really blew this one.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Even with a fairly high 57% of the votes counted, the race for the second place is still extremely tight

Pedro Castillo (Perú Libre) 16.375% (1,376,193 votes)
Hernando de Soto (Avanza País) 13.422% (1,128,004)
Keiko Fujimori (Fuerza Popular) 12.945% (1,087,882)
Rafael López Aliaga (Renovación Popular) 12.823% (1,077,677)
Every one else is under 9%

Blank votes 10.655% ( 1,102,113)
Null votes 4.858% (502,444)

The blank and null vote results for Parliament and the Andean Parliament (which are at 20%  and 12% of the votes counted) are extremely high, which isn't all that surprising after the events of the last couple of years, at a staggering 37% combined