Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[warandwar]

My guess is Castillo-Fujimori or Castillo-De Soto. De Soto is, in his field, quite famous and quite evil.

Edit: be a little careful with "potential Maoist." In Peru, the right throws that at anyone on the Left. There was a photoshopped image of Mendoza posing in front of Guzman's house this campaign, for example. But this is quite clearly a symptom of panic about rural/indian voters who (justifiably) are fed up with Peru's hilariously awful political class. Mendoza is more likeable as a candidate (on lgbt issues, fx), but seems like chickens coming home to roost here.

Yes, exactly.  I simply renounce to explain these things to fake progressives who pay attention to reactionary smear campaigns and actually work in the service of reactionary causes. Mendoza is the only candidate who represents a certain "contemporary left". She's neither Maoist nor Chavista

If you must know, I was referring to Castillo and his potential ties to the Shining Path (and thus, potential Maoist) and not to Mendoza. Mendoza is probably my first or second choice in this slate, but I'll proudly wear the "fake progressive" title from people whose leftist benevolence extends to everyone but Jews, and thus work for some very reactionary causes.

Yes, i know exactly what you are referring to. Castillo is a rural school teacher and union militant. If you know the history of the Shining Path, you'll remember that they began out of a teacher's college and had a base in rural teachers. Therefore it is not surprising that Castillo would have encountered people in MOVADEF - a legalistic group that has renounced armed struggle and is denouced as capitulators by the SL remnants. They exist solely to gain freedom for the many prisoners remaining, some of whom joined SL at very young ages and have been imprisoned for decades since. To suggest, as the right wing media does, that this makes *Castillo* a Maoist terrorist is entirely incorrect, and is a smear based on Lima residents fear of a hidden army among the poor Indians upland. No such army exists, but plenty of anger does, which has found a voice in Castillo. If you want to mention his conservative social opinions (no more conservative than candidates outside of Mendoza and Guzman) go ahead. But he is in no way a Senderist Maoist terrorist.

[Mike88]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

[warandwar]

Called it . Very impressive for Castillo. Will be a tight race for the 2nd position. And I imagine whoever wins can expect a term of, what, 6? months before impeachment. Hard to command legitimacy when 85-90% of the country didn't vote for you.

[Mike88]

Called it . Very impressive for Castillo. Will be a tight race for the 2nd position. And I imagine whoever wins can expect a term of, what, 6? months before impeachment. Hard to command legitimacy when 85-90% of the country didn't vote for you.

There's still the 2nd round in June.

[warandwar]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Much more likely that Keiko or Lescano gets it, with the rural vote being underrepesented here.

[kaoras]

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Or Fujimori, or Lescano, or Lopez Aliaga. And here is how Veronika Mendoza can still win.

But yeah, is so freaking obvious that Castillo won't win a second turn.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

[kaoras]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

Fujimori, she has fallen a lot since 2016 but Castillo is THE candidate she could beat. I don't expect that to be particularly close either.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

Congratulations on becoming Peru’s next president*, Hernando De Soto.

Much more likely that Keiko or Lescano gets it, with the rural vote being underrepesented here.

Oh, certainly, just making a li’l joke at the expense of the exit polls (hence the asterisk).

[Red Velvet]

Whoever goes against Pedro Castillo in the runoff wins. Peru is one of the most conservative countries in the region alongside Colombia, I really doubt they will elect a leftist.

Imagining if it’s Fujimori again lol. RIP Peru.

[Lumine]

It's pretty telling that even though there's several candidates with a chance to face Castillo on the 2nd round, most of them would mean pretty appaling match-ups on both ends. Wouldn't be surprised if the winner ends up being impeached within months.

[Octowakandi]

I have a feeling the exit poll could overestimate De Soto and underestimate Fujimori and/or LA.

Taking bets now, if it comes down to Castillo vs Fujimori, who wins?

It's pretty likely due to the exit polls being famously bad at sampling rural areas which Fujimori has a lot of strength in. But then again, the abroad vote will almost certainly go for De Soto.

[Velasco]

This Peruvian election is promising to lead the country into a complete dystopia. I actually met some Peruvians recently and feel very sorry for them

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's gonna be Fujimori vs. Castillo, isn't it?

[jaichind]

I like both de Soto and Fujimori although in different ways.  Not sure who to root for.  I guess I am for the one more likely to beat Castillo in the second round.

[Mike88]

Official results will only be released after 11:30 pm, Peru time, is that right?

[jaichind]

Any exit polls on Congressional elections?  I assume based on Prez exit polls Free Peru and Popular Force most likely outperformed pre-election polls while Popular Action most likely underperformed pre-election polls.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo’s best chance is definitely against Fujimori.

I wouldn’t put my bets on him, but he could benefit from having an outsider status and less power in congress, making people on the fence think he will be powerless if elected, unlike Fujimori who can be more perceived as a well-known figure from the corrupt political establishment AND also her father’s dictatorship. I think he can capture an idea of hope and change better considering how abandoned Peru currently is.

That said, it’s hard to see Peruvians electing a Marxist-Leninist who supports Venezuelan government. Personally, I don’t care about such scaremongering tactics and in most places it would likely be an easy Castillo vote, but it’s Peru we’re talking about. Just like Colombia with the FARCs, many many in Peru have reservations about the left because of Sendero Luminoso history. You just know that kind of stuff has a bigger weight in Peru.

I imagine both Fujimori and Castillo would have the strongest “antivote” so it’s hard to have an idea. It’s probably the scenario where both candidates would have their strongest chances, against each other lol.

[Octowakandi]

Any exit polls on Congressional elections?  I assume based on Prez exit polls Free Peru and Popular Force most likely outperformed pre-election polls while Popular Action most likely underperformed pre-election polls.

Yeah there was a snapshot exit as seen on TV

10.7 Action Popular (Lescano)
10.7 Peru Libre (Castillo)
9.5 Fuerza Popular (Fujimori)
8.8 Renovation Popular (Aliaga)
8.4 Avanza Pais (De Soto)

[Lumine]

Apparently the Congressional election exit polls go like this (I've associated the party with the presidential candidate for clarity, because the party names seem meaningless)
 
Congressional Election (compared to 2020)
Popular Action (Lescano): 10,7% (+0,5)
Free Peru (Castillo): 10,7% (+7,3)
Popular Force (Fujimori): 9,5% (+2,2)
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 8,8% (NEW)
Go on Country (De Soto): 8,4% (+5,9)
Alliance for Progress (Acuña): 7,9% (=)
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 7,7% (+2,9)
We Are Peru (Salaverry): 6,4% (+0,4)
National Victory (Forsyth): 5,7% (NEW)
Podemos Perú (Urresti): 5,6% (-2,8)
Partido Morado (Gúzman): 5,4% (-2,0)
FREPAP (None): 4,3% (-4,1)

And the others don't surpass 2%.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Official results will only be released after 11:30 pm, Peru time, is that right?

Yes

[PSOL]

FREPAP doing so poorly is confusing and shows that there probably is an undercount in rural areas. I guess we will wait and see.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Apparently the Congressional election exit polls go like this (I've associated the party with the presidential candidate for clarity, because the party names seem meaningless)
 
Congressional Election (compared to 2020)
Popular Action (Lescano): 10,7% (+0,5)
Free Peru (Castillo): 10,7% (+7,3)
Popular Force (Fujimori): 9,5% (+2,2)
Popular Renewal (López Aliaga): 8,8% (NEW)
Go on Country (De Soto): 8,4% (+5,9)
Alliance for Progress (Acuña): 7,9% (=)
Together for Peru (Mendoza): 7,7% (+2,9)
We Are Peru (Salaverry): 6,4% (+0,4)
National Victory (Forsyth): 5,7% (NEW)
Podemos Perú (Urresti): 5,6% (-2,8)
Partido Morado (Gúzman): 5,4% (-2,0)
FREPAP (None): 4,3% (-4,1)

And the others don't surpass 2%.

Not sure how that shakes out in terms of seats but by my count the non-centrist right have just over 40% of the vote, the centre right, centre left and less ideological parties constitute 27.1% and the combined cultural and economic left have 23.8%, though realistically Gúzman and Castillo are on the opposite sides of almost everything so you could easily put the former in the "centrist" basket.

Seems like if Castillo somehow won the second round he'd be powerless to do anything.

Actually, that's not quite right; he might be able to muster the support to ban teaching gender ideology in schools or to suppress gay marriage or something like that.

[Lumine]

Not sure how that shakes out in terms of seats but by my count the non-centrist right have just over 40% of the vote, the centre right, centre left and less ideological parties constitute 27.1% and the combined cultural and economic left have 23.8%, though realistically Gilman and Castillo are on the opposite sides of almost everything so you could easily put the former in the "centrist" basket.

Seems like if Castillo somehow won the second round he'd be powerless to do anything.

Actually, that's not quite right; he might be able to muster the support to ban teaching gender ideology in schools or to suppress gay marriage or something like that.

Seems like a fair assessment. I was watching Peruvian news coverage and someone pointed out that regardless of the second round, Peru was undergoing a "conservative moment", which seems fairly accurate when you account for those congressional balances (such low numbers for the left are virtually unthinkable anywhere else in the continent).

I can't imagine how painful it would be to even try to get anything done with such a consistently unworkable congress (first due to the Fujimorista supermajority, then due to sheer electoral dispersion).