Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865
https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

If there’s one thing that can be learned from the Peruvian experience, is that it is an ungovernable country.

What Castillo wants is irrelevant to the facts on the ground that he needs to rely on allies in the legislature and on the streets in order to govern. The Humanist party, Broad Front, and Veronika Mendoza’s list among others won’t just up and capitulate all power to the Free Peru party. The purple and liberal lists would abandon him.

There’s also the fact that his opponent is most likely going to use the state to crack down on opposition and Peruvian democracy with much less institutional opposition from the security force, so the compromise here is clear.
While this is a nothingburger and won’t move things, it still doesn’t change the fact that Keiko is definitely going to win one way or another. The consolidation of the anti-indigenous, anti-socialist sections to Peruvian society are all going to go for Keiko anyway and it’s clear from polling and #trendz across Spanish-speaking America wide that there isn’t enough support to make the Left win aside from Bolivia. Pedro Castillo is going to poll in the mid 40s and his movement will lose considerable support in the probable next election in a few months, that is, if Peru doesn’t become a dictatorship. What is certain is that most of the Peruvian Left—JPP, PL, and possibly both FA and DD—will attempt to work together to prevent any vote splitting.

I would have preferred this year to have both Peru and Chile be led by the Left, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that there needs to be more work to be done in creating the necessary infrastructure to take power for the next set of elections.

I'm sorry but the only thing that I heard in my head as I read this post was the quote by German Chanellor Von Papen when he decided to ally with him "We will squeez him in goverrment until until the pips squeak".

[PSOL]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

[Oryxslayer]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

Reminder that a majority of Peruvians no longer believe in Electoral Democracy.

Put simply, Peru was truly F'ed when these two made it to the runoff, but the countries politics have never been decent and the past years crises only reveals just how rotten the political culture truly is.

[Oryxslayer]

Two more recent polls:

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21: 45% Castillo, 40% Fujimori.

IEP/La Republica: 44.8% Castillo, 34.4% Fujimori.

[PSOL]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

The past few years should have not only discredited the technocrats and Western-approved moderates, but show the fractures in Peruvian society. There needs to be leadership that can earn the respect of the people.

Dude, if Pedro Castillo does any of that, he’ll be impeached in no time after a protest ending the government. The last few months, from PL and Castillo flip-flopping and gaining the support of FA and the Humanists, shows just how fragile and pragmatic PL actually is. Personally, I am concerned about Peru and the humanitarian situation there regardless of who wins—I’m an internationalist LGBTQ supporter after all—but by all accounts Pedro Castillo and PL are less likely to turn the country into the hellscape that would be another Fujimori turning the country into their own fiefdom to multinational lords. The most likely things to actually pass under PL meanwhile is more money to education, infrastructure, and some sort of amnesty plan for child soldiers of Shining Path.

[kaoras]

Unlike Hitler or Keiko Fujimori, there’s no support among the armed forces for Free Peru. There’s also the fact that, oh I dunno, Free Peru’s prospective allies and even Free Peru itself is more democratic and pragmatic than the alternative who will, if not removed in several months and successful holds power, will have more ability to turn the country into a dictatorship.

Yes, Castillo has very little support within the military and is more likely to be coup'ed than arrange a coup. Yes, Fujimori is very likely to attempt something authoritarian if/when the Congress attempts to continue the cycle of impeachment comes for her. This however does not excuse the fact that Castillo would also try something authoritarian via different tactics. Populist uprisings, civil unrest, and the intimidation of legislators via mass organization of supporters to descend on the capital are just some of the tools historically available to a radical leader when s/he lacks support within established institutions. Ignoring the many other tools available to wannabe authoritarians to just suppose the military is fallacious. If Castillo says he will not surrender power then he fully intends to not surrender power.

The past few years should have not only discredited the technocrats and Western-approved moderates, but show the fractures in Peruvian society. There needs to be leadership that can earn the respect of the people.

Dude, if Pedro Castillo does any of that, he’ll be impeached in no time after a protest ending the government. The last few months, from PL and Castillo flip-flopping and gaining the support of FA and the Humanists, shows just how fragile and pragmatic PL actually is. Personally, I am concerned about Peru and the humanitarian situation there regardless of who wins—I’m an internationalist LGBTQ supporter after all—but by all accounts Pedro Castillo and PL are less likely to turn the country into the hellscape that would be another Fujimori turning the country into their own fiefdom to multinational lords. The most likely things to actually pass under PL meanwhile is more money to education, infrastructure, and some sort of amnesty plan for child soldiers of Shining Path.

I don't know where people got the idea that Castillo is some ultra social conservative (Just kidding, I know exactly where it comes from, never change technocratic liberal media). The original plataform of Perú Libre said absolutely nothing regarding LGBT issues or marriage or anything and was in favour of the status quo regarding abortion, which is, well, exactly the same position as almost everyone else who ran for president

[Red Velvet]

Lol I think someone in the media probably just asked if he supported Gender Ideology and he answered “I am against it”. Which is no different than what all left leaders in Latin America who have a low income base of voters but with socially conservative background would say, especially like, 10 years ago.

Even Lula here never was into talking much about that stuff even if he was LGBT friendly, because these cultural war talking points are designed to be a trap to the left. If you go too into the “progressive” route you scare your working class base and media will paint you as “too woke and extreme left” and if you go the “conservative” one you scare the more intelectual and academic base and media will paint you as “too extremist to the right on social issues”.

Best answer politicians can have is deflect the question and give a non-answer. But trend for the future is for most of these topics start being non-controversial since they will become more of a consensus in society.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

[PSOL]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Unsurprising that ultras would sabotage the only chance the Peruvian Left had in ages. Shining Path knows that if a successful leftist president comes to power, they won’t be able to attract new members anymore.

[Red Velvet]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Extremists like to polarize with opposite side extremists in order to present themselves as the only option. They probably are rooting for Fujimori in secret so that they have an argument and “someone to fight”, in order to justify their existence to their audience.

Sendero Luminoso is seriously one of the worst groups in the region, no wonder some Peruvians still are traumatized by it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Is it confirmed that it was SL? I’ve heard that it’s not and there are other possibilities as well (the Quispe Palominos, etc).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A group of Shining Path terrorists gunned down over a dozen people including children and left a warning against voting for Fujimori.

Is it confirmed that it was SL? I’ve heard that it’s not and there are other possibilities as well (the Quispe Palominos, etc).

Officially SL declared a truce years ago after Guzman was captured, but a major portion of the membership broke off and continued operating to this day. This was apparently committed by a splinter group called the Militarized Communist Party of Peru.

[warandwar]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

[warandwar]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. As someone said earlier, these are the Quispe brothers. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

MCPP broke with political leadership a decade or two ago and now they just fight the anti-drug police. That statement is some crazy sh**t, very very anti gay, anti abortion, etc.

Yes, the pamphlets that are showing up on the news (insofar as they are real) talk a lot about “lesbian degenerates” and “homosexual degenerates”.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff

Latest poll by Gestion has

Castillo   42.6
Fujimori  41.7

The narrowing of the gap seems to be influenced by the Shining Path terrorist attack.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff

Latest poll by Gestion has

Castillo   42.6
Fujimori  41.7

The narrowing of the gap seems to be influenced by the Shining Path terrorist attack.

Likely one of the last polls we’ll get before the prohibition in the final week (although some constitutional law professors are suing to enjoin that provision of the electoral law).

[Oryxslayer]

The Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 Poll, rather than voting simulation:

Castillo - 41.6% (-3.3%), Fujimori - 41.5% (+1.4%), Blank - 10.9% (+1.7%), Undecided - 6.0% (+0.2%)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-28/castillo-s-lead-narrows-in-peruvian-vote-simulation-for-runoff

Latest poll by Gestion has

Castillo   42.6
Fujimori  41.7

The narrowing of the gap seems to be influenced by the Shining Path terrorist attack.

Isn't it obvious to anybody with their wits about them that SP et al would prefer a Fujimori win?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

IEP poll has Castillo at 40 (down from 44) and Fujimori at 38 (up from 34). I believe this is the last major poll that’ll be released before election day next Sunday.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m only vaguely paying attention to the debate, but Fujimori started an anecdote with “when I got out of prison for the third time...”

[buritobr]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

Of course. But its more likely that a extremist splinter group from and already radical insurgent group prefers Keiko win in some perverted sense of accelerationism and self-interest.

[Red Velvet]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

I do think it was a far-left group with the obvious intention of stimulating Keiko’s election, because the only opportunity they have of being relevant is fighting against a Fujimori government. Fascists in power is always the strongest argument in favor of communism.

I mean, they killed a small group of people (how many, only 6?) to “send people the message of not voting Fujimori”. If you’re part of a terrorist group like Sendero Luminoso or any other, you must know that never intimidates people at all and it will actually embolden them to do the complete opposite of what you’re “ordering” them.

Kinda like Bush was the man of the dreams of Terrorists in the Middle East post 9/11 because he validated their arguments about the US. It’s old strategy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, didn't bin Laden say he wanted a Bush defeat before the 2004 election?

(when, of course, the opposite was pretty obviously the case in reality)