Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Biden 2024]

Fujimori will win.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19

Very easy choice now.

[PSOL]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19

Very easy choice now.

Literally most of this was already on their platform. Seems like they realize that they’re polling s••te lately and need to stress their platform instead of the assumptions around them.

[jaichind]

https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-pedro-castillo-lidera-intencion-de-voto-pero-diferencia-con-keiko-fujimori-se-acorta-a-cinco-puntos-segun-datum-noticia-1335544

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 poll 

Castillo         41 (-2)
Fujimori        36 (+2)

[Red Velvet]

This is getting close, as expected, but it’s happening earlier than I thought.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://rpp.pe/politica/elecciones/elecciones-2021-pedro-castillo-lidera-intencion-de-voto-pero-diferencia-con-keiko-fujimori-se-acorta-a-cinco-puntos-segun-datum-noticia-1335544

Datum/Gestión/Perú 21 poll 

Castillo         41 (-2)
Fujimori        36 (+2)

FWIW, this is the first poll after the unofficial debate. 77% are aware of it in some form or another, and 44% say Keiko won while 32% say Castillo won. So I’m sure that’s helping the anti-left vote consolidate around her.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19

Very easy choice now.

I get the feeling this is just smoke and mirror to ensure victory

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New IEP poll is out

Castillo: 36 (-6)
Fujimori: 30 (+8)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala.  

Grading on a Latin American curve, sure. By modern international standards, not exactly. By my ideal standards, not even close.

Market systems have to start from the bottom up, whereas the usual neoliberal tack in Latin America has been to appeal to the ruling elite to impose a market system from the top. This might help with capitalizing companies and attracting international loans to capital cities but that's all irrelevant to some guy living on a mountain that's about to be evicted so the government can collect fat taxes from a new mine.

De Soto's idea of formalizing property for the poor was a great one even if he's a bit of a lizard person. It would also help reduce regime uncertainty; knowing that the government will seize land for you or divert huge sums your way for contracts is great for a corrupt international corporation but not so good for the small and medium sized companies that make the backbone of a healthy economy and won't get the same favoritism. A consistent and fair system means people can actually invest and expand in their own communities without worrying about it being stolen by the local authorities or criminals (but I repeat myself). The direct size of the state isn't as relevant when there are death squads, guerrillas and paramilitaries (the latter less so than in Colombia) that go out kidnapping people, stealing stuff and blowing up infrastructure.

Ending the War on Drugs would also be a great boon, albeit again less than in Colombia or Bolivia. Formalizing valuable former black market sectors of the economy like coca growing would be hugely beneficial to farmers and would undercut criminal wealth.

Great explanation, thank you.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19

Very easy choice now.

Yeah, as we all know, politicians never lie. The guy with ties to a Maoist guerilla group definitely won't do anything bad during his presidency. I'm sure of it.

[Socani]

The election right now is almost a pure-tossup, Castillo is being favored but I think Lima voters will make Fujimori win the election.

[America Needs R'hllor]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19
Very easy choice now.

Yeah, as we all know, politicians never lie. The guy with ties to a Maoist guerilla group definitely won't do anything bad during his presidency. I'm sure of it.

Ok mr. Haley/Ryan, what do you suggest a center leftist to do? Gamble that the daughter of the brutal dictator who said she'll pardon him won't do anything bad?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1390153820907339777?s=19
Very easy choice now.

Yeah, as we all know, politicians never lie. The guy with ties to a Maoist guerilla group definitely won't do anything bad during his presidency. I'm sure of it.

Ok mr. Haley/Ryan, what do you suggest a center leftist to do? Gamble that the daughter of the brutal dictator who said she'll pardon him won't do anything bad?

Yes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll is out

Castillo: 44 (+3)
Fujimori: 41 (+5)

Castillo still dominating in the center and south of the country, Fujimori now takes the lead in the north and east. In other news, Castillo is said to have three separate options for an official platform and circle of advisors: the original one from the first one (written by Vladimir Cerrón) and two new ones, one written by officials in Nuevo Perú in conjunction with Perú Libre and another written by Miguel del Castillo (son of former aprista Lima mayor Jorge del Castillo) and several members of the Partido Morado and Victoria Nacional. Castillo’s official platform is to be presented tomorrow in advance of the platform/advisors’ debate on the 23rd.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Wasn’t able to get this until just now (been very busy the past few days), but Castillo’s official platform for the second round (which he has still not officially presented) will be/has been written by his party in conjunction with Nuevo Perú. He’s also named several advisors, including the head of the congressional commission that investigated the Lava Jato scandal and one of the lawyers who put Alberto Fujimori on trial in 2008.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Ipsos poll:

Castillo: 37 (+1)
Fujimori: 30 (nc)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/peru-voter-simulation-shows-castillo-fujimori-now-neck-neck-2021-05-16/

"The poll, in which respondents fill out mock voter forms and place them in boxes to preserve their privacy, showed Castillo had 51.1% support, while Fujimori had 48.9%. The gap in the survey published in the newspaper El Comercio was within the 2.8-point margin of error."

Castillo 51, Fujimori 49

[Biden 2024]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

[Biden 2024]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

Sorry, was sloppy attempt at dry humor. I do have a bad feeling though!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

Sorry, was sloppy attempt at dry humor. I do have a bad feeling though!

Lol, dw. The secret is to always have a bad feeling and you’ll never be let down!

[Oryxslayer]

Fujimori was always going to win in this runoff.

>one mock election where she narrowly loses

>Fujimori was always going to win

I mean at the end of the day the universe of voters who could be convinced to her side was greater than those winnable by Castillo. It just took a bit of fear campaigning, stigmatization, and greater scrutiny on Castillo to remind those voters why she should be perceived as the lesser of two evils. To that end:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1395233801459179520?s=20

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1395234354402627590?s=20

Her first runoff lead after steady gains since round 1.

[VAR]

Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

[NYDem]

Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

It looks bad, but it must mean nothing. After all, the candidate signed a sheet of paper which said they would respect democracy.

[PSOL]

Well, well, well.

https://twitter.com/DanielDiMartino/status/1395219722715684865

https://elcomercio.pe/politica/guillermo-bermejo-si-tomamos-el-poder-no-lo-vamos-a-dejar-nndc-noticia/

If there’s one thing that can be learned from the Peruvian experience, is that it is an ungovernable country.

What Castillo wants is irrelevant to the facts on the ground that he needs to rely on allies in the legislature and on the streets in order to govern. The Humanist party, Broad Front, and Veronika Mendoza’s list among others won’t just up and capitulate all power to the Free Peru party. The purple and liberal lists would abandon him.

There’s also the fact that his opponent is most likely going to use the state to crack down on opposition and Peruvian democracy with much less institutional opposition from the security force, so the compromise here is clear.
While this is a nothingburger and won’t move things, it still doesn’t change the fact that Keiko is definitely going to win one way or another. The consolidation of the anti-indigenous, anti-socialist sections to Peruvian society are all going to go for Keiko anyway and it’s clear from polling and #trendz across Spanish-speaking America wide that there isn’t enough support to make the Left win aside from Bolivia. Pedro Castillo is going to poll in the mid 40s and his movement will lose considerable support in the probable next election in a few months, that is, if Peru doesn’t become a dictatorship. What is certain is that most of the Peruvian Left—JPP, PL, and possibly both FA and DD—will attempt to work together to prevent any vote splitting.

I would have preferred this year to have both Peru and Chile be led by the Left, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that there needs to be more work to be done in creating the necessary infrastructure to take power for the next set of elections.