Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues
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Author Topic: Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues  (Read 65950 times)
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1150 on: December 21, 2022, 01:21:48 PM »









I'm guessing the relatively high level of retrospective support for the autogolpe attempt is, uh, heavily informed by subsequent events.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #1151 on: December 21, 2022, 01:24:56 PM »

I can often pick up on vibes...

I was worried of mass political violence..

First I worried about political violence for Virginia Governor 2021..

Afterwards, I was worried about mass violence throughout the country about Roe V. Wade and the Supreme Court.

then I worried about violence between supporters of Wexton/Cao or Spanberger/Vega in Northern Virginia..

I worried about stacy abrams attempting a coup

I worried about Kari lake attempting a coup

I worried about Democrats pulling their own january 6th for the House of Representatives because of some parallels in 2020 and 2022.. incumbent party over performing fundamentals and ultimately loses due to late breaking races with very narrow margins.

turns out.. all the vibes I picked up.. came from Peru.. a country I've been to several times. lol
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #1152 on: December 21, 2022, 01:43:23 PM »


I'm guessing the relatively high level of retrospective support for the autogolpe attempt is, uh, heavily informed by subsequent events.

"guessing".

In every Peru thread here, most of the posts at least have 1 "probably" or "guessing" word in them. People making conclusions without being informed of what's going on and their prejudices being conflicted with actual events.
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Estrella
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« Reply #1153 on: December 21, 2022, 03:19:28 PM »


I'm guessing the relatively high level of retrospective support for the autogolpe attempt is, uh, heavily informed by subsequent events.

"guessing".

In every Peru thread here, most of the posts at least have 1 "probably" or "guessing" word in them. People making conclusions without being informed of what's going on and their prejudices being conflicted with actual events.

As opposed to what you are doing? You're also lashing out at a person who is more sympathetic to your position than most posters in here, as you would find out if you finished reading that sentence.
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #1154 on: December 21, 2022, 03:24:30 PM »


I'm guessing the relatively high level of retrospective support for the autogolpe attempt is, uh, heavily informed by subsequent events.

"guessing".

In every Peru thread here, most of the posts at least have 1 "probably" or "guessing" word in them. People making conclusions without being informed of what's going on and their prejudices being conflicted with actual events.

As opposed to what you are doing? You're also lashing out at a person who is more sympathetic to your position than most posters in here, as you would find out if you finished reading that sentence.

"heavily informed by subsequent events", what does that indicate. I don't get what you mean here.
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Good Habit
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« Reply #1155 on: December 21, 2022, 04:23:51 PM »


"heavily informed by subsequent events", what does that indicate. I don't get what you mean here.

I guess it should say that the poster thinks that many people who disliked Castillo, now, with the way Boularte and Congress (and the "security" forces) are handling the situation, began to consider Castillo the lesser evil (compared to congress), and that therefore, with hindsight, they consider his move to dissolve Congress justified...
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LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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« Reply #1156 on: December 21, 2022, 04:30:22 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2022, 04:41:49 PM by Laki »


"heavily informed by subsequent events", what does that indicate. I don't get what you mean here.

I guess it should say that the poster thinks that many people who disliked Castillo, now, with the way Boularte and Congress (and the "security" forces) are handling the situation, began to consider Castillo the lesser evil (compared to congress), and that therefore, with hindsight, they consider his move to dissolve Congress justified...

I probably didn't realize the tone of the post, because of not being a native speaker in english.

So my apologies.

Yes i know i've been somewhat "passive agressive" in this thread, but i also feel like i have to go on full defence mode in this thread, because I couldn't disagree more with the posts being made



If you see the 14 "like equivalents" for what I consider a stupid post, than yes, that would explain my passive agression here.



or here, an arguably much worse post.

And it isn't the first time it happened in international general discussions, like this thread for example: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=529838.0

(where people attacked me and PSOL before we even made a post in the thread, based on fake news being spread about Iran).

While

Quote
that therefore, with hindsight, they consider his move to dissolve Congress justified...

this is something that i'm trying to explain for over a week already.

And people continue to reply: "what about Castillo", "Castillo would have done the same", and "there is no lesser evil", okay an upgrade over "rooting for Boluarta after Castillo's coup". But still, there is a clear lesser evil here, and imo given what we know his move to dissolve Congress AND CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS was completely justified.

People have ridiculed Fernandez, AMLO and Petro for having the same take on the situation as I have, but i'm glad that these leaders do what is necessary and take the right decisions, and I would have done the same/supported them if i were in their situations.

So yes, i hope you understand why i sometimes have the feeling of "me against the world" or "me against all Atlas users". The way people treat me here (in these boards) have led to that.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1157 on: December 21, 2022, 05:51:59 PM »

imo given what we know his move to dissolve Congress AND CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS was completely justified.

People have ridiculed Fernandez, AMLO and Petro for having the same take on the situation as I have, but i'm glad that these leaders do what is necessary and take the right decisions, and I would have done the same/supported them if i were in their situations.

A president being replaced by his own vice president in response to unconstitutionally attempting to close Congress, take over the judiciary, and rule by decree isn’t a coup. What “we know” is that Congress was going to attempt to impeach him for the third time due to the obvious corruption that permeated his administration, an attempt which by all accounts would have failed just like the other two. Even if - and especially if - the impeachment were likely to succeed, his actions would still have been dictatorial and authoritarian. It doesn’t matter if he was going to call new elections - can you guess who else called for fresh elections and a new constitution after a self-coup?
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« Reply #1158 on: December 21, 2022, 05:53:00 PM »

imo given what we know his move to dissolve Congress AND CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS was completely justified.

People have ridiculed Fernandez, AMLO and Petro for having the same take on the situation as I have, but i'm glad that these leaders do what is necessary and take the right decisions, and I would have done the same/supported them if i were in their situations.

A president being replaced by his own vice president in response to unconstitutionally attempting to close Congress, take over the judiciary, and rule by decree isn’t a coup. What “we know” is that Congress was going to attempt to impeach him for the third time due to the obvious corruption that permeated his administration, an attempt which by all accounts would have failed just like the other two. Even if - and especially if - the impeachment were likely to succeed, his actions would still have been dictatorial and authoritarian. It doesn’t matter if he was going to call new elections - can you guess who else called for fresh elections and a new constitution after a self-coup?
I disagree.
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« Reply #1159 on: December 21, 2022, 06:42:09 PM »

imo given what we know his move to dissolve Congress AND CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS was completely justified.

People have ridiculed Fernandez, AMLO and Petro for having the same take on the situation as I have, but i'm glad that these leaders do what is necessary and take the right decisions, and I would have done the same/supported them if i were in their situations.

A president being replaced by his own vice president in response to unconstitutionally attempting to close Congress, take over the judiciary, and rule by decree isn’t a coup. What “we know” is that Congress was going to attempt to impeach him for the third time due to the obvious corruption that permeated his administration, an attempt which by all accounts would have failed just like the other two. Even if - and especially if - the impeachment were likely to succeed, his actions would still have been dictatorial and authoritarian. It doesn’t matter if he was going to call new elections - can you guess who else called for fresh elections and a new constitution after a self-coup?
I think the final impeachment attempt was likely to succeed - hence the events that followed.

Anyway, there is basically no justification for still standing behind Castillo.

Was / is Congress a den of snakes looking out only for themselves - yes
Were they always going to try and impeach Castillo, regardless of merit - yes
Does anyone in Peru like / support Congress - not really
Does any of that justify the suspension of democracy - obviously, obviously, obviously not

It is sad that so much of the Latin American left has been infected with (honestly, in many ways understandable) brain worms, and are now trying to defend the indefensible. Hopefully the likes of Gustavo Petro in Colombia, who has made a genuinely encouraging start on his domestic agenda, will be able to continue on their actual priorities, rather than getting sidetracked in defending this bizarre psychodrama
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1160 on: December 21, 2022, 06:43:42 PM »

imo given what we know his move to dissolve Congress AND CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS was completely justified.

People have ridiculed Fernandez, AMLO and Petro for having the same take on the situation as I have, but i'm glad that these leaders do what is necessary and take the right decisions, and I would have done the same/supported them if i were in their situations.

A president being replaced by his own vice president in response to unconstitutionally attempting to close Congress, take over the judiciary, and rule by decree isn’t a coup. What “we know” is that Congress was going to attempt to impeach him for the third time due to the obvious corruption that permeated his administration, an attempt which by all accounts would have failed just like the other two. Even if - and especially if - the impeachment were likely to succeed, his actions would still have been dictatorial and authoritarian. It doesn’t matter if he was going to call new elections - can you guess who else called for fresh elections and a new constitution after a self-coup?
I disagree.

Okay. I’m sorry that saying you would have supported Fujimori in 1992 appears to have struck a nerve, but that’s supposed to be why we study history. We do it to learn from the past: what happened the last time a president staged a coup to avoid an intransigent legislature? And how well did that go for society? What does that mean for similar situations nowadays?
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Edu
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« Reply #1161 on: December 21, 2022, 08:19:07 PM »

So yes, i hope you understand why i sometimes have the feeling of "me against the world" or "me against all Atlas users". The way people treat me here (in these boards) have led to that.

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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1162 on: December 21, 2022, 09:03:02 PM »

Some tweets from the new education minister:





I imagine the Otárola cabinet will receive the confidence of Congress, but it doesn’t deserve it any more than the previous one did.
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Lumine
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« Reply #1163 on: December 21, 2022, 09:17:39 PM »

Since this seems to be a rather persistent and a long term issue regardless of the President, I'll just ask: where the hell do they find these ministers? And, if mediocre people are liable to get appointed to the Peruvian Cabinet at any given moment, why don't they have the common sense to stop using social media to vent any thought that comes to mind?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1164 on: December 21, 2022, 10:33:17 PM »

Since this seems to be a rather persistent and a long term issue regardless of the President, I'll just ask: where the hell do they find these ministers? And, if mediocre people are liable to get appointed to the Peruvian Cabinet at any given moment, why don't they have the common sense to stop using social media to vent any thought that comes to mind?

1) They largely recycle jobs amongst themselves and their friends

2) why would any politician stop using social media, have you met politicians?

(To be fair, Castillo actually did have a few good ministers, whom he largely drove off due to his general incompetence - Francke, Cevallos, Mirtha Vasquez)
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1165 on: December 22, 2022, 07:53:34 PM »

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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1166 on: December 23, 2022, 02:27:13 AM »

So was Boluarte always some sort of Keiko Lite sleeper agent within Peru Libre or is she just a weathervane?
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
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« Reply #1167 on: December 23, 2022, 06:53:57 AM »



Tbf overpriced notebooks for school kids is a valued and establish Latin American tradition
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1168 on: December 23, 2022, 04:55:45 PM »
« Edited: December 23, 2022, 08:59:34 PM by H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY »

So was Boluarte always some sort of Keiko Lite sleeper agent within Peru Libre or is she just a weathervane?

I don’t think she has particularly strong political convictions, and if she does they’re certainly not Leftist with a capital L. She was essentially a mid-level DMV employee two years ago, and the only reason she’s succeeding Castillo is because Vladimir Cerrón was banned from his first running-mate slot due to corruption - I don’t have any insight as to why she was originally put on the ticket in the first place besides as a seat-filler. I think she’s drifting to the right/authoritarianism because it’s easier and she’s getting more support there than from the left.

In other (and better) news, the Congressional subcommittee on impeachments has unanimously voted to approve the expulsion of Freddy Díaz (APP) for rape and referred it to the full Congress.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1169 on: December 31, 2022, 10:33:03 AM »

Interview with Benji Espinoza, Castillo’s former lawyer: https://larepublica.pe/politica/actualidad/2022/12/30/benji-espinoza-el-caso-de-rebelion-es-el-mas-debil-que-tiene-la-fiscalia-contra-pedro-castillo/

He thinks the case against him for rebellion is weak (since the law requires the use of arms) and that he shouldn’t be in pretrial detention for allegedly being caught in flagrante delicto.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #1170 on: January 04, 2023, 05:25:19 AM »



So was Boluarte always some sort of Keiko Lite sleeper agent within Peru Libre or is she just a weathervane?

I called it as first, hope people at least would start to respect me here, instead of the bs i have had to process...
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #1171 on: January 09, 2023, 05:43:37 PM »

9 protesters killed by police in Puno today as demonstrations continue. Ayacucho airport shut down. Their demands remain unsatisfied and unsatisfiable.
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« Reply #1172 on: January 09, 2023, 07:43:03 PM »

So we already know Keiko will get 49.5% of the vote, so who will get the 50.5%?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1173 on: January 10, 2023, 10:00:23 AM »

So we already know Keiko will get 49.5% of the vote, so who will get the 50.5%?

If I had to guess one person to be the next president of Peru (and to win the 2024 election, which is certainly not the same thing although I don’t see Boluarte resigning any time soon), it’d be López Aliaga. He’d be leaving his job as mayor of Lima very early, but he’s still the only candidate from last time who’s maintained a significant presence. Keiko’s not even sure to run with how her legal troubles have only advanced since the last election, and Hernando de Soto has apparently left politics (though I’m sure his party will run one of their dumbass libertarian members of Congress). Antauro seems like the most likely candidate on the left. There will surely be a more traditional left-wing candidate, but all the left-wing parties sold their souls to Castillo so there won’t be much daylight between any of them. Lastly, there’ll likely be someone in the Vizcarrista-morado enlightened centrist space (Flor Pablo?), but sadly I think they’re doomed to similar results as last time. The country is so polarized that there’s not much room left for them.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #1174 on: January 10, 2023, 01:19:48 PM »

Rapist Congressman Freddy Díaz was not expelled today. 60 votes in favor, 2 against, 21 abstentions - not enough to remove him. Alberto Otárola was meant to propose a confidence vote today but Perú Libre legislators blocked him from the floor.
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