MO SEN GOP PRIMARY (Remington) : Greitens leads by a small margin

[Frenchrepublican]

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59015f4b37c581b2ce01e5b3/t/605f08766a4f590eed5a052e/1616840826784/MOSCOUT+032521.pptx

[President Johnson]

Erotic Eric may be back, folks.

[VAR]

He will lose by double digits.

[Frenchrepublican]

Erotic Eric may be back, folks.

Wait until Cocaine Mitch begins to wage a total war against him...

[Frenchrepublican]

Numbers for those who don't want to read the full pwoer point :

Two ways race :
Greitens : 40%
Schmitt : 39%

Three ways race with Smith :
Greitens : 36%
Schmitt : 29%
Smith : 16%

Three ways race with Long :
Greitens : 36%
Schmitt : 30%
Long : 14%

Three ways race with Wagner :
Greitens : 38%
Schmitt : 26%
Wagner : 18%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

inb4 three way primary produces the worst possible candidate allowing the Democrat to win.

[Stuart98]

I am very confident this will age well.

Greitens is the Kobach 2020 of this race.

[Xing]

I don’t think he’ll win the primary, but obviously if he does, he’ll get to be a Senator despite... well, everything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

inb4 three way primary produces the worst possible candidate allowing the Democrat to win.

Even on a good night, D's would win OH and NC before MO, which is red, I had hopes, but Covid cases are starting to rise limiting the Ds takeover chances

[Stuart98]

I don’t think he’ll win the primary, but obviously if he does, he’ll get to be a Senator despite... well, everything.

Yeah.

He'll be the frontrunner going into the primary, dems will see him as their best shot of taking the seat, he'll lose, whoever wins the primary will poll competitive with the democrat anyway, win by double digits, people will conclude that Greitens would have won the general if he had won the primary so it's a damn good thing he lost.

Kansas senate 2020 all over again.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think he’ll win the primary, but obviously if he does, he’ll get to be a Senator despite... well, everything.

Yeah.

He'll be the frontrunner going into the primary, dems will see him as their best shot of taking the seat, he'll lose, whoever wins the primary will poll competitive with the democrat anyway, win by double digits, people will conclude that Greitens would have won the general if he had won the primary so it's a damn good thing he lost.

Kansas senate 2020 all over again.

If "whoever wins the primary" does not happen to be Eric Greitens or Roy Blunt but is still polling competitive with the Democrat, that would likely suggest a very underwhelming cycle for Republicans even if they outperform their polling by close to double digits in MO. Then again, you’re right that people shouldn’t place much faith in polling in general, even when they factor in likely biases.

[Stuart98]

I don’t think he’ll win the primary, but obviously if he does, he’ll get to be a Senator despite... well, everything.

Yeah.

He'll be the frontrunner going into the primary, dems will see him as their best shot of taking the seat, he'll lose, whoever wins the primary will poll competitive with the democrat anyway, win by double digits, people will conclude that Greitens would have won the general if he had won the primary so it's a damn good thing he lost.

Kansas senate 2020 all over again.

If "whoever wins the primary" does not happen to be Eric Greitens or Roy Blunt but is still polling competitive with the Democrat, that would likely suggest a very underwhelming cycle for Republicans even if they outperform their polling by close to double digits in MO. Then again, you’re right that people shouldn’t place much faith in polling in general, even when they factor in likely biases.

Missouri polls were terrible last year and I have faith that they will continue to be terrible.

[Hope For A New Era]

Missouri polls were terrible last year and I have faith that they will continue to be terrible.

They might not be as bad in 2022. They were far more accurate in 2018 than in 2016 or 2020, and the state is now moving left (very, very slowly). If the polls match their polling to the 2020 electorate, they may well be polling an electorate to the right of the state. (This is why Georgia polls were accurate in 2020 - they underestimated how much the state had changed, so they polled an electorate to the right of the state, and with Trumpist turnout, almost every state "votes to the right of itself.")

The polls underestimated Hawley's win, but they did correctly have him winning for most of the race, especially the post-Kavanaugh portion of the race. They also got McCaskill's percentage (45.6%) exactly right. It seems to have just been the same "undecideds are closeted Republicans" phenomenon that we've seen all over the Midwest since 2016, so I imagine in 2022 that's the way to unskew polls.