2016 : Clinton/Sanders vs Trump/Rubio

[UWS]

Before Clinton selected Kaine and Trump selected Pence, a poll from Monmouth University said that Marco Rubio and Bernie Sanders were the most popular potential VP picks.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/284609-poll-sanders-rubio-most-popular-vp-picks?rl=1

What if Hillary Clinton put Sanders on the Democratic ticket and Donald Trump selected Rubio? Who would win in such a scenario?

[Chips]

No real changes except VA becomes more competitive and perhaps NH is a little safer.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Clinton would have won with Sanders regardless of who Trump chose as his VP. If only a pretty small number of his supporters who stayed home/voted third party/voted Trump instead voted for Hillary, which they likely would have if he was actually on the ticket, she would have won. Is it possible Sanders hurts her a little with some moderates/suburbanites? Maybe, but with Trump as the opposition I doubt that matters much. Might even boost her a bit with some WWC to more or less cancel out. Certainly doesn’t cost her VA or anything.

Also Pence was probably needed for Trump to really lock down all the white evangelicals; more might have stayed home or voted third party if it was Rubio, who at the same time probably does little to help with the Hispanic vote. He does lock down Florida though. (Especially against Bernie.) Indeed that’s probably one the single biggest effects in this scenario: Florida votes more like it did in 2020 than it really did in 2016.