Which State was most disappointing for Dems in 2020?

[sting in the rafters]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.

Agreed on WI but I accepted OH was gone the moment Sherrod Brown’s margin in 2018 was to the right of the national house vote in 2018. PA has the growth in Philly burbs+the tech bubble in Pittsburgh to mitigate Ds losses in Appalachia, OH simply doesn’t.

Sherrod Brown will lose in 2024.

Too far out to tell imo but either way he could very well be the last Dem to win a federal race for a while

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

While far from the most disappointing for Dems PA has to be up there. Obviously winning the state back in the presidential after the GOP finally got their white whale in 2016 was massive. However, was legit hope that Ds could take back the state house and even have an outside shot at taking PA-10 (was within 4 points in 2018+the growing Harrisburg suburbs gave Dems legit hope to take down Perry). Instead, Rs actually expanded their majority in the state legislature, unseated both Ahmad and Torsella (the latter being a real shocker), and came within shouting distance of flipping both PA-07 and PA-08. Maybe it was a false hope all along as the PA state GOP was closing the infrastructure gap with Dems, though on election night it certainly was disappointing.

What about Wisconsin? Biden may have won, but other than that, it was underwhelming:

-Biden was supposed to cruise to victory, instead he barely squeaked by.
-Trump won Kenosha and Columbia again.
-WI-03 didn’t flip back at the presidential level, and Trump’s margin actually grew from 2016.
-Ron Kind barely held on.
-Every House Republican won their race by 18 points or more.
-Democrats lost two seats in the State Senate, and barely held onto a third.

Or Ohio:

-Trump’s margin was virtually unchanged from 2016’s.
-He flipped Mahoning and Lorain, and expanded his margins in Trumbull and Ashtabula.
-Biden did worse in Cuyahoga than Clinton did.
-Trump won all 12 house seats he carried in 2016 again.
-Steve Chabot won by 7 points, and every other house Republican won by double digits.
-Tim Ryan’s house race only barely missed being the closest in the state.
-Democrats failed to flip a deep-blue State Seat seat by about 100 votes, and did not come close in any other R-held seat.
-Meanwhile, the one Democrat in a red State Senate seat lost his race.

TBF It's fairly impressive Biden Flipped Wisconsin, given Evers barely won and WI Ds overall didn't have a very good year in 2018, aside from Tammy Baldwin. I agree with you on OH, it was very disappointing for Dems in 2020. I thought Lorain would stay blue given the national trend of Working-Class suburbs swinging blue (Macomb County, Anoka County, Westmoreland County, Etc.)

[Tekken_Guy]

How about South Carolina?

-Trump won by double digits again.
-Graham barely ran behind Trump.
-No counties flipped to Biden, while two flipped to Trump.
-Trump won SC-01 again handily.
-Joe Cunningham lost re-election.
-Adair Ford Boroughs barely did better than Wilson's no-name challenger in 2018.
-Duncan, Timmons, Norman, and Rice all did better in 2020 than 2018.
-Jim Clyburn got held under 70% and lost counties for the first time since 2010.
-Democrats lost virtually all of the deep-red seats they still held in the state legislature, and didn't make any gains in left-trending suburban seats to make up for it.
-Vincent Sheheen and Mandy Powers Norrell went down.
-Black-belt Democrat Justin Bamberg barely held on.

[Motorcity]

In order

1. North Carolina: Had Biden won, I think it would have started a trend of voting blue. But if we can't win it when we win nationally by 4.5, than I don't see hope for a while. And we lost a senate seat, but Georgia made up for it

2. Maine: Same as above for the senate

3. Texas: At some point, the Mid West will be lost. We need Texas to win the presidency. I did not expect to carry Texas but I hoped for 48-49%. That would allow us momentum to win later.

4. Florida: Florida was not needed to win, but Trump won by 3 points. So now Democrats need to win nationally by 10 points, which isn't going to happen

5. Arizona: Biden had a solid and stable lead in AZ most of the election. Many assumed it was now a blue state, which could give us a cushin for future elections. Its still a toss up

6. WI/MI/PA: Biden barerly improved over Hillary. It was enough but it didn't build back the blue wall. 2020 showed these states are lost long term.

[Alben Barkley]

Florida has burned us so many times it’s impossible to still be disappointed by it. I wasn’t THAT disappointed by NC though, especially since we won GA. I might actually say Texas because I expected it to be closer, more like Cruz’s margin over Beto.

[Del Tachi]

Obviously Texas; the volume of articles published about Texas in the lead-up to election day (mostly all of which were bullish on D's chances) easily eclipsed that of any other state.  D's then manage to suffer losses in the RGV, fail to flip a single House seat, and the presidential race doesn't even end-up being that close. 

[DaleCooper]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

[Mr. Smith]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

Can't blame her considering the antics of Ashford.

[DaleCooper]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

Can't blame her considering the antics of Ashford.

Eastman was endorsed by Biden, Harris, Bob Kerrey, Obama, and about every other prominent Democrat, but I guess the Ashfords endorsing her opponent is what caused her to underperform Biden by several points.

I don't have anything against Kara Eastman. She seems like a nice person and I'm sure she would've won if she were running in a different competitive district in perhaps California, but part of winning is actually appealing to people in the district you're trying to win. She made the mistake that most progressives make, which is assuming that everyone already agreed with her on all the issues. Showing up in Nebraska, even its most liberal district, and broadcasting a bunch of Justice Dem talking points was always a losing strategy. Do I wish Ashford had endorsed Eastman? Yes, just like I wish all those prominent pillars of society in Maine had endorsed Gideon instead of Collins, but it's on the candidate running to actually earn those endorsements. Both parties need to wake up and realize why they're losing so much support from former voters and office-holders alike and stop blaming everyone else for their losses.

[TML]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

Can't blame her considering the antics of Ashford.

Eastman was endorsed by Biden, Harris, Bob Kerrey, Obama, and about every other prominent Democrat, but I guess the Ashfords endorsing her opponent is what caused her to underperform Biden by several points.

I don't have anything against Kara Eastman. She seems like a nice person and I'm sure she would've won if she were running in a different competitive district in perhaps California, but part of winning is actually appealing to people in the district you're trying to win. She made the mistake that most progressives make, which is assuming that everyone already agreed with her on all the issues. Showing up in Nebraska, even its most liberal district, and broadcasting a bunch of Justice Dem talking points was always a losing strategy. Do I wish Ashford had endorsed Eastman? Yes, just like I wish all those prominent pillars of society in Maine had endorsed Gideon instead of Collins, but it's on the candidate running to actually earn those endorsements. Both parties need to wake up and realize why they're losing so much support from former voters and office-holders alike and stop blaming everyone else for their losses.

So are you saying that Eastman should have followed Ammar Campa-Najjar’s path in terms of shifting positions on the issues when campaigning the second time around? If she actually did that, I would have despised her just like I despised Campa-Najjar in his second run (and he actually lost ground in his second run compared to his first run).

[DaleCooper]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

Can't blame her considering the antics of Ashford.

Eastman was endorsed by Biden, Harris, Bob Kerrey, Obama, and about every other prominent Democrat, but I guess the Ashfords endorsing her opponent is what caused her to underperform Biden by several points.

I don't have anything against Kara Eastman. She seems like a nice person and I'm sure she would've won if she were running in a different competitive district in perhaps California, but part of winning is actually appealing to people in the district you're trying to win. She made the mistake that most progressives make, which is assuming that everyone already agreed with her on all the issues. Showing up in Nebraska, even its most liberal district, and broadcasting a bunch of Justice Dem talking points was always a losing strategy. Do I wish Ashford had endorsed Eastman? Yes, just like I wish all those prominent pillars of society in Maine had endorsed Gideon instead of Collins, but it's on the candidate running to actually earn those endorsements. Both parties need to wake up and realize why they're losing so much support from former voters and office-holders alike and stop blaming everyone else for their losses.

So are you saying that Eastman should have followed Ammar Campa-Najjar’s path in terms of shifting positions on the issues when campaigning the second time around? If she actually did that, I would have despised her just like I despised Campa-Najjar in his second run (and he actually lost ground in his second run compared to his first run).

I'm saying that if she wanted to win she should've campaigned on issues that would appeal to Omaha and Sarpy County voters rather than do the Justice Dems thing and appeal to a national progressive audience. I know a handful of the Biden voters that declined to vote for Eastman, and it was based almost universally on the perception that the Democratic House of Representatives is getting way too out-there for their comfort. It isn't how I would've voted because I'd prefer a progressive to Don Bacon, and like I said I don't think Eastman is unreasonable on most policies, but part of being a successful politician is knowing your voters. This skill is what has allowed people like Susan Collins and Joe Manchin to survive as long as they have. I have no love for moderate heroes, but sometimes you have to embrace that image to win, and progressives have flown way too close to the sun and have alienated a lot of Democratic voters.

[Motorcity]

Almost every competitive state was a disappointment except for Georgia. Colorado and Minnesota went smoothly and New Hampshire was great for Biden but down-ballot Democrats suffered there too. Texas is definitely the biggest disappointment, but Democrats did embarrassingly in almost all red states, with the exception of some improvements in Nebraska even though Eastman threw away the 2nd district House seat.

The lesson from 2020 is that Democrats, especially in Congress, have lost touch with the voters of most of this country. Ironically, the Republicans should learn a similar lesson as this election should've been an easy clean-sweep for them, but their current advantages in the Senate and Electoral College make it less imperative for them to realize it.

Can't blame her considering the antics of Ashford.

Eastman was endorsed by Biden, Harris, Bob Kerrey, Obama, and about every other prominent Democrat, but I guess the Ashfords endorsing her opponent is what caused her to underperform Biden by several points.

I don't have anything against Kara Eastman. She seems like a nice person and I'm sure she would've won if she were running in a different competitive district in perhaps California, but part of winning is actually appealing to people in the district you're trying to win. She made the mistake that most progressives make, which is assuming that everyone already agreed with her on all the issues. Showing up in Nebraska, even its most liberal district, and broadcasting a bunch of Justice Dem talking points was always a losing strategy. Do I wish Ashford had endorsed Eastman? Yes, just like I wish all those prominent pillars of society in Maine had endorsed Gideon instead of Collins, but it's on the candidate running to actually earn those endorsements. Both parties need to wake up and realize why they're losing so much support from former voters and office-holders alike and stop blaming everyone else for their losses.

So are you saying that Eastman should have followed Ammar Campa-Najjar’s path in terms of shifting positions on the issues when campaigning the second time around? If she actually did that, I would have despised her just like I despised Campa-Najjar in his second run (and he actually lost ground in his second run compared to his first run).

I'm saying that if she wanted to win she should've campaigned on issues that would appeal to Omaha and Sarpy County voters rather than do the Justice Dems thing and appeal to a national progressive audience. I know a handful of the Biden voters that declined to vote for Eastman, and it was based almost universally on the perception that the Democratic House of Representatives is getting way too out-there for their comfort. It isn't how I would've voted because I'd prefer a progressive to Don Bacon, and like I said I don't think Eastman is unreasonable on most policies, but part of being a successful politician is knowing your voters. This skill is what has allowed people like Susan Collins and Joe Manchin to survive as long as they have. I have no love for moderate heroes, but sometimes you have to embrace that image to win, and progressives have flown way too close to the sun and have alienated a lot of Democratic voters.

I strongly agree with this post

Sure, I'm a progressive who wants progressive policies. But I'd rather have a senate majority because of Joe Manchin who votes with Democrats 70% of the time vs being in a minority while voting rights and the welfare net is destroyed.

[Alcibiades]

6. WI/MI/PA: Biden barerly improved over Hillary. It was enough but it didn't build back the blue wall. 2020 showed these states are lost long term.

I don’t see how anyone can say this with confidence. I expect them to remain competitive for a long time.

[Roll Roons]

6. WI/MI/PA: Biden barerly improved over Hillary. It was enough but it didn't build back the blue wall. 2020 showed these states are lost long term.

I don’t see how anyone can say this with confidence. I expect them to remain competitive for a long time.

100%. There are trends that favor both parties in all three states. Also if we assume someone other than Trump is the GOP nominee in 2024, we might see reduced turnout from rural/working-class whites, but at least some degree of reversion in the suburbs, if not to Romney levels. 

[MT Treasurer]

No state comes close to Montana and Texas in this regard.

[bagelman]

Even if you didn't expect Ohio to flip back to normal, it's hard not to be incredibly saddened by near perfect repeat of Trump 2016's state margin. Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton and he lost by about the same amount while losing Lorain and Mahoning in the midst of a disruptive pandemic. Disgusting.

[VAR]

West Virginia for #populists like Alben Barkley, Texas for #elitists like Blairite.

[Pericles]

Another point is that the Texas State House was actually the closest major redistricting influence opportunity that Democrats lost. The maps in most swing states are gerrymandered so Democrats didn't even come close to flipping them, the North Carolina State House's tipping point seat was like R+6%, and Biden +10% is impossible. Texas wasn't supposed to be a swing state though, so the maps were biased in favor of the Democrats. So despite Biden losing the state by 5.6%, and the state House popular vote being R+11.4%, the tipping point for the state legislature was R+3.8%. That is weirdly also closer than all but one of the House seats in the state ended up being (Texas seems to have had a weirdly large amount of split-ticket voting too). Now, the maps will be gerrymandered, so Democrats don't have a chance to get a trifecta in Texas until the 2030s, and several US House seats in the meantime will be given to Republicans.

[One Term Floridian]

Maine. No really hear me out. Susan Collins was seen as a sure-flip practically the entire cycle and she ended up winning by almost double digits. ME-02 looks to be safe GOP turf in the future & Jared Golden managed to hold on this time against a weak opponent.

Maine is a state the GOP can make some serious investments in the future.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Arkansas- Once home to the Clintons, Trump did better in all the counties excluding Pulaski and NWA, GOP Senator handily re elected without a Dem candidate since 2008, French Hill winning despite his district being competitive
Missouri- Once the nation's bellwether state in the 20th century until 2004 except 1956 and resumed in 2016, Trump handily won MO while Biden improved in the suburbs of St Louis and Kansas City (MO Side), Mike Parson handily winning his first full term as governor despite being competitive   

[One Term Floridian]

Arkansas- Once home to the Clintons, Trump did better in all the counties excluding Pulaski and NWA, GOP Senator handily re elected without a Dem candidate since 2008, French Hill winning despite his district being competitive
Missouri- Once the nation's bellwether state in the 20th century until 2004 except 1956 and resumed in 2016, Trump handily won MO while Biden improved in the suburbs of St Louis and Kansas City (MO Side), Mike Parson handily winning his first full term as governor despite being competitive   

I think we Dems have gotten over crying for these two states RIP