One Voter, One Vote Congressional Districts

[jimrtex]

TX-14 is in Brazoria and Galveston counties.



Its electorate is 100.2% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.958 of the average. Its population is 0.897 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

VAP: White 58.4%, Hispanic 21.5%, Black 14.6%, Asian 4.6%.

Largest cities are Pearland, League City, Galveston, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson, Angleton, La Marque, Seabrook, Santa Fe, Manvel, and Freeport.

TX-14 is comprised of most of two counties: Galveston 51.9% (97.2% of county) and  Brazoria 48.1% (90.2% of county).

Sources of TX-14 (2022): TX-13 69.1%% and TX-22 30.9%.

Distribution of TX-14 (2012): TX-14 63.8%, TX-36 30.1%, TX-27 4.8%, and TX-2 1.4%.

The district sheds Jefferson and picks up parts of northern Brazoria and Galveston parties.

In 2020, TX-14 was Trump 58.5%, Biden 39.9%. The current district was Trump 59.0%, Biden 39.5%. It is a bit surprising the change was so small given losing Jefferson, which is historically Democratic leaning but tending to be competitive, while the suburban areas added are becoming more Democratic.

Randy Weber lives in Alvin, where he relocated after his election after Ron Paul's retirement. He previously had been a city council member in Pearland, so he could choose to live there.

[jimrtex]

TX-15 is in South Texas including most of Hidalgo County.



Its electorate is 99.6% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.173 of the average. Its population is 1.459 of the average.

VAP that is greater than average indicates relatively low performance due to either higher non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. Population that is greater than average indicates a combination of fewer eligible voters (less citizens or fewer adults (over 18) or lower turnout). That population is so much higher indicates low turnout.

VAP: Hispanic 84.5%, White 13.6%, Asian 0.8%, Black 0.8%.

Largest cities are McAllen, Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Alton, Alice, Donna, Rio Grande City, Hidalgo, La Homa CDP, Roma, and Pleasonton.

TX-15 is comprised of ten counties and almost all of an eleventh: Hidalgo 74.5% (97.5% of county), Atascosa 6.3%, Starr 6.1%, Jim Wells 4.7%, Karnes 1.8%, Live Oak 1.8%, Duval 1.7%, Zapata 1.3%, Brooks 0.9%, Jim Hogg 0.7%, McMullen 0.2%, Anderson 0.0%,

Sources of TX-15 (2022): TX-15 57.9%, TX-28 26.5%, TX-34 15.6%.

Distribution of TX-15 (2012): TX-15 70.3%, TX-27 27.4%, TX-34 2.3%.

The district gains almost all of Hidalgo.

In 2020, TX-15 was Biden 53.7%, Trump 45.4%. The current district was Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5%. So the district is a bit more Democratic. Based on the presidential results at least, it may be difficult to show racially polarized voting in a district that is 85% Hispanic.

Vicente Gonzalez could be vulnerable to the right Republican candidate, though the district is slightly more favorable to him.

[jimrtex]

I've redone the demographic statistics based on the 2020 Census Data, and have added some other information. I will be reposting the districts.

[jimrtex]

TX-1 is in Deep East Texas



TX-1 is comprised of 10 whole counties: Smith 34.4%, Gregg 16.5%, Angelina 11.9%, Harrison 10.2%, Nacogdoches 9.2%, Rusk 7.4%, Panola 3.9%, Shelby 3.5%, Marion 1.7%, and San Augustine 1.4%,

Largest cities are Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Marshall, Kilgore, and Henderson.

Sources of TX-1 (2022) are TX-1 98.3%, and TX-4 1.7%

Distribution of TX-1 (2012) is TX-1 93.6%, TX-4 4.6%, and TX-36 1.8%

Its electorate is 100.3% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.943 of the average. Its population is 0.929 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either higher eligibility or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

Adult: 76.2% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 62.3%, Black 17.0%, Hispanic 16.0%, Other 3.5%, Asian 1.3%.
All Ages: White 58.6%, Hispanic 19.0%, Black 17.1%, Other 4.1%, Asian 1.2%.

(I use a different definition than DRA. Anyone with two or more races is included with Other. DRA considers anyone who is Black and White, or Asian and White, to be Black and Asian, respectively (one drop rule).

Housing vacancy rate: 11.9% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
Higher vacancy rates may simply represent lake houses, beach houses, acreages, hunting leases, etc., or in small towns or rural areas, housing that is no longer used).

Persons per household: 2.55 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 3.4%, Prison 1.1%, Colleges 1.3%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

College group quarters includes dorms, but not apartments or persons living at home. TX-1 has several prisons particularly in Rusk County. The college population would be largely at Stephen F Austin (SFA) and to a lesser extent UT Tyler.

In 2020 TX-1 was 70.7% Trump, 28.0% Biden. Louis Gohmert (R) would win re-election in this district.

[jimrtex]

TX-2 is in northern, northeastern, eastern, and southeastern Harris County with a bit in Galveston County.



TX-2 is comprised of parts of 2 counties: Harris 98.5% (17.4% of county) and Galveston 1.5% (2,8%) of county.

Largest cities (places) are Houston (part, Kingwood and Clear Lake), Atascocita CDP, Spring CDP, Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park, Seabrook, Pasadena (part), and Webster.

Sources of TX-2 (2022) are TX-2 48.8%, TX-36 34.6%, TX-18 9.5%, TX-8 3.5%, TX-22 1.5%, TX-14 1.5%, TX-29 0.5%

TX-2 shifted clockwise, gaining the area along the eastern boundary from TX-36 as that district was pushed out of the county, and giving up the arm that swings down into central/near west Houston. This is more aligned with the pre-2012 version of the district, at least the Harris County part. TX-2 was historically an east Texas district which has now been sucked into Harris County.

Distribution of TX-2 (2012) is TX-2 40.3%, TX-18 33.6%, TX-10 15.0%, TX-7 8.6%, TX-29 2.5%.

Most of the area lost is in the western arm that swings down into central/near west Houston.

Its electorate is 99.7% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.916 of the average. Its population is 0.926 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 74.2% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 48.5%, Hispanic 27.6%, Black 15.2%, Asian 4.7%, Other 4.0%,
All Ages: White 44.7%, Hispanic 30.8%, Black 15.8%, Other 4.5%, Asian 4.4%.

Housing vacancy rate: 6.9% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
Higher vacancy rates may simply represent lake houses, beach houses, acreages, hunting leases, etc., or in small towns or rural areas, housing that is no longer used).

Persons per household: 2.81 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 0.6%, Prison 0.3%, Colleges 0.0%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-2 was 57.2% Trump, Biden 41.4%. This is decidedly more Republican than the current TX-2 which was Trump 49.9%, Biden 48.6%. I don't know where Dan Crenshaw (R) lives but he could easily win re-election even without moving. His district offices are in Kingwood and Spring, both of which remain in the district. He could conceivably establish an office in southeast Harris County, such as in La Porte.

[jimrtex]

TX-3 is in southern Collin, with a tiny bit in Denton County.



TX-3 is comprised of parts of 2 counties: Collin 95.9% (56.6% of county) and Denton 4.1% (2.8% of the county).

Largest cities are Plano, Allen, Dallas (portions in Collin and Denton counties), Richardson (portion in Collin County), Murphy, Princeton, and Fairview.

Sources of TX-3 (2022) are TX-3 91.1%, TX-24 4.1%, TX-4 3.1%, and TX-32 1.8%.

Distribution of TX-3 (2012) is TX-3 61.2%, TX-39 38.3%, TX-5 is 0.5%.

Most of the new district is in the current district, but a substantial portion of the current district was lopped off in the formation of TX-38, The areas lost are more Republican leaning, and the small areas that have been added are generally along the southern edge.

The boundary between TX-3 and the new district TX-38 is along city limits with Plano and Allen to the south, and Frisco and McKinney to the north. The district was extended into Denton County to include the small portions of Dallas and Plano in that county. This was primarily done for population balancing reasons. Similarly, the lightly populated eastern part of the county was included in TX-3 for population balancing reasons.

Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.856 of the average. Its population is 0.837 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 76.7% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 51.6%, Asian 19.2%, Hispanic 14.6%, Black 10.3%, Other 4.2%.
All Ages: White 48.4%, Asian 19.7%, Hispanic 16.3%, Black 10.6%, Other 5.0%.

Housing vacancy rate: 5.3% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
This is among the lowest in the state. It is a suburban area with new housing that is in good condition.

Persons per household: 2.60 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 0.7%, Prison 0.0%, Colleges 0.5%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-3 was Biden 50.4%, Trump 47.8%. The current district was Trump 49.6% Biden 48.6%, so the district shifted 1.8% towards the Democrats. On the other hand, the incumbent Van Taylor, who lives in Plano was re-elected on a 55.1% to 42.9% margin. His opponent may have been hurt by the fact that she only registered in the district in December 2019 at the filing deadline. She had voted in 2016 and 2018 at her parents home in Dallas, while living and working in California. Her husband was still registered in Placer County.

[jimrtex]

TX-4 is in northeast Texas.



TX-4 is comprised of 16 whole counties and a portion of a 17th: Grayson 20.5%, Hunt 13.3%, Bowie 13.2%, Wood 7.8%, Lamar 7.3%, Upshur 6.5%, Hopkins 5.5%, Fannin 5.2%, Cass 4.8%, Titus 3.6%, Rains 2.1%, Red River 2.0%, Morris 1.9%, Collin 1.9% (1.1% of whole county), Camp 1.7%, Franklin 1.7%, and Delta 0.9%.

Largest cities are Sherman, Texarkana, Greenville, Denison, Paris, Mount Pleasant, Sulphur Springs, Anna, and Bonham.

Sources of TX-4 (2022) are TX-4 90.3%, TX-1 4.9%, and TX-5 4.8%.

Distribution of TX-4 (2012) is TX-4 75.4%, TX-5 16.5%, TX-38 4.1%, TX-3 2.6%, and TX-1 1.4%.

Historically TX-4 was west of TX-1 and designed to keep Sam Rayburn and Wright Patman in separate underpopulated districts. After the OMOV decisions, the districts were expanded to the south, with TX-4 sweeping east to Tyler and Longview, and TX-1 wrapping around it. At that time, TX-3 which had been south of the two was moved into Dallas County and has since drifted north into Collin County.

In the 1991 Democratic gerrymander, TX-4 was drawn as a Republican sink that would continue to elect Democrat Ralph Hall, while pulling out Democratic areas in cities like Tyler and Greenville so that TX-1 and TX-5 might continue to elect Democrats.

The 2003 Republican map rotated TX-4 and TX-1, but kept Rockwall in the district as an inducement for Ralph Hall to switch parties, and to elect a Republican from TX-1. John Ratcliffe was also from Rockwall. When Ratcliffe resigned to become Director of National Intelligence, Pat Fallon was chosen by precinct officials to become the Republican nominee.

Fallon's original political foray was as a city councilman from the Denton County portion of Frisco. He then was elected from a Denton County Texas House district, which he may have moved into. He then was elected to the Texas Senate from a district that overlaps TX-4 but is somewhat more westerly, and also required him to move to be in the district.

If he had had to run in the primary for TX-4 his living outside the district might have been a fatal liability. He has since changed his residence to Sherman. It could make more sense to run for election in the new TX-38 which is focused on Frisco, and leave TX-5 as an open seat.

Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.923 of the average. Its population is 0.902 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

Adult: 76.8% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 71.7%, Hispanic 12.0%, Black 10.3%, Other 5.1%, Asian 0.9%,.
All Ages: White 68.2%, Hispanic 14.6%, Black 10.3%, Other 5.9%, Asian 0.9%.

Housing vacancy rate: 12.0% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
A higher vacancy rate may be due to rural and smaller towns having housing that is not definitively abandoned, but considered functionally obsolete. There may also be second homes on many of the lakes in the area, or eventual retirement homes for residents of the Dallas area.

Persons per household: 2.55 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 2.6%, Prison 1.3%, Colleges 0.5%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-4 was 76.6% Trump, 22.2% Biden. Pat Fallon could win re-election in this district, if not challenged in the primary as an interloper. He could also run in the new TX-38 making this an open seat.

[jimrtex]

TX-5 is the southern and eastern suburbs and exurbs of Dallas.



TX-5 is comprised of five whole counties and parts of two others: Ellis 29.7%, Kaufman 19.6%, Rockwall 18.7%, Henderson 12.6%, Collin 9.9% (5.8% of county), Van Zandt 9.0%, and Dallas 0.5% (0.2% of county).

Largest cities are Wylie, Rockwall (part in Rockwall County), Waxahachie, Midlothian, Forney, Ennis, Fate, Terrell, Red Oak, and Athens.

Sources of TX-5 (2022): TX-5 41.8%, TX-6 29.7%, TX-4 19.8%, TX-32 8.0%, and TX-3 9.7%.

Distribution of TX-5 (2012): TX-5 42.6%, TX-33 33.9%, TX-32 14.9%, TX-39 13.7%, and TX-4 5.0%

Generally, TX-5 is pushed out of Dallas County, while adding Ellis, Rockwall, and a small part of Collin. Also areas more remote from the DFW area are lost.

Its electorate is 99.5% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.866 of the average. Its population is 0.883 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 73.6% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 65.1%, Hispanic 18.6%, Black 10.0%, Other 4.2%, Asian 2.1%.
All Ages: White 61.1%, Hispanic 21.6%, Black 10.4%, Other 4.8%, Asian 2.1.

Housing vacancy rate: 8.3% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).

Persons per household: 2.88 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 1.2%, Prison 0.5%, Colleges 0.2%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020, TX-5 was Trump 69.0%, Biden 29.6%. The current district was 60.8% to 37.9%. The incumbent Lance Gooden lives in Terrell and would easily be re-elected.

[jimrtex]

TX-6 is in southern Tarrant County.



TX-6 is comprised of part of one county: Tarrant 100% (34.8% of county).

Largest cities are Fort Worth (about 1/2 of district), Arlington (about 1/4 of district), Mansfield, Benbrook, White Settlement, and Rendon CDP.

Sources of TX-6 (2022): TX-6 51.5%, TX-12 43.2%, TX-33 5.3%.

Distribution of TX-6 (2012): TX-6 43.4%, TX-5 24.8%, TX-30 23.2%, TX-39 5.6%, TX-25 2.3%, TX-12 0.7%.

TX-6 is moved entirely into Tarrant County adding areas in the southwestern part of the county while dropping Ellis and Navarro.

Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.940 of the average. Its population is 0.930 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

Adult: 75.8% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 49.8%, Hispanic 24.5%, Black 17.0%, Asian 4.7%, Other 3.9%.
All Ages: White 45.3%, Hispanic 27.7%, Black 18.0%, Other 4.5%, Asian 4.5%.

Housing vacancy rate: 6.4% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).

Persons per household: 2.64 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 1.8%, Prison 0.3%, Colleges 1.0%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

The district includes TCU.

In 2020, TX-6 was Biden was 50.8%, Trump 47.6%. The current district was Trump 50.8%, Biden 47.8%. Thus the new boundaries tilt about 3% more Democrat.

Ron Wright was from Arlington. Jake Ellzey who was elected in the special election after Wright's death lives in Ellis County, outside the new district. It might make more sense for him to face off against Lance Gooden in TX-5, where Ellis will be the most populous county (Ellzey's campaign bio says he is raising his family on ten acres). He is a commercial airline pilot so he may be able to relocate easier than others. That would make the new TX-6 an open seat.