One Voter, One Vote Congressional Districts
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Author Topic: One Voter, One Vote Congressional Districts  (Read 3264 times)
jimrtex
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« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2021, 11:45:24 PM »

This is a racial overview of Dallas and Tarrant counties.



Dark brown tracts are majority Hispanic.
Lighter browns are majority non-Anglo, with the largest non-Anglo group Hispanic.

Dark green tracts are majority Black.
Lighter green are majority non-Anglo, with the largest non-Anglo group black.

Dark olive tracts are majority Asian (see Irving)
Lighter yellow are majority non-Anglo, with the largest non-Anglo group Asian.

Pale blue tracts are majority Anglo.

TX-33 will be shifted towards Dallas combining areas in west Dallas with areas in east Dallas continuing into east, an area in northwest Dallas, and perhaps northeast Dallas. Ideally, the district would just pick up the Hispanic areas of Grand Prairie and Arlington, and avoiding the bridge to Fort Worth through predominately black areas.

TX-30 will continue to be in South Dallas. TX-32 will be in north Dallas and northeast Dallas. TX-24 may be shifted more towards Tarrant.

TX-12 and TX-6 will be in Tarrant. One may become the minority district in Fort Worth.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #26 on: May 26, 2021, 04:29:23 PM »

This is the final map for Dallas - Tarrant



TX-33 is moved entirely into Dallas County. As I identified Hispanic-dominated areas of Dallas County, I discovered the Black-dominated areas to the south were only about half of a district. If we extended TX-30 north, we would be placing Hispanic areas in a district where they would be dominated by Black voters.

This duplicates the problem of the current map, where TX-33 is extended into Tarrant and picks up Black voters and a Black congressman.

So instead it is TX-30 that is extended into Tarrant, picking up Black areas of Fort Worth along the Trinity River and into southeast Fort Worth. This does require a link through Grand Prairie and Arlington which is more Hispanic.

TX-6, TX-12, TX-24, and TX-32 were then drawn around TX-30 and TX-33.

I tried to follow city boundaries. Split cities are Dallas, Fort Worth, Irving, Garland, Arlington, and Grand Prairie, which are largely divided for racial reasons.

TX-25 takes a small portion of southern Tarrant including Crowley and the northern tip of Cleburne. TX-5 takes a tiny bit of extra southeast Dallas County.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #27 on: May 29, 2021, 09:57:24 PM »

These are the racial classification of census tracts in Harris County.



Pale blue tracts are majority Anglo.

Dark brown tracts are majority Hispanic.
Light brown tracts are non-white majority with Hispanic the largest minority.
Olive tracts are majority Black.
Light green tracts are non-white majority with Blacks the largest minority.
Light yellow tracts are non-white majority with Asians the largest minority.
There are no majority Asian tracts in Harris County.

TX-29 will be the Hispanic areas in east and southeast Houston, and in north Houston. It may be necessary to extend this to get an electorate large enough for a district.

TX-18 will be northeast Houston, south Houston, and possibly northwest Houston.

TX-2 will be eastern Harris and northern Harris.
TX-9 will be a multiracial district in southwest Houston.
TX-7 will be west Houston.
TX-10 will be northwest Harris, Waller, and a bit of Montgomery.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #28 on: June 09, 2021, 05:51:10 PM »

These are the final districts for Harris County.



Generally, I placed the highest minority concentration in TX-9, TX-18, and TX-39, while placing majority Anglo areas in TX-2, TX-7, and TX-10.

I first placed TX-29 in the majority Hispanic areas similar to its current configuration. TX-9 is also similar to its current configuration, but extends further north in the 3rd Ward). About 1/4 of TX-9 will extend into Fort Bend, likely similar to its current configuration.

TX-18 added a large area in northwest Houston. It is likely to be a performing black district, but if not it does not really matter. The Black population is 18% of the county, and the Hispanic population is 43%.

TX-2 was shifted clockwise, though the district will still be concentrated in northern and northeast Harris County. It will have a tiny bit of Galveston County.

TX-7 is similar to its current configuration.

TX-10 is shifted majorly towards Houston, but does include Waller, and a small bit of Montgomery.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #29 on: June 14, 2021, 08:02:40 AM »

This is the final Fort Bend map.



The area covered by TX-9 is quite similar to the current map. One precinct that is in the city of Houston was added in the northern arm. The southern arm was more closely conformed to Houston and Missouri City, inside Texas 6.



This is the final Brazoria County map.



The boundary between TX-27 and TX-14 largely follows the Brazos River, with two precincts on the west bank in the Freeport area included in TX-14. This was largely done for population equality reasons, but does do a better job of capturing the Lake Jackson area.

An alternative would have been to come in from the west and take in all of the Lake Jackson area, but this would have been very much a keyhole shape with a connecting corridor and then bulging out to capture most but not all of the built-up area.



This is the final Houston metro map.



Harris, Fort Bend, and Brazoria County are divided as shown on the previous map.

One precinct in the southwest corner of Montgomery is included in TX-10. One precinct on the south side of Clear Lake in Galveston County is included in TX-2. These precincts were largely chosen for reasons of population equality.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #30 on: June 14, 2021, 07:24:23 PM »

This is the final division for Hidalgo.



TX-34 is given the city of Mercedes. It was chosen because of its size and is only 15 miles from Harlingen.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #31 on: June 18, 2021, 02:23:42 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2021, 02:49:21 AM by jimrtex »

This is the final 39 district map. Standard deviation is 0.24%.





12 counties are divided.





San Antonio-Austin I-35 corridor. 6-1/2 districts.





DFW (Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton) 9 districts, bits of four others.





Houston (Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston) 9 districts.

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Brittain33
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« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2021, 08:10:52 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2021, 09:00:21 AM by Brittain33 »

What happens to the gap between 11 and 16 if you move Loving County over to the Hispanic district? Does it even out population or tip 16 into being more populous?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2021, 03:36:31 PM »
« Edited: June 19, 2021, 08:55:14 PM by jimrtex »

What happens to the gap between 11 and 16 if you move Loving County over to the Hispanic district? Does it even out population or tip 16 into being more populous?
The gap between TX-11 and TX-16 is 284. Loving County had 66 votes, so it would reduce the gap a bit to 152.

Under the current map TX-16 had 0.834 and TX-23 had 1.043. In eliminating a district from Bexar, TX-23 increased to 1.296.

I likely expanded TX-16 to get to the Pecos River and saw that Ward had the right population to get very close to 1.000. Meanwhile, the existing TX-28 was eliminated and TX-23 extend down to include Webb. Counties that had been in TX-23 were then moved to TX-11.

At that point TX-11 was at 1.070 or 1.080. I then a more global apportionment for the five west Texas districts (TX-11, TX-13, TX-16, TX-19, and TX-25) giving them a collective population close to 5.000 while equalizing among the five districts. But TX-16 was so close at that point it was ignored, so that I never really looked into improving pairwise equality between TX-11 and TX-16.

Loving is so tiny, so even though it was 60-4-2 Trump-Biden-Jorgenson, shifting it into TX-16 would only decrease the Biden share of the vote in that district from 64.45% to 64.43%.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2021, 09:25:16 PM »

I believe Crenshaw lives in the Houston Heights (probably in your TX-18).  What are the racial demographics of this district?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #35 on: June 23, 2021, 01:04:34 PM »

I believe Crenshaw lives in the Houston Heights (probably in your TX-18).  What are the racial demographics of this district?
While he has ties to Houston he has spent much of his live elsewhere. His father worked in the oil industry, much of it internationally.

Crenshaw was born in Aberdeen, Scotland, and attended schools in Colombia and Ecuador, and graduated from high school in Bogota. He went to Tufts University (outside Boston) for his college education and went directly into the Navy and Seals after graduation. He would not have been stationed in Texas since he was not in Naval Aviation. He met his wife at Coronado (her father is a Vice Admiral).

He may have lived in Katy during part of his youth, which would match up with his father working in the Energy Corridor (I-10 West/Katy Freeway). He was separated from the Navy in 2016. After separation he went the JFK School of Government at Harvard, and for a short while was on Pete Sessions staff (presumably in Washington rather than Dallas).

His campaign website said he assisted in Katy during Harvey, which was in 2017. It makes sense that he was living in Katy at that time, though not necessarily.

The original arm down into near west Houston was not as weird as it ended up. The federal district court forced TX-18 and TX-9 to be pushed further north, which in turn made TX-2 take a more circuitous loop around TX-18.

I did find a story about the election-night watch party at the time of the 1018 primary which was at a bar on Washington Ave, which would be consistent with his living in the Heights.



I don't have data on the demographic makeup. I did use ACS data for census tracts to roughly determine minority areas in the larger cities (Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Houston), but that did not have CVAP data. And my maps are drawn with election precincts. I may check to see if there is some way to do batch input to DRA.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2021, 02:49:45 PM »

I believe Crenshaw lives in the Houston Heights (probably in your TX-18).  What are the racial demographics of this district?

I figured out how to load the maps into DRA. This is the racial composition by VAP (not CVAP).

VAP: White 57.8%, Hispanic 22.3%, Black 14.9%, Asian 3.9%.

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dpmapper
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« Reply #37 on: June 30, 2021, 09:31:36 AM »

TX-4 is in northeast Texas.
...

VAP: White 64.5%, Asian 12.6%, Black 12.0%, Hispanic 9.8%.

This can't be correct? 
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jimrtex
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« Reply #38 on: June 30, 2021, 10:53:33 AM »

TX-4 is in northeast Texas.
...

VAP: White 64.5%, Asian 12.6%, Black 12.0%, Hispanic 9.8%.

This can't be correct? 

Better?

VAP: White 78.9%, Black 11.7%, Hispanic 7.0%, Asian 0.7%.

I copied the values for TX-3. It is interesting that Black and Hispanic percentages for the two districts are so similar.

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dpmapper
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« Reply #39 on: July 01, 2021, 11:15:16 PM »

Thanks for doing this, this is a fascinating exercise. 

One thing that might be interesting is if you could list the total population of each district so we can see how much switching to CVAP changes things. 

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jimrtex
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« Reply #40 on: July 02, 2021, 10:37:48 PM »

Thanks for doing this, this is a fascinating exercise. 

One thing that might be interesting is if you could list the total population of each district so we can see how much switching to CVAP changes things. 



Does this link give you access to the map on DRA?

Texas OMOV Congressional District Map

I have added the population and VAP (so far just TX-1 and TX-2).

If we were doing this for real we would probably have to use CVAP, rather than votes cast which is only partially a proxy. Turnout among citizen adults is lower based on age, income and somewhat based on race. Black and White turnout are about the same, and adjusted for income may even be higher for Blacks. Asian and Hispanic turnout even among citizens may be lower.
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dpmapper
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« Reply #41 on: July 03, 2021, 08:05:07 AM »

It works, thanks.  Crazy that there are some districts that are almost 3 times the population of others. 
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jimrtex
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« Reply #42 on: July 04, 2021, 01:28:12 AM »

It works, thanks.  Crazy that there are some districts that are almost 3 times the population of others. 
DRA says a 95% deviation range is outside what is typically accepted.

I've added the VAP and population for TX-1 through TX-6.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #43 on: July 05, 2021, 04:27:51 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2021, 09:01:18 PM by jimrtex »

TX-7 is in west Houston.



Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.866 of the average. Its population is 0.897 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is greater than the VAP indicates somewhat lower  turnout in a largely suburban district.

VAP: White 58.5%, Hispanic 19.4%, Black 12.7%, Asian 8.5%.

Largest cities are Houston (west), Katy (Harris County), Bellaire, West University Place, and Memorial villages,

TX-7 is comprised of part of one county: Harris 100% (17.7% of county).

Sources of TX-7 (2022): TX-7 74.0%, TX-10 15.5%, TX-2 10.4%

Distribution of TX-7 (2012): TX-7 67.7%, TX-10 17.0%, TX-9 9.7%, TX-18 5.5%.

TX-7 is moved slightly westward.

In 2020, TX-7 was Biden was 52.5%, Trump 46.0%. The current district was Biden 53.6%, 45.1%. Thus the new boundaries shift 1% more favorable for a Republican.

Lizzie Fletcher was elected by a 50.8% to 47.4% margin in 2020. With a one percent shift this would become quite competitive, particularly if Dan Crenshaw were to run in the district.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #44 on: July 06, 2021, 09:00:00 PM »

TX-8 is in Montgomery and Walker counties.



Its electorate is 100.3% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.917 of the average. Its population is 0.878 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a suburban/exurban district.

VAP: White 74.5%, Hispanic 14.4%, Black 7.9%, Asian 2.2%.

Largest cities are The Woodlands (CDP), Conroe, and Huntsville. The small part of Houston (Kingwood) that is Montgomery County is also in the district.

TX-8 is comprised of part of almost all of one county and all of another: Montgomery 91.9% (98.5% of county) and Walker 8.1%,

Sources of TX-8 (2022): TX-8 100.0%.

Distribution of TX-8 (2012): TX-8 74.9%, TX-10 9.4%, TX-39 8.0%, TX-36 5.0%, TX-2 2.6%.

All of the new TX-8 is in the current district. About 1/4 of the current district is stripped off including all or parts of five more remote counties and the portion that is in Harris County.

In 2020, TX-8 was Trump 70.5%, Biden 28.0%. The current district was Trump 70.5%, Biden 28.1% Thus the new boundaries have zero effect on the partisan leanings.

Kevin Brady is retiring so the new representative will be chosen in the Republican primary. Ballotpedia shows 12 candidates as of now.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #45 on: July 10, 2021, 05:45:02 PM »

TX-9 is in south and southwest Houston and extends into Fort Bend County



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.113 of the average. Its population is 1.355 of the average.

VAP that is greater than average indicates relatively low performance due to either greater  non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. Population that is greater than average indicates a combination of fewer eligible voters (more non-citizens or more children (under 18) or lower turnout). That the population is even greater than the VAP indicates low turnout in a district with a large non-citizen population.

VAP: Black 46.0%, Hispanic 24.1%, White 18.4%, Asian 11.0%.

Largest cities are Houston (most of the Harris part of the district is in Houston, and some of the Fort Bend part) and Missouri City (generally north of Texas 6). Also Mission Bend CDP, Fresno CDP and Four Corners CDP).

TX-9 is comprised of part of two counties: Harris 76.5% (13.5% of county) and Fort Bend 23.5% (19.0% of county).

Sources of TX-9 (2022): TX-9 76.9%, TX-18 10.8%, TX-7 10.7%, TX-22 2.0%.

Distribution of TX-9 (2012): TX-9 94.4%, TX-22 3.4%, TX-29 2.2%.

All of the new TX-9 is retained in the current district, which expands northward in Houston.

In 2020, TX-9 was Biden 76.2%, Trump 22.7%. The current district was Biden 75.7%, Trump 23.2%. Thus the new boundaries make the district 0.5% more Democratic.

Sheila Jackson Lee lives in the portion of TX-18 moved into TX-9. It is not required that a representative live in their district. Both Jackson Lee and Al Green are over 70.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #46 on: July 11, 2021, 05:01:01 PM »

TX-10 is in northwest Harris County and Waller county and a smidgen of Montgomery county.



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.846 of the average. Its population is 0.855 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

VAP: White 56.6%, Hispanic 19.5%, Black 15.0%, Asian 8.0%.

Largest cities are Houston (relatively small population in fence lines), The Woodlands (CDP) (portion in Harris County), Katy (portion in Waller County), and Tomball.

TX-10 is comprised of part of two counties and all of another: Harris 90.8% (16.1% of County), Waller 7.8%, and Montgomery 1.4% (1.5% of county).

Sources of TX-10 (2022): TX-10 50.7%, TX-7 18.6%, TX-2 18.1%, TX-8 12.6%.

Distribution of TX-10 (2012): TX-10 34.9%, TX-35 22.8%, TX-37 12.3%, TX-7 10.7%, TX-27 5.4%.

The district moves substantially into Harris County, losing the parts in the Austin area and in between. This reflects the fact that the Houston metro area is entitled to 9 districts.

In 2020, TX-10 was Trump 59.0%, Biden 39.6%. The current district was Trump 50.0%, Biden 48.4%. Loss of the Austin part of the district makes the district substantially more Republican.

Michael McCaul lives in Austin. He might face a primary opponent if he ran in TX-10, but he has considerable personal wealth. He could also run in the new TX-39.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #47 on: July 17, 2021, 08:28:14 AM »

TX-11 is in West Texas including the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and Hill Country.



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.111 of the average. Its population is 1.059 of the average.

VAP that is above average indicates relatively low performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. That the population variation is less than the VAP indicates higher participation among eligible adults.

VAP: White 57.4%, Hispanic 36.9%, Black 3.9%, Asian 0.8%.

Largest cities are Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Del Rio, Big Spring, Kerrville, Andrews, and Fredericksburg.

TX-11 is comprised of 33 counties: Midland 20.3%, Tom Green 15.5%, Ector 15.4%, Kerr 9.6%, Gillespie 5.5%, Val Verde 5.3%, Bandera 4.4%, Llano 4.4%, Howard 3.5%, Andrews 2.0%, Runnels 1.5%, Coleman 1.4%, McCulloch 1.2%, San Saba 0.9%, Mason 0.9%, Kimble 0.8%, Martin 0.7%, Winkler 0.7%, Real 0.7%, Coke 0.6%, Crockett 0.5%, Sutton 0.5%, Crane 0.5%, Upton 0.5%, Concho 0.4%, Schleicher 0.4%, Reagan 0.4%, Edwards 0.4%, Menard 0.4%, Irion 0.3%, Glasscock 0.2%, Sterling 0.2%, and Loving 0.02%.

Sources of TX-11 (2022): TX-11 67.1%, TX-21 20.1%, TX-23 9.2%, TX-19 3.5%.

Distribution of TX-11 (2012): TX-11 65.4%, TX-25 26.6%, TX-19 8.1%.

The district adds in the southeast from TX-21, transferring area in the northeast to TX-25.

In 2020, TX-11 was Trump 76.0%, Biden 22.8%. The current district was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.7%.

August Pfluger is from San Angelo, he won a 10 candidate primary without a runoff. At 42, he could hold this seat for decades.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #48 on: July 18, 2021, 11:21:34 PM »

TX-12 is in central, western, and northern Tarrant County.



Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.981 of the average. Its population is 0.986 of the average.

That the electorate, VAP, and population are all about par indicates a mix of central city, inner suburbs, and outer suburbs. Fort Worth is generally more working class than Dallas, and jobs at DFW do not require a college degree.

VAP: White 63.5%, Hispanic 21.6%, Black 8.9%, Asian 4.7%.

Largest cities are Fort Worth (Central and North), North Richland Hills, Keller, Haltom City, Hurst, Watauga, Saginaw, and Azle.

TX-12 is part on one county: Tarrant 100.0% (34.8% of county)

Sources of TX-12 (2022): TX-12 54.3%, TX-26 29.5%, TX-24 8.6%, TX-33 6.9%, TX-6 0.8%.

Distribution of TX-12 (2012): TX-12 42.5%, TX-6 33.8%, TX-25 20.5%, TX-13 3.2%

The district moves northward pushing TX-26 out of Tarrant, while giving up southwestern Tarrant to TX-6, and areas outside the county to TX-25.

In 2020, TX-12 was Trump 57.0%, Biden 41.3%. The current district was Trump 60.4%, Biden 37.9%. The 3% leftward shift will not make the district competitive.

Kay Granger is 78 and serving her 13th term. She fended off a primary challenger in 2020. Shedding exurbs may make her more secure, but her age may become an issue.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #49 on: July 30, 2021, 11:21:52 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 01:38:38 PM by jimrtex »

TX-13 is in West Texas including the Panhandle and upper Red River. US 287 provides the connection between the two areas (watch out for the speed trap in Estelline).



Its electorate is 100.5% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.096 of the average. Its population is 1.017 of the average.

VAP that is above average indicates relatively low performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. That the population variation is less than the VAP indicates higher participation among eligible adults.

VAP: White 72.8%, Hispanic 18.5%, Black 5.7%, Asian 1.4%.

Largest cities are Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Pampa, Gainesville, Canyon, Hereford, Dumas, Borger, and Vernon.

TX-13 is comprised of 36 whole counties and a bit of a 37th: Randall 22.2%, Wichita 15.8%, Potter 11.4%, Wise 11.1%, Cooke 6.5%, Montague 3.4%, Hutchinson 3.0%, Gray 2.7%, Denton 2.5% (1.7% of county), Clay 2.0%, Moore 1.9%, Archer 1.6%, Deaf Smith 1.6%, Wilbarger 1.6%, Jack 1.3%, Ochiltree 1.1%, Carson 1.1%, Wheeler 0.8%, Childress 0.8%, Hartley 0.7%, Hansford 0.7%, Hemphill 0.6%, Baylor 0.6%, Donley 0.6%, Dallam 0.6%, Hardeman 0.5%, Knox 0.5%, Lipscomb 0.5%, Collingsworth 0.4%, Hall 0.4%, Armstrong 0.4%, Oldham 0.3%, Sherman 0.3%, Cottle 0.2%, Foard 0.2%, Roberts 0.2%, and King 0.1%.

Sources of TX-13 (2022): TX-13 93.4%, TX-12 4.1%, and TX-26 2.5%.

Distribution of TX-13 (2012): TX-13 98.0%, TX-19 2.0%.

The district largely conforms to the current district with a bit added on the east end.

In 2020, TX-13 was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.5%. The current district was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.4%, so virtually no change.

Ronny Jackson was elected in 2020 after Mac Thornberry decided not run for re-election after 13 terms. There was some controversy about his residence, since it was only established after he decided to run and resigned from the Navy. In a December 2019 interview he corrected the reporting, by stating that he had lived in Amarillo for one-and-a-half months. He did grow up in Levelland. Jackson had a come-from-behind win in the primary runoff. This is a district where a Trump endorsement would be helpful.
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