What do you think of the hyperinflation talk
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  What do you think of the hyperinflation talk
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Author Topic: What do you think of the hyperinflation talk  (Read 345 times)
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« on: April 11, 2021, 07:11:05 PM »

I have been hearing some discussion about how the world is heading towards hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic. What do you think about it?
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satsuma
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2021, 08:22:17 PM »

That seems very unlikely. Where's the crisis to trigger it? and has it ever happened to several important countries all at once?
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SecularGlobalist
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2021, 10:39:35 AM »

Deflation is vastly superior. 
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Alex
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2021, 08:59:41 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 10:16:43 PM by Alex »

Yeah, the hyperinflation talk is stupid AF, and that's coming from an Argentinean
Even constant high inflation rarely gets to hyperinflation levels, we've had inflation rates over 20% (often getting to 40+) every year for the last decade (and a large part of the previous one), plus a huge foreign exchange rate mess, and we're still nowhere near hyperinflation
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Cassandra
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2021, 11:22:15 AM »

Eventually the US dollar will lose its status as the world's reserve currency, and we'll see hellish inflation in this country then. But, in my view, there's little reason to fear that happening in the near term.
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Chips
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2021, 08:42:01 PM »

Probably nothing to worry about in the short term. Long term, Maybe.
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PSOL
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2021, 10:35:56 PM »

Not till the 2040s am I concerned about inflation.
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AGA
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2021, 01:25:46 AM »

I trust the Fed.
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Frank
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2021, 04:54:02 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2021, 06:53:12 AM by Frank »

1.This isn't completely accurate based on the U.S History, but I remember somebody retweeted this which I gather was originally meant as a serious tweet: "I've been warning you for 46 years now how government deficits will lead to hyper-inflation!"

2.The hyperinflation chicken littles are either gold bug charlatans (or crypto charlatans now) or Republican economic elite charlatans to the degree that they aren't one and the same.

3.I don't know that people can't have a good grasp of economics, macro or otherwise, it's mostly just common sense of following a process through from one logical (or most likely) step to the next.   The main problem for most people I think is as Yoda (almost) said "you have much to unlearn."  Most people's understanding of economics is clouded by all the nonsense spewed by charlatans.

4.Inflation is a real concern as many commodity prices (inputs) are increasing.  This is especially the case with many nations all over the world deciding to deficit spend their way out of the pandemic, which will likely also lead to upward pressure on interest rates.

However, with the brief exception when oil prices rose significantly in 2006-2007, inflation has been largely non existent for 30 years now.  To claim the economy has not significantly changed from the 1990s to now and that inflation will return in the U.S in some significant way due to large government budget deficits is clearly not supported by reality.

So, all in all, I think there will be a return of inflation that may exceed the 2% upper target, to maybe 3% (I'm really purely guessing but...), but the Biden Administration seems to be aware of these concerns and the economy is so much more globalized, so I don't think there will be any inflationary spiral as we saw starting in 1966 and then again around 1986 (1987 actually, but I like the symmetry.)



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AverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2021, 07:16:45 AM »

As I said on AAD, I'm going all-in on fiat and have agreed to take my salary entirely in US dollars.

That said, it's hard not to feel anxious about whether some core assumptions about financial reality will hold over the next few years. Inflation isn't the only relevant indicator, as far as that is concerned: If I'm priced out of my local housing market, I don't give a sh**t what CPI is.
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Damocles
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« Reply #10 on: April 21, 2021, 01:51:40 PM »

Itís just baseless fearmongering by charlatans and hucksters to appeal to people who have little understanding of economics, or how money actually behaves.
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