MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[Real Texan Politics]

So...I'm hearing things aren't looking too good?

In what respect?

Ballot signature scandals surrounding Craig and I think some other candidates.

[wbrocks67]

The GOP's implosion in the PA, WI, and MI gov races is truly something behold.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP's implosion in the PA, WI, and MI gov races is truly something behold.

They weren't gonna win them no ways all the R candidates said Trump won and he didn't

[Senator Incitatus]

So...I'm hearing things aren't looking too good?

In what respect?

Ballot signature scandals surrounding Craig and I think some other candidates.

Are signature challenges a scandal now? I wasn't aware there were races where they didn't happen. I know campaign staffers who put "challenge signatures" in their standard calendar.

Even if Craig is removed from the ballot, it's not like he was unopposed. The Republicans will have a nominee in a state where turnout and Whitmer's unpopularity should give them a major edge. Perhaps even more so if voters think that they lost their first choice due to election law chicanery.

Based on what I'm reading, the Democrats would need to succeed on over 6,000 challenges. I've never heard of something like that happening.

This in particular is hilarious:

The Democratic challenge to Dixon’s signatures focus on an apparent error in the header of her nominating petitions. The campaign indicated she was running for a term that ends in 2026, but under the Michigan Constitution, the gubernatorial term will actually end on the first day of 2027.

...

“The inaccurate, misleading and false information” included in the header of  “every petition filed by the Dixon campaign violates the Michigan election law and voids those petitions,” [Democratic attorney] Liedel said.

[wbrocks67]

So...I'm hearing things aren't looking too good?

In what respect?

Ballot signature scandals surrounding Craig and I think some other candidates.

Are signature challenges a scandal now? I wasn't aware there were races where they didn't happen. I know campaign staffers who put "challenge signatures" in their standard calendar.

Even if Craig is removed from the ballot, it's not like he was unopposed. The Republicans will have a nominee in a state where turnout and Whitmer's unpopularity should give them a major edge. Perhaps even more so if voters think that they lost their first choice due to election law chicanery.

Based on what I'm reading, the Democrats would need to succeed on over 6,000 challenges. I've never heard of something like that happening.

This in particular is hilarious:

The Democratic challenge to Dixon’s signatures focus on an apparent error in the header of her nominating petitions. The campaign indicated she was running for a term that ends in 2026, but under the Michigan Constitution, the gubernatorial term will actually end on the first day of 2027.

...

“The inaccurate, misleading and false information” included in the header of  “every petition filed by the Dixon campaign violates the Michigan election law and voids those petitions,” [Democratic attorney] Liedel said.

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So...I'm hearing things aren't looking too good?

In what respect?

Ballot signature scandals surrounding Craig and I think some other candidates.

Are signature challenges a scandal now? I wasn't aware there were races where they didn't happen. I know campaign staffers who put "challenge signatures" in their standard calendar.

Even if Craig is removed from the ballot, it's not like he was unopposed. The Republicans will have a nominee in a state where turnout and Whitmer's unpopularity should give them a major edge. Perhaps even more so if voters think that they lost their first choice due to election law chicanery.

Based on what I'm reading, the Democrats would need to succeed on over 6,000 challenges. I've never heard of something like that happening.

This in particular is hilarious:

The Democratic challenge to Dixon’s signatures focus on an apparent error in the header of her nominating petitions. The campaign indicated she was running for a term that ends in 2026, but under the Michigan Constitution, the gubernatorial term will actually end on the first day of 2027.

...

“The inaccurate, misleading and false information” included in the header of  “every petition filed by the Dixon campaign violates the Michigan election law and voids those petitions,” [Democratic attorney] Liedel said.

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

She literally broke her own c0vid regulations which comes off as elitist and holier than thou. And you actually believe she's not unpopular?

[Politician]

So...I'm hearing things aren't looking too good?

In what respect?

Ballot signature scandals surrounding Craig and I think some other candidates.

Are signature challenges a scandal now? I wasn't aware there were races where they didn't happen. I know campaign staffers who put "challenge signatures" in their standard calendar.

Even if Craig is removed from the ballot, it's not like he was unopposed. The Republicans will have a nominee in a state where turnout and Whitmer's unpopularity should give them a major edge. Perhaps even more so if voters think that they lost their first choice due to election law chicanery.

Based on what I'm reading, the Democrats would need to succeed on over 6,000 challenges. I've never heard of something like that happening.

This in particular is hilarious:

The Democratic challenge to Dixon’s signatures focus on an apparent error in the header of her nominating petitions. The campaign indicated she was running for a term that ends in 2026, but under the Michigan Constitution, the gubernatorial term will actually end on the first day of 2027.

...

“The inaccurate, misleading and false information” included in the header of  “every petition filed by the Dixon campaign violates the Michigan election law and voids those petitions,” [Democratic attorney] Liedel said.

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

She literally broke her own c0vid regulations which comes off as elitist and holier than thou. And you actually believe she's not unpopular?

He worships at the feet of the D-biased hack polls saying a blue wave is coming.

[Senator Incitatus]

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

Pretty much everyone. Google "Whitmer approval rating."

Even the notoriously pro-incumbent Morning Consult poll has her at +4 today, which makes her the third-weakest incumbent facing re-election after Evers and Grisham. Even if you disregard all polling, it's clear that she stirs massive animosity in Republicans without really enthusing Democrats or independents. Intensity is different than net unpopularity but might matter even more in our current high-turnout political environment.

[wbrocks67]

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

Pretty much everyone. Google "Whitmer approval rating."

Even the notoriously pro-incumbent Morning Consult poll has her at +4 today, which makes her the third-weakest incumbent facing re-election after Evers and Grisham. Even if you disregard all polling, it's clear that she stirs massive animosity in Republicans without really enthusing Democrats or independents. Intensity is different than net unpopularity but might matter even more in our current high-turnout political environment.

The bottom line here is that a +4 approval rating in a swing state does not make her 'unpopular' as much as you wish it does. Not to mention, other public polling from this year has shown her with higher than that as well.

Not sure where you're getting that she doesn't enthuse Democrats either, it feels like a lot of people here wishcasting their own feelings about Whitmer onto the situation rather than what is actually happening in reality.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Ds in WI, Pa and MI have so so Approval is that, there are R state legislatures in those states whereas CA, NM, NV,  IL and NY they have solid D state legislature that's why incumbent D Govs are so vulnerable in those states like Evers, Rs are gonna have a super Majority State legislature because I'd Gerrymandering but he is still popular same with Shapiro Wolf is popular but Rs Dominate the R state legislature

But just like for Prez D's elect D Govs and Sen and for Prez D's in those three states

That answers your question why Ds are vulnerable

I have statistics two

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Who says Whitmer is "unpopular"?

Pretty much everyone. Google "Whitmer approval rating."

Even the notoriously pro-incumbent Morning Consult poll has her at +4 today, which makes her the third-weakest incumbent facing re-election after Evers and Grisham. Even if you disregard all polling, it's clear that she stirs massive animosity in Republicans without really enthusing Democrats or independents. Intensity is different than net unpopularity but might matter even more in our current high-turnout political environment.

The bottom line here is that a +4 approval rating in a swing state does not make her 'unpopular' as much as you wish it does. Not to mention, other public polling from this year has shown her with higher than that as well.

Not sure where you're getting that she doesn't enthuse Democrats either, it feels like a lot of people here wishcasting their own feelings about Whitmer onto the situation rather than what is actually happening in reality.

Yeah, I have to categorically disagree that she doesn't enthuse Democrats. In my experience, she gets a degree of admiration from Michigan Democrats (and suburban Democrats in particular) that well exceeds that of any other elected official at the moment, including Biden. Yes, her being singled out by the GOP as Enemy #1 for many months has energized her Republican opposition, but it has also galvanized Democrats in her defense. That isn't to say that she doesn't have a tough road ahead, because she does, but that's pretty much entirely just by virtue of the unfavorable national environment.

[Orwell]

Good to see Atlas Tan and Blue avatars certain that Whitmer is headed for a landslide loss in her reelect. I don't know who gonna win, I don't know who gonna lose. All I know is that it'll be kinda close. The current GOP frontrunner wants to repeal the state income tax which I mean I don't hate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When are they gonna release a poll

[Chips]

It is worth noting that the Democrats have had a lucky streak in Michigan as of late. With the top GOP contender (James Craig) potentially having just doomed himself from the nomination and Democrats having overperformed in several MI statewide elections. I still think it's a toss-up but of the toss-ups I'd now argue that this is the most likely to remain Democrat.

[wbrocks67]

What a hot ass mess.

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1524452513998585858

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What a hot ass mess.

https://twitter.com/jonathanoosting/status/1524452513998585858

Kick him off!  Kick him off!

[ProgressiveModerate]

It is worth noting that the Democrats have had a lucky streak in Michigan as of late. With the top GOP contender (James Craig) potentially having just doomed himself from the nomination and Democrats having overperformed in several MI statewide elections. I still think it's a toss-up but of the toss-ups I'd now argue that this is the most likely to remain Democrat.

The GOP has shot themselves in the foot over and over again. Like in hindsight Slotkin and Stevens should've been more serious targets in 2020 and they should've taken MI-Sen 2020 more seriously. MI-Sen 2014 was also embarrassing.

Also on the statewide office levels, the GOP always seems to run people outside the mainstream who really struggle to connect with voters and come off as either too extreme and/or too in it for themselves.

Considering they could still increase margins in many communities in the state and the main Dem vote get; Detroit, has been shrinking, the GOP really needs to take the state more serious long term, especially since the new maps make the state legistlature more competative and a Dem trifecta isn't out of the question this decade.

[Orwell]

It is worth noting that the Democrats have had a lucky streak in Michigan as of late. With the top GOP contender (James Craig) potentially having just doomed himself from the nomination and Democrats having overperformed in several MI statewide elections. I still think it's a toss-up but of the toss-ups I'd now argue that this is the most likely to remain Democrat.

The GOP has shot themselves in the foot over and over again. Like in hindsight Slotkin and Stevens should've been more serious targets in 2020 and they should've taken MI-Sen 2020 more seriously. MI-Sen 2014 was also embarrassing.

Also on the statewide office levels, the GOP always seems to run people outside the mainstream who really struggle to connect with voters and come off as either too extreme and/or too in it for themselves.

Considering they could still increase margins in many communities in the state and the main Dem vote get; Detroit, has been shrinking, the GOP really needs to take the state more serious long term, especially since the new maps make the state legistlature more competative and a Dem trifecta isn't out of the question this decade.

Wayne county isn’t really shrinking very fast and the main places gaining population Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, and the Detroit suburbs are all rapidly trending D so I don’t think this is as important as you’re making it out to be.

[Splash]

We should find out tonight whether Craig and two other GOP candidates are going to be kicked off the ballot.

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1528838834829545472

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In the end, 5 candidates could end up not making the Republican primary ballot due to a Board of Elections recommendation.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1528881448106745862

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1528880505269125121

[Splash]

In other news, the board of elections did recommend that Tudor Dixon get ballot access. She's still practically unknown across the board but she has been racking up endorsements from establishment types, including the DeVos family, whom endorsed her today.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig would have won the general easily. LOL

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1528887371869343745

This is hilarious and, I'd guess, unprecedented.

[Tekken_Guy]

Who will be the nominee? Dixon, Soldano, or Rinke?