The main takeaway from last night's results

[Chips]

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

[Huey Long is a Republican]

How can you say something so something yet so brave?

[Schiff for Senate]

The main takeaway is that voters aren't that polarized and that invoking Trump so much isn't a winning strategy, that Biden and the Democratic agenda are unpopular right now, that January 6 and the Big Lie aren't that important to Democratic voters, and that the midterms are going to be worse than we thought.

I know people are attributing VA to Youngkin being a great candidate and McAuliffe being weak, but in reality, while he did run a good campaign, Youngkin was hardly exceptional, and McAuliffe was good candidate too, given his experience and his being a mainstream, largely uncontroversial Democrat. To be fair, again, Youngkin ran a good campaign, and McAuliffe could have done better, so you can attribute about 2 points or so to that, but the main reason Youngkin one was because of the national environment and Democratic (un)popularity. Remember that Youngkin acted like a generic Republican but less Trumpish while McAuliffe tied himself heavily to the national Democratic, anti-Trump agenda. In other words, that strategy isn't effective, so Democrats need to find alternative strategies for 2022 and/or brace themselves for big losses.

[DS0816]

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

No.

If anything can happen…we would have experienced more election victories with candidates outside the two major U.S. political parties.

[Pollster]

The main (sane) takeaway is that the old rules still apply:

-The pendulum of power swings back and forth, and the best thing you can do is maximize your interests when the pendulum is in your favor.

-A popular candidate with a broadly appealing message is going to beat an unpopular candidate with a message that has limited appeal.

-Defining yourself in a broadly positive and inoffensive way/inoculating against likely attacks before your opponent can lay a finger on you is still the most likely way to guarantee victory, especially in a race where you are running against partisanship, the national environment, etc.