I honestly think that Obama would just run for re-election to the senate in 2010 to avoid a competitive primary with Pat Quinn. He’d still have a high national profile and would easily be the frontrunner for president in 2016. I imagine whoever Clinton picked for VP (Kaine, Vilsack, Richardson, etc) would not run in 2016 if Obama was plotting a bid as I would assume they would have the sense to know they couldn’t beat him.
Ugh, a gov-primary against Quinn wouldn't be competitive. Quinn wouldn't even be the incumbent because Blago was just removed from office as a result of Obama leaving the senate early. But even if Quinn is the incumbent gov here, it doesn't change much. He almost lost the (real) 2010 Dem primary against the State Comptroller. If he could only beat this dude by less than 1 pt (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Illinois_gubernatorial_election#Results), Obama would have won in a cakewalk.
It’s not so much that he would have lost but more that he wouldn’t want to make enemies in the Illinois political machine. It’s definitely possible he runs for governor or re/election to the senate though and his career trajectory would probably be the same either way.
