🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[Omega21]

The base is LOVING the decision, lol

Translation: Voters are pissed, and are saying they are exiting the party and not voting for the Union in the next election.

https://twitter.com/K_Moessbauer/status/1384487359429885952

Implied question as to why this is the case though, these things don't happen in a vacuum, so there is clearly some reason as to why Laschet landed in the position he has, with the support he has. Like he oveperformed in NRW in 2017, in the leadership race - it happens often enough that I don't think we should necessarily run around with the perception that he is just completely crap that seems to have mostly been developed post-hoc in the placing him head to head with Söder


February 2017: "the electorate loves Martin Schulz".

(and ftr, I would be very happy for Laschet to turn out to be a crap candidate who hands the chancellorship over to the Greens )

Might be a good idea to drop the german memes too / or at least translate them (admitting I've been guilty of the same in the past), as has been mentioned, most of the people reading this thread aren't going to be able to understand them.

It seems our interests are aligned, who would have thought

The CDU needs a painful electoral blow, and a subsequent Kurz-style rejuvenation and move to the right (not in AfD terms), so what Laschet did is a great opportunity for this to happen.

Anyway, care to make a prediction?

I have the CDU at ~ 26-27%.

[Lurker]

This is not apropos anything in particular, but I find it really remarkable that Merkel is the first chancellor to step down willingly.

Even Adenauer, at the age of 87 (!) and after 14 years as chancellor only stepped down after a lot of internal pressure. I wonder how long Merkel could have stayed in power had she so chosen.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

[Omega21]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

Well deserved!

The party needs 4 years in the opposition to renew itself, just like their Austrian counterparts did. (although Kurz didn't wait for it to get that low, though)

[SunSt0rm]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

CDU really deserve this for choosing Laschet

Hypothetically, what would Grune first preference be? Grune-Union (if Union still want lol), Grune-SPD-Linke or Grune-SPD-FDP?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

Impressive. But as a smart guy said yesterday: Demoskopie ist nicht Demokratie (polling results do not imply electoral success). Honestly, polls that are taken more than five months(!) may be helpful to advance a certain agenda. But apart from that, they border on meaninglessness. The example of Martin Schulz has been repeatedly mentioned.

Although I would definitely not be opposed to such a result.

By the way, the SPD should be more concerned than the CDU/CSU. 13% is devastating.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The example of Martin Schulz has been repeatedly mentioned.

And that killer argument nevertheless doesn't get any correcter.

Although I would definitely not be opposed to such a result.

Yes, everybody knows that you supported the weaker candidate for that purpose.

[Pick Up the Phone]

CDU really deserve this for choosing Laschet

Not choosing Laschet would have created complete chaos within the party. They would have had to look for a new party chairman. Better taking a hit in the polls right now - with more than five months to repair it.

I always find it astonishing to think that all the CDU board members who supported Laschet were just naive idiots. These people know how to do politics. And they know that all the debates and polls of April 2021 will be irrelevant in the (post-Covid?) environment of September 2021.

Hypothetically, what would Grune first preference be? Grune-Union (if Union still want lol), Grune-SPD-Linke or Grune-SPD-FDP?

Good question. Definitely not Grüne-SPD-Linke; too controversial, probably a very slim majority, and would harm the Greens in the long run. Grüne-SPD-FDP could be an attractive option if the FDP does not spoil it. Grüne-CDU/CSU would be the most interesting possibility - don't think that CDU/CSU would be too enthusiastic, however. 

So, my educated guess:

1 Grüne - SPD - FDP
2 Grüne - CDU/CSU
3 Grüne - SPD - LINKE

Note that this is about preferences only. The political reality always takes priority over them.

[Pick Up the Phone]

The example of Martin Schulz has been repeatedly mentioned.

And that killer argument nevertheless doesn't get any correcter.

The argument goes at follows: Polls five months out are meaningless. Public opinion is volatile. Polls taken in the aftermath of a nomination are meaningless x2.

The case of Schulz nicely illustrates all of the above.

Not particularly difficult to understand, is it?

Yes, everybody knows that you supported the weaker candidate for that purpose.

I never supported Laschet. In fact, I really don't care about him.

I just intervened when I saw these crazy takes that 'Söder is inevitable' when Laschet was always the favorite. And guess what? I was right.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

Baerbockmentum!

Well, it is Forsa which is known as the pollster with the most volatile results (and is sometimes suspected to cook the books a bit to forge or strengthen political narratives. And it's only a snapshot. We will see.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I just intervened when I saw these crazy takes that 'Söder is inevitable' when Laschet was always the favorite. And guess what? I was right.

I saw that you've been constantly trying to ridicule my statement, but perhaps you ought to have looked up the definition of "inevitable" before criticizing my "non-understandable prose", because my statement is nonetheless accurate.
It still would have been inevitable to nominate Söder in order for the CDU to win and gain as many seats as possible and thus win the election. But I obviously underestimated the stupidity and the Merkelization of the CDU.
See, if you have terminal cancer, it is inevitable to have chemotherapy performed - providing they want to keep on living -, but that doesn't stop some people from gobbling globules, especially if they live in Swabia or Berlin-Kreuzberg, vote Green, and attended a Rudolf Steiner school.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, I wonder whether that poll is an outlier. Definitely wouldn't bet on the Greens for an election five months out. They could end like Martin Schulz (polls often overestimate the party anyway). Laschet's speech today was actually pretty solid and a pitch for the political center. But, he has a lot of work to do and nominating a candidate against the base's will is problemtic at least.

However, if it was just Laschet vs. Baerbock, I'd prefer Laschet quite easily.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Has anybody else watched the ARD interview Farbe bekennen with Chancellor-to-never-be Laschet? The closing words were as follows:

"Am Tag, an dem die Union geklärt hat, dass Armin Laschet ihr Kanzlerkandidat wird. Um Himmels willen! ... heißt die nachfolgende Sendung."

They did that on purpose, didn't they? 😝 😂 🤣

[Former President tack50]

Why is there apparently such a big #NeverLaschet movement? Why is he so unpopular? (Especially comparednto Soder)

Scandals? Bad ideology?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384553165794811907

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Why is there apparently such a big #NeverLaschet movement? Why is he so unpopular? (Especially comparednto Soder)

Scandals? Bad ideology?

I think that isn't supposed to be aimed against Laschet himself, but rather against the CDU and their strikingly anti-democratic way of compromise finding.

Söder is a vigorous statesman, tall in size and exhibits incredible self-confidence, whereas Laschet, on the other hand, is a small clown who doesn't bite and who would get lost in the shuffle among all other G20 leaders.

https://twitter.com/Markus_Soeder/status/1222548016596471808?s=20

[President Johnson]

I actually wonder what happens if (big if, but still) these numbers last into early summer and show that the Union would surge with Söder? Maybe we could see a revolt to force Laschet out and replace him with Söder.

I wouldn't go as far as calling Laschet a clown; he's not a bad guy and certainly qualified to serve, but Söder more represents strong leadership to an electorate crying out for leadership in these times. I actually feel bad for Armin.

[Pick Up the Phone]

I saw that you've been constantly trying to ridicule my statement,

No need to ridicule something that is ridiculous in itself.

but perhaps you ought to have looked up the definition of "inevitable" before criticizing my "non-understandable prose", because my statement is nonetheless accurate.

No, it is not. And it wasn't a single statement. You've been vocally announcing Söder as the chosen one for weeks only to see him losing the decisive vote (to which he had previously agreed) in a landslide. 

Must be hard, I know. But you had it coming.

It still would have been inevitable to nominate Söder in order for the CDU to win and gain as many seats as possible and thus win the election.

Pure speculation at this point. And a pretty cheap excuse.

But I obviously underestimated the stupidity and the Merkelization of the CDU.

It seems to me that you underestimate a lot of things. This includes the damaging consequences that would have arisen had the CDU dumped its newly-elected party chairman in favor of a well-known and divisive opportunist without real intra-party support. You then also chose to underestimate the importance of being able to form alliances and organize majorities while grotesquely overestimating wholly irrelevant polls. Not my mistake.

See, if you have terminal cancer, it is inevitable to have chemotherapy performed - providing they want to keep on living -, but that doesn't stop some people from gobbling globules, especially if they live in Swabia or Berlin-Kreuzberg, vote Green, and attended a Rudolf Steiner school.

Haha, I was expecting some Antifa ramblings. Glad to see that you decided to put up the 'globules' straw man this time. Not that it makes anything you write less one-dimenionsal however. 

[Pick Up the Phone]

I think that isn't supposed to be aimed against Laschet himself, but rather against the CDU and their strikingly anti-democratic way of compromise finding.

Okay, let's do it step by step.

1. There is no formal procedure for selecting a nominee. There never was.
2. In both other parties, the nominee was selected internally and without consulting anyone outside the inner party circle. Which is how nominees are usually selected. Which is why no one cares about it.
3. As many CDU board members emphasized, it was generally agreed that the CDU chairman is the first to approach when selecting the nominee. If he declines, others can be asked. Söder obviously didn't care about this and just decided that he knows better than the CDU what the CDU needs.
5. Söder then finally agreed to let the CDU board decide - how strikingly 'anti-democratic' to have both candidates agreeing on a modus operandi! Söder further promised to respect this decision.
6. The CDU board was democratically elected in January in a fair and transparent process.
7. This board overwhelmingly supported Laschet, probably because they think in longer terms than just one election cycle. But perhaps they also saw Söder as the unreliable political gambler that he is.

8. But all of this is meaningless because... because... Söder led in some polls? Some random polls are more of a democratic instrument than the vote of the democratically legitimized party leadership?

It's completely beyond me how anyone could even consider this. The truth is: Söder is a loser who greatly overestimated his support. Laschet is a winner who put Söder in his place. Söder will not become Chancellor. Laschet could become Chancellor. Söder won in some polls. Laschet won a democratic vote. It really is as simple as that.

Söder is a vigorous statesman, tall in size and exhibits incredible self-confidence, whereas Laschet, on the other hand, is a small clown who doesn't bite and who would get lost in the shuffle among all other G20 leaders.

And you're still asking why people don't take you seriously?

[buritobr]

Maybe, this video describes the procedure to select CDU nominee

0:12-0:20: Söder
0:21: Laschet

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua_TZ84hmEA

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Has anybody else watched the ARD interview Farbe bekennen with Chancellor-to-never-be Laschet? The closing words were as follows:

"Am Tag, an dem die Union geklärt hat, dass Armin Laschet ihr Kanzlerkandidat wird. Um Himmels willen! ... heißt die nachfolgende Sendung."

They did that on purpose, didn't they? 😝 😂 🤣

🎖 I will now accept my accolades! 🎖

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to NDR Info there are numerous CDU members that have written to their Bundestag member that they are going to leave the party or already have. What a surprise!

Interesting development: After the CDU has constantly been losing members after their anti-democratic modus operandi of choosing their candidate, the CSU is being swamped with new online-membership requests, which have been offered countrywide since September 2020. Hundreds of requests have been received over the last days, and the party administration is behind with the processing of the requests
It should be noted that those online members don't own a full membership, but the online option is nonetheless fee-based, thus it does matter.

[President Johnson]

According to NDR Info there are numerous CDU members that have written to their Bundestag member that they are going to leave the party or already have. What a surprise!

Interesting development: After the CDU has constantly been losing members after their anti-democratic modus operandi of choosing their candidate, the CSU is being swamped with new online-membership requests, which have been offered countrywide since September 2020. Hundreds of requests have been received over the last days, and the party administration is behind with the processing of the requests
It should be noted that those online members don't own a full membership, but the online option is nonetheless fee-based, thus it does matter.

That's exactly the kind of stuff I expected from the "bajuwarischen Sonnenkönig" (only German posters will understand, a nickname my wife gave Söder). He won't leave it the jibes and PR stunts, and I expect him to do continue should Laschet become chancellor. Söder will definitely try to replace him. But never admit in public. You always have to read between the lines, even in his "concession speech" he said the "modernizers" wanted him, suggesting Laschet has an outdated mindset.

[President Johnson]

Aaaand... Söder is at it again. He gave an interview to Sueddeutsche, literally saying Laschet has the political mindset of the past who wants to be Helmut Kohl 2.0 while Söder himself stands for modernization. He further stated the CDU alone would bear responsibility for Laschet's candidacy and that any result below 30% would be unacceptable ("better aiming towards 35% he said).

He's certainly right with regard to the backroom nominating process. All that makes Laschet's standing much tougher and he better hope other topics will be in the public focus by summer. Otherwise, he's in real trouble. The CDU really shot themselves in the foot big time.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-04/kanzlerkandidatur-markus-soeder-armin-laschet-cdu-csu?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F