Greenland 2021 General Election; 6 April

[Diouf]

There will be an early general election in Greenland on 6 April 2021 after the government collapsed. Siumut, which leads the government, has been plagued by internal battles, and in November 2020 Prime Minister Kim Kielsen lost the leadership election in the party to Erik Jensen. Jensen has tried to negotiate with coalition partners Democrats and Nunatta Qitornai about a continuation of the government with him as PM. However, these negotiations failed, and 8 February the Democrats announced that they were leaving the government, and a few days after joined the other opposition parties in supporting a vote of no confidence. Yesterday, parliament opened after the winter break, and here it was clear there was a majority against the government, and a new election was called on 6 April, where local elections are already taking place.

[CumbrianLefty]

A smaller electorate than nearly all individual UK constituencies

Fascinating politics, though.

[Astatine]

Didn't Kim Kielsen lead like 6 formally different cabinets (+an interim one) in total, and 4 alone since the 2018 general elections?

[The Houstonian]

Is there a map of electoral districts in Greenland?

[Estrella]

Is there a map of electoral districts in Greenland?

There isn't because there aren't any. It's one nationwide constituency, open list PR with 2% threshold.

[Astatine]

Is there a map of electoral districts in Greenland?

There isn't because there aren't any. It's one nationwide constituency, open list PR with 2% threshold.

I think there is no official threshold but rather a "natural" one due to the D'Hondt seat allocation method (1/31 = 3.2 %). In 2002 the Feminist Party got 2.4 % of the votes but still failed to gain seats.
So about 950 votes are needed to get into Parliament.

[Estrella]

Is there a map of electoral districts in Greenland?

There isn't because there aren't any. It's one nationwide constituency, open list PR with 2% threshold.

I think there is no official threshold but rather a "natural" one due to the D'Hondt seat allocation method (1/31 = 3.2 %). In 2002 the Feminist Party got 2.4 % of the votes but still failed to gain seats.
So about 950 votes are needed to get into Parliament.

Ah, I see. I was just going off Wikipedia (but it could still be correct, just meaningless).

[Astatine]

Is there a map of electoral districts in Greenland?

There isn't because there aren't any. It's one nationwide constituency, open list PR with 2% threshold.

I think there is no official threshold but rather a "natural" one due to the D'Hondt seat allocation method (1/31 = 3.2 %). In 2002 the Feminist Party got 2.4 % of the votes but still failed to gain seats.
So about 950 votes are needed to get into Parliament.

Ah, I see. I was just going off Wikipedia (but it could still be correct, just meaningless).

Yeah, comparable to the "official" thresholds of 4 or 5 % in smaller EU states in EU Parliamentary elections, when D'Hondt is used and 6 or 8 seats are up in total.

[Diouf]

This is tonight. Polls are open 9.00-20.00 local time (13.00-24.00 CET).
Polling suggests IA will increase significantly from 25.8% in 2018 to more than 35% this time, while the traditional governing party Siumut is expected to lose a fair bit from the 27.4% they won in 2018. Some of those voters will probably be lost to Naleraq, led by ex-Siumut PM Hans Enoksen. Democrats are expected to lose votes, Atassut to hold the line while both Cooperation Party and Nunatta Qitornai is expected to dance around the threshold.
The battle in Siumut is still not over with former leader and PM Kim Kielsen saying that he could try to win back the leadership if he ends up with more personal votes than the new leader Erik Jensen.
Some of the increased support for IA could be due to their opposition to the Kuannersuit mine project, which a recent poll showed 71% opposed.

KNR is broadcasting here from 24.00: https://knr.gl/da/tv/livetv-knr2
Election results should come here: https://www.valg.gl/
Newspaper Sermitsiaq will also have live updates: https://sermitsiaq.ag/

[Velasco]

Actually this Greenlandic election is a referendum on the rare earth and uranium mining project in a site known as Kuannersuit or Kvanefjeld. Greenland Minerals, which is an Australian company invested by the Chinese giant Shenghe Resources, owns an exploration licence since 2010. The company says that Kusnnersuit has the potential to become in the largest producer of rare earth minerals in the Western World. Rare earth elements are of great geostrategic importance, as they are neccessary for the production of high-tech devices such as cell phones, computer hard drives,  hybrid or electric cars and flat screens, as well as wind turbines. The supporters of the mining project argue that it would help boosting local economy, creating new job opportunities and reducing the need of subsidies from Denmark. Currently the economy of Greenland relies on fishing exports and Denmark grants an annual subsidy amounting more than 500 million euros, which represrnts 1/3 of Greenland's budget. The mine would give a tax revenue of some 240 million euros. Dreams of full independence from Denmark pass through economic self-sufficiency, which could be achieved developing the vast mineral resources of the giant island, which is covered by a massive ice sheet and facing the effects of global heating. Greenland has devolved competences on mining resources since 2009. Opponents of the project fear the devastating effects of rare earth and uranium mininig in Greenland's pristine environment. They also argue this mine alone is not going to he enough to achieve self-sufficiency and the risks are too high. Kuannersuit is located near the township of Narsaq in SW Greenland, not far from the old Norse settlement of Dyrnes in one of the few areas in the island suited for pastures and sheep grazing. Narsaq is essentially an inuit fishing village.

[lilTommy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Greenlandic_general_election

- IA has won the election winning 37% and 12 seats.
- Siumut actually performed better then polling indicated, winning 30% and gaining 1 seat to 10.
- The Democrats were the real loser this election, losing 3 seats to just 3 and winning 9%.
- Naleraq held their standings, winning 4 seats but losing about 1% or so taking 12% of the vote. The big plus for them is that they are now the third party since the Democrats lost half their group
- Atassut also held their standings at 2 seats, but increased their vote by about 1% to 7%

[Estrella]

politicus still ocassionally posts on AAD, but seeing that she's not coming back here anytime soon, I've taken the liberty to copy some of her observations, excellent as always, and post them here*

Structurally it was a wash between the blocs/tendencies in Greenlandic politics:

"Siumut family" (Siumut, Naleraq, Nunatta Q.): 16 (nc)
Populists (Siumut family + Atassut): 18 (nc)
"Urban/educated", technocratic approach parties (IA, Democrats, Cooperation Party): 15 (nc)

So IA and the Democrats don't have a majority ruling out a 2009-13 redux and making IA's bargaining position much weaker, and IA's only options are an anti-uranium coalition with the unruly populists in Naleraq or a Grand Coalition with Siumut. There is a majority among the "populist" parties (Siumut, Naleraq and Atassut), but even if Siumut could bribe Naleraq to forget about uranium (or hold a referendum about it as Atassut wants) and enter one they likely won't try to because outgoing Premier and ex-chairman Kim Kielsen got more votes than the new leader Erik Jensen and the fight over who should lead the government would split the party. Must admit the result kinda suck, both IA/Naleraq and IA/Siumut will be very unstable

[re: a poll]

That's closer to the result than usual in Greenland and actually quite good given the circumstances (low turnout, difficulty of figuring out who had used postal votes and vote changes in the final week), for once not overestimating the IA vote.

A third of voters were undecided in the poll, and they clearly broke for Siumut (as usual..), while the Democrats and the Cooperation Party with their well-educated middle class voters who had already made up their mind, underperformed more with late deciders than the pollster had expected in their model. Naleraq probably genuinely lost support to Siumut in the final week of the campaign and it's clear some of their voters simply didn't show up, so you can't really blame the pollster for getting their numbers wrong - they may very well have been around 16% at the time the poll was conducted. HSA won't get any credit for this, but I think they deserve some. Greenland is tricky to poll and while you can more or less guesstimate that a lot of low educated undecideds are going to vote Siumut in the end you'll get other things wrong if you try weighing unskilled workers and retirees more. 

* in case she's lurking here: please don't send hitmen after me

[Velasco]

politicus still ocassionally posts on AAD
* in case she's lurking here: please don't send hitmen after me

Glad to see she is still hanging around. She has first hand knowledge of those remote lands, I believe

[Coldstream]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It's already been held, but here's the rundown:

PM Kim Kielsen was defeated in a leadership contest for the pro-independence Social Democratic Siumut party. However, they refused to step down as PM, causing the government to fall apart and new elections to be held.

The major issue this election, which also caused some of the government splits due to Kielsen's strong support of it, is mining. The Kvanefjeld deposit especially is an issue as the Chinese owned, Australian based company Greenland Minerals Limited is near to being cleared to mine it after planning over the past decade and a half. This is despite serious opposition from locals. It is unpopular in Greenland, with a survey showing 63% opposed to the project. [1]

As this is Greenland, it's hard to find info on the parties' stances on the mining issue since very few outside of the island's 56 thousand residents care.

The parties are: (English translations in parenthesis)
Siumut (Forward): Social Democratic, pro- gradual Independence, and split on the mining issue.
Inuit Ataqatigiit (Community of the People): Democratic Socialist, pro-Independence, very anti-mining.
Naleraq (Point of Orientation): Centrist-populist, pro-Independence.
Demokraatit (Democrats): Social Liberal, anti-Independence.
Atassut (Solidarity): Liberal-conservative, anti-Independence. Partnered with the Danish Liberals.
Nunatta Qitornai (Descendents of Our Land): Populist, pro-Independence.
Suleqatigiissitsisut (Cooperation): Economic Liberal, anti-Independence.

2021 Greenlandic general election - Results
Erinthecute, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Inuit Ataqatigiit
Siumut
Naleraq
Northeast Greenland National Park
Results by Municipality and City (Cities are in numbered circles, very, very few live outside of them.)

Resulting Parliament:

Inatsisartut 2021
User:AlSmith28, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Inuit Ataqatgiit: 37.42%, 12 seats (+4)
Siumut: 30.10%, 10 seats (+1)
Naleraq: 12.27%, 4 seats (+/- 0)
Demokraatit: 9.26% 3 seats (-3)
Atassut: 7.09%, 2 seats (+/- 0)
Nunatta Qitnorai: 2.41%, 0 seats (-1)
Suleqatigiissitsisut: 1.42%, 0 seats (-1)

Thoughts? How do you think the next government will look? Is Kvanefjeld dead because of IA's surge, or will the remaining parties support it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Greenlandic_general_election

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Always good to see some centrist party called the Democrats come in 4th place behind 3 parties to their left.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Always good to see some centrist party called the Democrats come in 4th place behind 3 parties to their left.

Bruh

[Tintrlvr]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

Since there's now a majority for independence without Siumut (who I understand have been more tepid in their pro-independence position than Inuit Ataqatigiit or Naleraq), I think for the first time, is it possible this election sets independence in motion?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

Since there's now a majority for independence without Siumut (who I understand have been more tepid in their pro-independence position than Inuit Ataqatigiit or Naleraq), I think for the first time, is it possible this election sets independence in motion?

IA are not particularly radical these days, for good reason... Have you seen the Greenlandic economy?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

Since there's now a majority for independence without Siumut (who I understand have been more tepid in their pro-independence position than Inuit Ataqatigiit or Naleraq), I think for the first time, is it possible this election sets independence in motion?

IA are not particularly radical these days, for good reason... Have you seen the Greenlandic economy?

Yeah, Siumut’s main argument for mining is to increase self reliance.

[ingemann]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

Indpendence is very popular but not really viable, so it's like the Brexit except the Greenlandic politician have just more common sense than the British ones, also if push came to shove, I'm not sure the population would vote in favor. Greenland is much more obvious dependent on Denmark, and while many Greenlanders are not happy with Copenhagen the alternative would be Washington paying the bills. 

[ingemann]

I always find it weird that Greenland’s major parties are pro-independence yet no moves towards independence ever seem to happen, unlike say Scotland or Catalonia. There also doesn’t seem to be much of a unionist movement in Greenland unlike the other two (unionists won 5/31 seats in this election).

Since there's now a majority for independence without Siumut (who I understand have been more tepid in their pro-independence position than Inuit Ataqatigiit or Naleraq), I think for the first time, is it possible this election sets independence in motion?

Not really, IA have been out and say they want close cooperation with Copenhagen, Trump was really good for the union.