Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Oryxslayer]

BBC Welsh results page for tomorrow: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cqwn14k92zwt/welsh-parliament-election-2021

[beesley]

Hearing Labour very confident in Rhondda, confident in Clwyd South and think they have just eked out Vale of Glamorgan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is that there is flatly 'no hope' for Wood. But we shall see.

[CumbrianLefty]

If that happens, might be worth recalling that just a few more votes for Plaid in Blaenau Gwent and Llanelli back in 2016 could well have meant she was still leader now. Politics can be a brutal business.

[Cassius]

Hearing Labour very confident in Rhondda, confident in Clwyd South and think they have just eked out Vale of Glamorgan.

The Great Huttdini. I mean if the Conservatives had been confident about the Vale Andrew RT would have run himself given that he lives there.

[beesley]

Con hold Montgomeryshire with 48%. Lib Dems drop to third - shockingly bad result.

[CumbrianLefty]

Con hold Montgomeryshire with 48%. Lib Dems drop to third - shockingly bad result.

Not much hope for the latter in B&R based on that.

[bore]

The implications are clear, for Starmer to win 2024 he simply needs to become PM before then.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC Report: Labour are confident in Rhonda, Bridgend okay for Labour and high turnout, Vale of Glam Tories are less enthusiastic, Aberconwy Tories are cheerful.  Recount in Vale of Clwyd.

[beesley]

Labour hold Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney with 61% - a decent result aided by UKIP tanking as expected.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Labour hold Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney with 61% - a decent result aided by UKIP tanking as expected.

UKIP have gone down 19 points; Lab up 14 and Tories 6. Very crudely - I stress - that means 75% of UKIP votes going red.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives Gain Vale of Clwyd by a squeeker. 10792 to 10426, with 2972 for Plaid.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Conservatives Gain Vale of Clwyd by a squeeker. 10792 to 10426, with 2972 for Plaid.

2.25 point swing away from Lab.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ann Jones might well have held on had she stood again.

[Oryxslayer]

Four declarations in the last hour.

Conservatives hold Aberconwy with a significantly increased majority.

Labour hold Delyn. Both Labour and the Conservatives gained from the UKIP and Lib-Dems vote. Conservatives net votes, but still a 14% majority.

Labour holds Wrexham. The big gainer on the topline. is Plaid from UKIP, with almost no change for the Tories and Labour.

Labour hold Caerphilly with a strong majority.

Labour are certainly en route to win reelection, given Wrexham and Delyn are Conservative nationally.

[Cassius]

Gonna go out on a limb and say Labour remain unchanged on 29 seats, with the Vale of Clwyd being exchanged for the Rhondda and that being it for changes.

Paul Davies’ majority cut substantially in Preseli Pembrokeshire, perhaps due to his involvement in that ridiculous farrago over drinking on the Senedd premises earlier this year.

[Oryxslayer]

Plaid up in Arfon at the expense of Labour.

Conservatives stagnant in Preseli Pembrokeshire and both Labour and Plaid up. Same story in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South.

Conservative swing in Clwyd South thanks to UKIP, but Labour also gains and holds the seat.

Labour increases their vote in Swansea East from UKIP.



Definitely looking like Labour will remain stagnant on the constituencies, losing the Vale of Clwyd and gaining Rhondda. Ceredigion and B&R offer potential opposition reorientations though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Plaid up in Arfon at the expense of Labour.

Labour had a strong candidate well known in Caernarfon and nearby villages last time who fought a very aggressive campaign. This time they ran a more typical paper candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives hold Clwyd West with a reduced majority from a Labour increase.

Conservatives way up in Alynn and Deeside, but Labour retains the lead similar to the rest of the NE corner.
 
Labour hold safe Islwyn.

Labour hold Gower and it wasn't even close. Tories marginally down and Labour up from.

Obvious PC hold in Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Blaenau Gwent and Neath are overwhelmingly held by Labour.

More southern Valley seats, including Bridgend have reported good Labour numbers. Monmouth is a unsurprising Conservative hold.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC suggests that Abolish may not get a seat on the lists.

[beesley]

BBC suggests that Abolish may not get a seat on the lists.

Great news.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

55/33 in the Rhondda, which is about what I'd guessed from the way it was being discussed earlier.

[Oryxslayer]

Ceredigion is a PC hold. Lib-Dems down 22%(!) benefiting all parties but mainly the PC's who now have a 40% majority. Further backsliding in the Celtic fringe, a similar result to the Cornwall and Shetlands numbers.

[Cassius]

BBC suggests that Abolish may not get a seat on the lists.

RIP my bold effort to swing the vote via a postal vote.

[Pilchard]

Lib Dems lose Brecon and Radnorshire to the Conservatives. Terrible results across the board for them, but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

Edit: looks like Abolish failed to get in on the North Wales list.