Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there's no reason to expect a poll done by one firm to conform exactly to polls done by another. One issue with Welsh elections of late - and a very irritating one - has been a lack of pollster diversity. A mixed polling environment is healthier.

I would also suggest that uniform swing to calculate the single member constituencies is not a very good idea, given the 'Wales County Council' aspect to these elections.

[Pilchard]

There was a debate the other night on ITV Wales between Mark Drakeford for Labour, Andrew RT Davies for the Tories and Adam Price for Plaid Cymru. I'd say all involved can point to a solid enough performance, but no real surprises except perhaps for Andrew RT Davies's love for Colin the Caterpillar. There's a write-up with clips here, or if like me you have trouble sleeping at night, the full hour is here.

[ElectionObserver]

Two polls out in the last couple of days which is great considering Wales doesn't get many polls.
The polls are both pretty good for Labour though they aren't exactly similar in numbers. It's not just Labour, but the massive difference in Conservative and Plaid Cymru's performance in each poll. Yougov is the only regular pollster of Wales and this is Opinium's first time. That's not to say which one is right or wrong though. In UK polls Yougov have been giving Labour lower numbers than other pollsters.


Yougov for ITV Wales/ Cardiff University (18/4-21/4)
          Constituency / Regional
Labour - 35% / 33%
Conservative - 24% / 22%
Plaid Cymru - 24% / 23%
Lib Dems - 3% / 4%
AWAP - 3% / 7%
Green - 3% / 5%
Others - 7% / 6%

Opinium for Sky News (9/4-19/4)
         Constituency / Regional
Labour - 40% / 38%
Conservative - 30% / 27%
Plaid Cymru - 19% / 19%
Lib Dems - 4% / 4%
AWAP - Crazily didn't ask so is in others.
Green - - / 5%
Others - 7% / 7%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the one was done after Andrew R.T. Davies's hilariously woeful debate performance so maybe that's a factor - no, it won't be, not enough people will have watched it. Though he will have looked bad on TV news clips?

[Blair]

Well the one was done after Andrew R.T. Davies's hilariously woeful debate performance so maybe that's a factor - no, it won't be, not enough people will have watched it. Though he will have looked bad on TV news clips?

Hardly a bit voting demographic but his interview managed to get on HIGNFY.

[ElectionObserver]

Well the one was done after Andrew R.T. Davies's hilariously woeful debate performance so maybe that's a factor - no, it won't be, not enough people will have watched it. Though he will have looked bad on TV news clips?

Hardly a bit voting demographic but his interview managed to get on HIGNFY.

They were hardly kind to him though. He was the butt of the joke and came across as a bit of an idiot.


Time is starting to run out for the campaigns now. For those who don't know, postal votes across Wales started to be posted out last Friday (16/4) and most people received them through the past week.  I'd guess that many have already been sent back.
I don't know the exact figures, but postal voters make up around a quarter of the electorate and will make up over a third of voters come election day.

[Blair]

Do we ever see postal vote sign up totals? I’m very curious- most politically engaged people I know have one but everyone else I’ve asked didn’t even consider it... despite the big push by councils.

In campaign news Welsh Labour seem to be re-using the Labours 2005 slogan of ‘if you value it, vote for it.’

[mileslunn]

Labour obviously will win this, but who would they turn to, to pass legislation?  Doesn't look like Labour + Liberal Democrats will be feasible although Labour + Plaid Cymru will be as well as Labour + Tories.  Labour and Tories have little in common so doubt they rely on them much.  I believe Plaid Cymru is left of centre like Labour, but is pro-independence so is that an issue or not?  Sorry not familiar with Welsh politics.  Understand British nationally but not Welsh or Scottish very well.

[Conservatopia]

Labour+Plaid seems most likely.  This coalition has happened before.  They could potentially bring in LD assuming LD actually get a seat.

There is also the tiny chance of Plaid propped up by Tories.  This nearly happened last time round (Plaid+Cons+UKIP).  I imagine Plaid would have to drop their demands for a referendum though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't think it was ever *seriously* considered last time round - for a start Leanne Wood being the PC leader then made it a total non starter. Post 2007 was when the (anti-Labour) "rainbow coalition" came close, but not close enough, to happening.

[ElectionObserver]

Labour obviously will win this, but who would they turn to, to pass legislation?  Doesn't look like Labour + Liberal Democrats will be feasible although Labour + Plaid Cymru will be as well as Labour + Tories.  Labour and Tories have little in common so doubt they rely on them much.  I believe Plaid Cymru is left of centre like Labour, but is pro-independence so is that an issue or not?  Sorry not familiar with Welsh politics.  Understand British nationally but not Welsh or Scottish very well.

The only possible outcomes from this election are:

Labour majority (unlikely).
Labour minority (likely).
Labour - Plaid Cymru coalition or confidence and supply (likely).
Labour - Lib Dem coalition or confidence and supply (unlikely).

Anyone who thinks anything else is delusional. Plaid Cymru as it is today will never go into an agreement with the Conservatives and there is absolutely no way Labour and Plaid Cymru combined have fewer than 30 seats. The Lib Dems are less likely because it's very possible they will not win any seats and if they do it will be one or two at most.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both Plaid and the Conservatives presently take a harder line on constitutional matters than they did in 2007. Co-operation between IWJ and Bourne was plausible, maybe even natural (even if it didn't happen in the end), but it's hard to imagine Price and Davies being the same room without them screaming at each other, let alone becoming partners.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

[beesley]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed. This obviously meant that Labour narrowly missed out on a majority - that is the effective purpose of the system because Labour hadn't earned enough votes to earn it.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

[beesley]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

Well no, in practical terms it does not help Labour compared to FPTP (but more than pure list PR), but the Holyrood comparison is correct - they are the same system after all. Hope that makes sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

Well no, in practical terms it does not help Labour compared to FPTP (but more than pure list PR), but the Holyrood comparison is correct - they are the same system after all. Hope that makes sense.

Thanks. It was helpful.

[afleitch]

An issue with the list system in Wales is that it's not strong enough to keep it 'proportionate'. Only 33% of it's seats are list compared to 43% in Scotland.

[Oryxslayer]

An issue with the list system in Wales is that it's not strong enough to keep it 'proportionate'. Only 33% of it's seats are list compared to 43% in Scotland.

Yes, and Welsh Labour has a geographic advantage in the constituencies. Its more apparent nationally - the Conservatives could have hypothetically won the 2019 welsh popular vote but Labour still would have 19 seats at worst - where Labour safely wins all the valleys but not by enough to pack their voters into the region. Throw in the fact that Conservative voter movement is concentrated in the north, and PC strength in the west, and you got a secure political system. The limited number of leveling seats preserves the geographic advantage when compared to Scotland.

[Pilchard]

The final YouGov and ComRes polls out today have broadly similar numbers (usual polling caveats apply):

Constituency

YouGov - Labour 36%, Conservative 29%, Plaid 20%, Reform 4%, Lib Dem 3%, Abolish 2%, Green 2%, Other 3%
ComRes - Labour 36%, Conservative 28%, Plaid 18%, Lib Dem 6%, Abolish 3%, Reform 3%, Other 6%

Regional

YouGov - Labour 31%, Conservative 25%, Plaid 21%, Abolish 7%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 4%, Reform 2%, Other 5%
ComRes - Labour 32%, Conservative 25%, Plaid 19%, Abolish 6%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 5%, Reform 3%, Other 6%

So if true Labour appear to be holding up well at around 2016 levels of support - Mark Drakeford has been quietly effective at defending his record in my opinion. Plaid seem to be stalling and the Tories are benefiting most from the scattering of the UKIP vote.

There was some amusement here in Newport over the weekend as some hoax 'election leaflets' were allegedly delivered promoting the 'Welsh Nude and Proud Party' for a better, more naked Newport. (contains some nudity, but nothing below the belt...) Of course no such party is standing (or even exists as far as I know).

[beesley]

Another personal prediction, again caveats covering myself in case it's completely wrong apply.

Labour: 27
Conservative: 18
Plaid: 12
Abolish: 2
LD: 1
None for Reform, Greens, UKIP or Propel

On both ballots I think Labour will hold up fairly well. Constituency wise I think they should hold most of their seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Personal prediction:
Labour: 29
Conservative: 16
Plaid: 13
Abolish: 1
LD: 1

[Conservatopia]

Prediction:

Labour 27
Conservatives 16
Plaid 13
Abolish 3
LolDems 1

Labour-Plaid formal coalition

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that zero seats for the LibDems is around a 50/50 possibility at least.

(which would be truly "historic" in several respects)

[ElectionObserver]

My prediction is
Labour on 27.
Conservative on 17.
Plaid Cymru on 12.
AWAP on 4.

The Lib Dems are close to 50/50, but I think they probably won't get a seat. Everyone else has no chance of winning anything.