UK 2015 General Election by English county

[Geoffrey Howe]

Here is the 2015 GE result by county in England (base map from Wikipedia). The Tories got 41% nationally; their best county was Surrey (58%), Labour's best was Merseyside (62%).


Scale: 30-35, 35-40, 40-45, 45-50, 50-55, 55-60, 60-65



_{Isle of Wight is coloured separately from Hampshire.}

[mileslunn]

Any chance of doing 2017 and 2019?  Those you can get data on wikipedia so quite easy.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Any chance of doing 2017 and 2019?  Those you can get data on wikipedia so quite easy.

I'll do them soon. 1997 is interesting too.

[H. Ross Peron]

1945 would be interesting as well.

[Continential]

Any chance of doing 2017 and 2019?  Those you can get data on wikipedia so quite easy.

I'll do them soon. 1997 is interesting too.

Is 1983 interesting and when was the last time the Liberals won a county?

[Logical]

Any chance of doing 2017 and 2019?  Those you can get data on wikipedia so quite easy.

I'll do them soon. 1997 is interesting too.

Is 1983 interesting and when was the last time the Liberals won a county?

2010. Cornwall and Somerset.

[beesley]

I'd be interested to see when East Sussex last voted Labour in total.

Great work as always.

[YL]

I'd be interested to see when East Sussex last voted Labour in total.

Never.  They didn't in 1997 or 2001, and had only ever won one seat in Sussex before 1997 (Brighton Kemptown in 1964 and 1966).

[beesley]

I'd be interested to see when East Sussex last voted Labour in total.

Never.  They didn't in 1997 or 2001, and had only ever won one seat in Sussex before 1997 (Brighton Kemptown in 1964 and 1966).

Thanks. Of course if they were getting the sort of majorities in Hove and Kemptown like they did in 2017 or 2019, that might've been easier. But I suppose Lewes and Eastbourne have the bigger share of the blame.

[YL]

So which other counties has Labour never carried?

Of course this is muddied by the changing definition of "county" (e.g. Labour has obviously never carried Surrey on its current boundaries but I assume things are different once you include large parts of London).  The map above uses the 1974 boundaries, which I resent for including H*mb*rs*d*, but I guess it's hard to use more up to date ones as Brigg & Goole crosses the East Riding/Lincs boundary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour just missed out on Hertfordshire in 1997 - did they ever manage it in earlier wins?

[EastAnglianLefty]

In 1997 Labour carried Norfolk, Suffolk and Bedfordshire. I don't think we've ever carried Cambridgeshire on the present lines (except possibly in 1945 if you count National Liberals as separate from Conservatives, which you really shouldn't by that point.) Essex would have been carried on the current lines in 1945 but not on any other occasion.

[icc]

Any chance of doing 2017 and 2019?  Those you can get data on wikipedia so quite easy.

I'll do them soon. 1997 is interesting too.

Is 1983 interesting and when was the last time the Liberals won a county?

2010. Cornwall and Somerset.

And also Northumberland, and the City of Bristol (though the latter is shown as a part of the now abolished Avon on the original map. That 'county' was the unit used by the Boundary Commission - same with Cleveland - but the boundaries didn't actually cross the City of Bristol boundaries)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There might be a case for trying to work out an electoral equivalent of Vice Counties* to allow for meaningful longer-term comparisons. You would still be left with some disruption in 1983 (and significant disruption in places) but it wouldn't be anywhere near as severe.

In 1997 Labour carried Norfolk, Suffolk and Bedfordshire. I don't think we've ever carried Cambridgeshire on the present lines (except possibly in 1945 if you count National Liberals as separate from Conservatives, which you really shouldn't by that point.) Essex would have been carried on the current lines in 1945 but not on any other occasion.

Labour also topped the poll in Shropshire in 1997, which was the only General Election of the Twentieth Century in which the Conservatives did not. As for Beds., Labour were ahead there in 2001 and 2005 as well.

_{*Simplified versions of the traditional counties that are used for recording environmental data.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour just missed out on Hertfordshire in 1997 - did they ever manage it in earlier wins?

Labour peaked in Herts. in the 60s and 70s, so those are the elections I'd start checking.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though they were never that close to getting St Albans in those days, so perhaps not.

[YL]

A quick check with the results on Wikipedia suggests the Tories carried Hertfordshire (including Barnet or not) in both 1966 and October 1974.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It would be good to stick with one map for several elections - I think it's nice to get a zoomed-out projection of the country, rather than the precise delineation of, say, the Bristol area. Large conurbations will probably cause more problems - for London we can go back to 1974 with this - but I was planning to do fairly recent ones next.

If someone could give a brief outline of how/when the counties change meaningfully enough, we can think of some solutions.

I'd be interested to see when East Sussex last voted Labour in total.

Never.  They didn't in 1997 or 2001, and had only ever won one seat in Sussex before 1997 (Brighton Kemptown in 1964 and 1966).

I've always found it striking how the Labour vote in many places drops precipitously in 2005, and then there's little shift in 2010 - although 2010 is the election we associate with swing voters abandoning Labour. Almost everyone who voted Conservative in 2010 did so in 2005.

[YL]

If someone could give a brief outline of how/when the counties change meaningfully enough, we can think of some solutions.

Well, the various creations of unitary authorities and the changes to ceremonial counties in the 1990s (including abolition of Avon, Cleveland and Humberside and restoration of Rutland and Herefordshire) aren't, for the most part, that important for this purpose as the last review mostly grouped unitary authorities with their parent county, continued to use Cleveland and the Humber area as groups and still treated Rutland with Leicestershire.  So I see why you used the 1974 map even though it has a couple of features I dislike...

The 1974 changes were implemented in the review which came into force in 1983.

There were a few changes in the 1960s, most obviously the creation of Greater London and the mergers of Huntingdonshire with the Soke of Peterborough and mini-Cambridgeshire with the Isle of Ely.  (The two resulting counties were then merged into modern Cambridgeshire in 1974, with Peterborough regaining independence as a unitary in the 1990s, though the boundaries aren't the same as the old Soke.)  There were also quite a few expansions and changes to county boroughs, some of which affected county boundaries.  These affected the constituency map from the review which came in for February 1974.

Several historic counties were split pre-1974 (or pre-1965): Yorkshire into the Ridings, Lincolnshire into the Parts, Suffolk and Sussex both into East and West, Northants into Northants "proper" and the Soke of Peterborough, Cambridgeshire into Cambridgeshire "proper" and the Isle of Ely.  But not all small pre-1974 counties were treated separately for Parliamentary purposes: the Soke of Peterborough was grouped with (the rest of) Northamptonshire, and Rutland was grouped with the Parts of Kesteven.

(That wasn't a "brief outline".  Sorry!)

[mileslunn]

I have one for 2005, 2010, and 2017 and can easily do 2019 later today.  Also if people are interested did a US style one where red for shires where Tories got over 50% and blue where not so opposite colours, but interesting nonetheless.  I can include that in another post if people are interested.







So Liberal Democrats won Somerset and Cornwall in 2005 and 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In a couple of places the constituency boundaries don't line up with the 'ceremonial county' boundaries - this was the case for Bristol and Gloucestershire in 2005 and for the East Riding and Lincolnshire in all of those elections. And for Teesside as well, come to think of it.

[YL]

In a couple of places the constituency boundaries don't line up with the 'ceremonial county' boundaries - this was the case for Bristol and Gloucestershire in 2005 and for the East Riding and Lincolnshire in all of those elections. And for Teesside as well, come to think of it.

Also Leicestershire/Rutland of course, and in 2005 actually also Gloucestershire and Somerset: the old Wansdyke seat included part of South Gloucestershire.  Oh, and also Herefordshire/Worcestershire in 2005, as part of Worcestershire was in the Leominster seat.  I presume that in all cases it's actually clear enough who carried the county.

And for the next set of boundaries there'll be much more of this...

[icc]

I have one for 2005, 2010, and 2017 and can easily do 2019 later today.  Also if people are interested did a US style one where red for shires where Tories got over 50% and blue where not so opposite colours, but interesting nonetheless.  I can include that in another post if people are interested.

So Liberal Democrats won Somerset and Cornwall in 2005 and 2010.

Northumberland should also be Lib Dem in 2010.

[mileslunn]

I have one for 2005, 2010, and 2017 and can easily do 2019 later today.  Also if people are interested did a US style one where red for shires where Tories got over 50% and blue where not so opposite colours, but interesting nonetheless.  I can include that in another post if people are interested.

So Liberal Democrats won Somerset and Cornwall in 2005 and 2010.

Northumberland should also be Lib Dem in 2010.

I have it Conservative as it includes Hexham, Blyth Valley, and Wansbeck where LibDems did poorly.  But was a close three way race.

[beesley]

I have one for 2005, 2010, and 2017 and can easily do 2019 later today.  Also if people are interested did a US style one where red for shires where Tories got over 50% and blue where not so opposite colours, but interesting nonetheless.  I can include that in another post if people are interested.

So Liberal Democrats won Somerset and Cornwall in 2005 and 2010.

Northumberland should also be Lib Dem in 2010.

I have it Conservative as it includes Hexham, Blyth Valley, and Wansbeck where LibDems did poorly.  But was a close three way race.

Lib Dems got 50818 votes across the four seats.
Labour came second with 48018.
Conservatives third with 46037.