AZ - OH Predictive Insights: Kelly is popular, Sinema underwater

[VAR]

March 8-12
690 registered voters
MoE: 3.7%

Kelly approval:
Approve 49%
Disapprove 38%

Sinema approval: 39/40 (-1)
Sinema approval among Democrats: 50/30 (+20)

Link

[UWS]

With 30 % of Democrats disapproving of Sinema, these are bad numbers for her. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NRSC gives huge efforts to recruit people like Doug Ducey to challenge Sinema in 2024, thus making this race at least a pure toss-up.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Arizona is more likely to flip than Georgia.

[wbrocks67]

I think Arizona is more likely to flip than Georgia.

Kelly's approval is +11 here

[prag_prog]

Kelly is at +20% with Indies whereas Sinema is at just +2% with Indies. She has better numbers with Rs but most of them aren't anyways going to vote for her. If whatever Sinema is doing is just for electoral purposes instead of ideological, then she definitely has misread the electorate

[AGA]

Skeptical Democrats will fall in line.

[tagimaucia]

Go figure-- supporting popular things and not supporting unpopular things is a much better strategy to win independents than just triangulating mindlessly for the sake of triangulating.

[SnowLabrador]

Go figure-- supporting popular things and not supporting unpopular things is a much better strategy to win independents than just triangulating mindlessly for the sake of triangulating.

That's why I think Hassan's digging her own grave by opposing the minimum wage increase.

[sting in the rafters]

I still cannot believe Sinema thought opposing a piece of legislation that has majority support from independents in her state was somehow going to help her electorally. Did she think she was evoking McCain voting no on the ACA repeal by voting no on raising the minimum wage? Is that really the surface-level analysis the Democratic Party engages in?

It makes sense for someone like Manchin/Tester to engage in the "bipartisanship" charade because they need it to win their states as well as to effectively act as the right frame on the Overton Window. If Ds pass $15 anyway and this was indeed all window dressing then it makes sense, however as it stands all it did was throw cold water on their base in a crucial state.

[President Johnson]

Sinema thought she'd remain competitive or favored by acting like Joe Manchin or even to his right. But Arizona is not West Virginia, and even the 2020s Arizona is not 2012 Arizona. Kelly on the other hand seems to be very representative for his state as a moderate Democrat who's a reliable vote on popular legislation and seem to be open for filibuster reform/removal. Voters don't care about the filibuster, they want results and a higher minimum wage.

[GALeftist]

We're approaching levels of maverick which shouldn't even be possible.

[If my soul was made of stone]

We're approaching levels of maverick which shouldn't even be possible.

The final boss of maverick-ism is to become loathed by everyone in equal measure, and honestly she seems headed that way.

[Pericles]

It is also interesting how Sinema and Kelly do with Independents and Republicans. Sinema is at 36% with Independents, while Kelly is at 49%. This suggests that she hasn't made herself more electable with her antics. However, Sinema is at 32% with Republicans while Kelly is at 20% with them. This might encourage her to think she can get crossover in 2024. I doubt her Republican support would be strong enough for them to actually vote for her. On the other hand, if all the Democrats just vote for her anyway as the lesser evil, and she gets a small slice of Republicans, Arizona is so close that it could be decisive. On the other hand, a failed Democratic legislative agenda and HR1 not passing might be worse electorally for her than the benefit of any crossover she gets. If she gets to appear moderate while managing to still help pass HR1 and other bills, maybe that will help her though.

[Person Man]

This is why we don’t have any centrists.

[Xing]

While Kelly is undeniably vulnerable, I would much rather he survive than Sinema. While this poll shouldn't be taken at face value, and I don't think Arizona "hates centrists", the narrative about how Arizona would only ever vote for a centrist Democrat and wouldn't even be competitive with a more left-wing Democrat doesn't seem to hold much water.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great poll, for Kelly.

Sinema isn't the problem, Manchin is the one DOA in WVA in 2024, Latinos are gonna vote for Sinema again, we need WC females like Hassan and Sinema

[OneJ]

It's even more astounding once you realize that she was actually one of the most popular Senators in the entire nation.

Now she's less popular among independents, the actual voters she needs to be targeting, than her more liberal-voting colleague (despite her relative popularity among Republicans who won't vote for her) and Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

The problem for Republicans is that all those Democrats who ostensibly 'disapprove' of Sinema will fall in line in the end, whereas she’s likely to hold a non-negligible share of those Republicans who approve of her with her meaningless posturing/performance art — and in AZ, even a small overperformance among the latter group would be sufficient for a Democrat to win at this point. For that reason alone (and the fact that she’s only up for reelection in 2024), this poll is a lot better for her than the topline would indicate, and Sinema’s obviously aware of this calculation, so her stunts aren’t as unwise as people make them out to be.

Kelly's fate is tied to Biden's, who’s doing relatively well for now with his administration's carefully projected focus on COVID/vaccines/economic recovery and the trifecta not having passed any too controversial legislation yet. However, we all know that that 'yet' is on life support, so in spite of what those numbers of may suggest, I’d certainly argue that he’s in a worse position for reelection than Sinema based on the mere fundamentals of the state/election (that doesn’t mean that he can’t win, but I’d rate AZ-SEN 2022 Tossup and AZ-SEN 2024 Lean D). I certainly don’t view him as significantly less vulnerable than someone like Maggie Hassan, even if NH swings more to the right than AZ under Biden (an assumption that I agree with).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

So much for being as moderate as you can get, so you can piss of a lot of Democrats while still not appealing to the cultists.

[UncleSam]

I do think people are underestimating the potential for Sienna to get some crossover support. Collins still got some in 2020 after all - if you’re at 32% with Rs at least some of those people will vote for you. The 15-20% range is more of the ‘mirage’ range.

Still, Kelly seems to be in a stronger position either way.

[MT Treasurer]

The problem for Republicans is that all those Democrats who ostensibly 'disapprove' of Sinema will fall in line in the end, whereas she’s likely to hold a non-negligible share of those Republicans who approve of her with her meaningless posturing/performance art — and in AZ, even a small overperformance among the latter group would be sufficient for a Democrat to win at this point. For that reason alone (and the fact that she’s only up for reelection in 2024), this poll is a lot better for her than the topline would indicate, and Sinema’s obviously aware of this calculation, so her stunts aren’t as unwise as people make them out to be.

Case in point:

Washington, D.C. – In what has become his go-to political move, Mark Kelly is still avoiding answering questions about the filibuster. Unlike Senator Sinema who has been vocal in her opposition to ending the legislative filibuster and ramming through a radical liberal agenda, Mark Kelly is trying to go as long as he can without giving a straight answer. Still studying, perhaps?

https://nrsc.org/press-releases/another-mark-kelly-filibuster-dodge-2021-04-02/

[GALeftist]

The problem for Republicans is that all those Democrats who ostensibly 'disapprove' of Sinema will fall in line in the end, whereas she’s likely to hold a non-negligible share of those Republicans who approve of her with her meaningless posturing/performance art — and in AZ, even a small overperformance among the latter group would be sufficient for a Democrat to win at this point. For that reason alone (and the fact that she’s only up for reelection in 2024), this poll is a lot better for her than the topline would indicate, and Sinema’s obviously aware of this calculation, so her stunts aren’t as unwise as people make them out to be.

Case in point:

Washington, D.C. – In what has become his go-to political move, Mark Kelly is still avoiding answering questions about the filibuster. Unlike Senator Sinema who has been vocal in her opposition to ending the legislative filibuster and ramming through a radical liberal agenda, Mark Kelly is trying to go as long as he can without giving a straight answer. Still studying, perhaps?

https://nrsc.org/press-releases/another-mark-kelly-filibuster-dodge-2021-04-02/

You'd think there was a standing rule in the NRSC saying they need to shoot themselves in the foot as much as possible by constantly positively referencing Sinema or Manchin (or, even worse, Tester)

[Chips]

This seems to have good implications for Kelly in 2022. But I still think the race will be a pure toss-up. Kelly will survive in a good Democratic year and will most likely be defeated in a good GOP year.

Sinema could pull it out but this poll doesn't have great implications for her in 2024. Again though, I think the Sinema race will be a pure toss-up at this stage. If it's a good Democratic year she'll likely survive, If it's a good GOP year than she (along with a range of other Democrats) will go down in defeat.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The problem for Republicans is that all those Democrats who ostensibly 'disapprove' of Sinema will fall in line in the end, whereas she’s likely to hold a non-negligible share of those Republicans who approve of her with her meaningless posturing/performance art — and in AZ, even a small overperformance among the latter group would be sufficient for a Democrat to win at this point. For that reason alone (and the fact that she’s only up for reelection in 2024), this poll is a lot better for her than the topline would indicate, and Sinema’s obviously aware of this calculation, so her stunts aren’t as unwise as people make them out to be.

The fundamentals of 2024 are better than 2022 for AZ Democrats, but Kelly is doing markedly better among independents as well as Democrats. In order for your post to be correct, polarisation would need to drive Democrats into Sinema's camp at a greater rate than the one at which it will drive approving Republicans into her opponent's. Why do you assume this will be the case?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kelly is gonna win because the only person that could have beaten him is Ducey and Ducey likes Kelly and Ducey was CENSURED by AZ Rs