Will Islamism cease to be a threat?

[ingemann]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

[ingemann]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.

I think you overestimate the stability of Turkey.

[ingemann]

Will Islamism ever stop being a threat??? I’m not talking about Islam, I am talking mostly about Salafi Jihadism, an ideology that is obviously genocidal and created refugees in the millions.

I love how this definition of "Islamism" excludes the Islamic Republic of Iran, which most fearmongerers about Islamic fundamentalism would (laughably) point to as threat #1.

And the answer is embedded right there. With the Middle East turning into a Saudi vs Iranian battle for domination of the region, the jihadi types are mostly agitated about fighting Iran and its proxies (Assad, the Houthis in Yemen, etc), not "the West."

Honestly the only country in the Western World where Iran is seen as part of the threat from Islamism is USA, pretty much everyone else recognize that the vast majority of Islamic terrorism is funded by our good allies in the Persian Gulf.