OR - DHM Research: Kate Brown deeply unpopular (-19)

[VAR]

March 7-14
600 adults
MoE: 4%

Changes with the September 2020 poll.

Opinion of Kate Brown
Unfavorable 57% (+6)
Favorable 38% (-5)

Biden approval: 53/40 (+13)

https://www.dhmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/DHM-Panel_data-release-1-March-2021.pdf

She’s term-limited though.

[Astatine]

March 7-14
600 adults
MoE: 4%

Changes with the September 2020 poll.

Opinion of Kate Brown
Unfavorable 57% (+6)
Favorable 38% (-5)

Biden approval: 53/40 (+13)

https://www.dhmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/DHM-Panel_data-release-1-March-2021.pdf

She’s term-limited though.

Biden approval nationwide: +14
Biden approval in Oregon: +13

Oregon is a swing state at heart and once Biden's approval numbers are about even, Republicans can absolutely win it, as predicted by Fivey Fox.

Q.E.D.

[SnowLabrador]

Why is she so unpopular? She's one of the most progressive Governors in the country, in a pretty blue state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why is she so unpopular? She's one of the most progressive Governors in the country, in a pretty blue state.

It's Oregon

[I’m not Stu]

Won't Republicans nominate a firebrand Tea Party candidate?

[Progressive Pessimist]

She'll still probably win re-election. Oregon is to the left of my state now!

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Crosstabs are interesting, especially on key issues and COVID-19. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Biden's lower favorables among 18-29 and in Metro Portland are because people somehow think he's too far to the right. Although that wouldn't explain some of the differences between 18-29 and 30-44 on policing-related issues.

Also lol @ "Most reasonable partisan makeup after the new district lines are drawn and elections held"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

She'll still probably win re-election. Oregon is to the left of my state now!

She won’t because, as stated upthread, she is ineligible to run.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If only we elected Knute

[Progressive Pessimist]

She'll still probably win re-election. Oregon is to the left of my state now!

She won’t because, as stated upthread, she is ineligible to run.

I forgot how that worked with her taking over for Kitzhaber. my point remains though, just replace her with whomever the Democratic candidate ends up being.

[Calthrina950]

Why is she so unpopular? She's one of the most progressive Governors in the country, in a pretty blue state.

Oregon still has a sizable Republican base (~40% of the electorate), and they absolutely despise Brown for precisely this reason.

[Frenchrepublican]

Really bad numbers for Brown considering how blue this state is... now the fact that Biden's approval is only at +13 would suggest that the sample is simply too republican friendly.

[President Johnson]

If only we elected Knute

I knew you would love this poll

Knute might be the type of Republican I could support over a poor Democratic candidate. But seems like he's done with running as Wikipedia lists him as "declined". Hope Democrats nominate a good candidate.

[kwabbit]

Probably gonna be another fairly close gubernatorial election in 2022. Has Dem fatigue reached its limits, where every Dem governor is unpopular, but the Dem still wins anyway, or has it reached the point where an R could actually win in a Biden midterm. I mean Brown underperformed the national house vote in 2018, so an R win could definitely happen, but there have just been so many 5ish point Dem wins that maybe that's just where the state is gonna be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's just because the Ds is the party holding WH in a Pandemic, it's OR and if Inslee didn't run again for Gov in WA, it was endangered too

[Suburbia]

Alek Skarlatos or a good ORGOPer could win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt Rs win OR

[smoltchanov]

Why is she so unpopular? She's one of the most progressive Governors in the country, in a pretty blue state.

Not every Democrat is a "firebrand progressive". Plus - for such blue state she always won governorship by relatively small margin, so - personality factor may be in play too. But - Republican party of Oregon (party of Mark Hatfield, and. in the past, of Wayne Morse) moved sharply to the right since about 2000, and, usually, nomunates far-right idiots as it's candidates. That's her best chance...

[Sir Mohamed]

Why is she so unpopular? She's one of the most progressive Governors in the country, in a pretty blue state.

Not every Democrat is a "firebrand progressive". Plus - for such blue state she always won governorship by relatively small margin, so - personality factor may be in play too. But - Republican party of Oregon (party of Mark Hatfield, and. in the past, of Wayne Morse) moved sharply to the right since about 2000, and, usually, nomunates far-right idiots as it's candidates. That's her best chance...

Also seems like OR is less blue in statewide races. It elected a GOP SoS in 2016 and gubernatorial elections from 2002 to 2014 were relatively close as well. In 3 of them, the Dem winner even failed at winning a majority of the vote. Appears like there is a 49% D-freiwall in gov races.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

March 7-14
600 adults
MoE: 4%

Changes with the September 2020 poll.

Opinion of Kate Brown
Unfavorable 57% (+6)
Favorable 38% (-5)

Biden approval: 53/40 (+13)

https://www.dhmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/DHM-Panel_data-release-1-March-2021.pdf

She’s term-limited though.

Biden approval nationwide: +14
Biden approval in Oregon: +13

Oregon is a swing state at heart and once Biden's approval numbers are about even, Republicans can absolutely win it, as predicted by Fivey Fox.

Q.E.D.

I think Oregon is pretty much a polarized state with few swing voters. It still has a large conservative population, esp. given the GOP often nominates strong conservatives and not moderates there.

If Biden improves with some lean R / lean Trump folks because of some sympathy boost, it might've not changed a lot in Oregon. But yes you have a point.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Probably gonna be another fairly close gubernatorial election in 2022. Has Dem fatigue reached its limits, where every Dem governor is unpopular, but the Dem still wins anyway, or has it reached the point where an R could actually win in a Biden midterm. I mean Brown underperformed the national house vote in 2018, so an R win could definitely happen, but there have just been so many 5ish point Dem wins that maybe that's just where the state is gonna be.

Only a Scott Brown / Charlie Baker / Chris Sununu / Phil Scott kind of person could win here I believe, and even than it's an uphill battle since they won't have universal name recognition or a united GOP since OR does have a strong traditional conservative GOP brand.

[Chips]

In a GOP wave year, This could potentially be a GOP upset as it almost was in 2010 but in a neutral year, Likely D.

[Meatball Ron]

If only we elected Knute

I knew you would love this poll

Knute might be the type of Republican I could support over a poor Democratic candidate. But seems like he's done with running as Wikipedia lists him as "declined". Hope Democrats nominate a good candidate.

He actually left the GOP earlier this year.

[smoltchanov]

Probably gonna be another fairly close gubernatorial election in 2022. Has Dem fatigue reached its limits, where every Dem governor is unpopular, but the Dem still wins anyway, or has it reached the point where an R could actually win in a Biden midterm. I mean Brown underperformed the national house vote in 2018, so an R win could definitely happen, but there have just been so many 5ish point Dem wins that maybe that's just where the state is gonna be.

Only a Scott Brown / Charlie Baker / Chris Sununu / Phil Scott kind of person could win here I believe, and even than it's an uphill battle since they won't have universal name recognition or a united GOP since OR does have a strong traditional conservative GOP brand.

Yeah, and the same is true for some other states (Washington, Maryland, and so on). But i fear Trumpist infection went too deep into Republican party body and became incurable..

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The thing is many people disapprove the GOP far more than they'll disapprove their own governor from their own party, and most people aren't engaged enough to vote in a primary to vote for the opponent. That's why unpopular candidates sometimes get a free pass, esp. in such polarized times as these.

I'm however not sure why she has so much disapproval. What did she do?