Could you ever see Delaware voting Republican?
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  Could you ever see Delaware voting Republican?
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Author Topic: Could you ever see Delaware voting Republican?  (Read 763 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: March 18, 2021, 04:43:53 PM »

In a presidential or senate election?
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Fwillb21
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2021, 08:37:53 PM »

It’s definitely a hard call.

As a resident of the state, I can attest to the fact that a lot of retirees are moving here from other states due to manageable cost-of-living. If this growth continues, I could potentially see an R trend in the state as many of that age group lean to the right.

We also have a significantly large African-American population, which has also been trending a little bit to the right lately.

With regard to one of the biggest Democratic trending demographics, college-educated whites, I sent her a lot more of them in neighboring states (although there are some of this demographic in some of the affluent outskirts of Wilmington).

When all is said and done, it’s possible that the state may experience a Republican trend, but perhaps not enough to make it flip anytime in the near future.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2021, 08:38:24 PM »

Eventually, sure. As I've said, coalitions and parties change. One day, they will do so to the point where Delaware can vote Republican. Perhaps by 2032 or 2036?
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Nightcore Nationalist
Okthisisnotepic.
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« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2021, 05:03:49 PM »

It's one of the most likely of the firmly Safe D states to become competitive in the next decade or two.  Hillary only won it by 11-12 points in 2016.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2021, 05:21:24 PM »

I mused in a prior thread on this topic:

Delaware has enough of a Black population (one of the top 10 by proportion in the country, actually) and bougie suburbanites to keep it at least decently in the Dem column even if much of the WWC bleeding continues, especially since its state Democratic party is very neoliberal and pro-business (as president, Joe Biden now appears significantly to the left of your average Delaware Democrat; look at Tom Carper as a typical example).

Margins for Dems are at times a bit close for comfort there, but the quirks of the state party and the high Democratic floor in the state are a fair bit to overcome. Maybe it could return to a prior state of downballot wonkiness (it had a Republican Treasurer from 1989 to 2019, for instance, and the governor's chair once favored Republicans), but it would take some more serious realignment for it to become federally competitive like it was in the latter half of the 20th century.

Or who knows, maybe the Independent Party of Delaware will become a relevant political force.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2021, 11:16:30 PM »

As others have state, New Castle county is basically like a Philly burbs county with an urban core packed onto it as well and thus it is very difficult to get to a point where the state could flip barring some shift with educated suburbanite voters back towards the GOP in anything approach substantial numbers as such.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2021, 01:51:29 PM »

In the future possibly but we are talking like post 2028.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2021, 08:08:23 PM »

Sure in more than 10 years, well past the Biden years maybe..

But I doubt it. It's could be the Democrats equivalent to South Carolina
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SAAuthCapitalist
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2021, 02:17:03 PM »

Not really anytime soon. But more so than Oregon or New Jersey
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