UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[morgieb]

In an AV world this certainly would be one to watch, as it is though I think the base Conservative vote would be too high to overcome especially given that Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens will likely split the anti-Conservative vote.

[morgieb]

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this

Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.

[morgieb]

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this

Nominating Cox's sister was the right move for Labour here. B&S seems to be a better fit for Labour's current coalition than Hartlepool too. I'd be surprised if Labour lose here. If they go then Starmer is done.

Who replace him that case any leavers???

A pure leaver I think would be unlikely. More likely is someone with a more "nuanced" position ala Nandy. But I struggle to see Rayner not winning the nomination if Starmer's leadership proves untenable.

[morgieb]

Not even close. Ouch.

[morgieb]

Not even close.

This is a seat the Tories should never have dreamed of losing. To say the result is catastrophic is an understatement.

[morgieb]

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

[morgieb]

It is funny seeing the new Wakefield Yorkshire Party guy in voteuk interact with regulars.

I'm not sure if you know this, but the Tory candidate in Wakefield in 2017 is an ex-VoteUK member.

And according to Al was a massive POS.

[morgieb]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

To resign or not to resign, that is the question.

[morgieb]

This was probably explained here, but I didn't find it, what is ULEZ?

Ultra Low Emissions Zone. Basically means that to drive certain older cars you need to pay a fee of £12.50 per day. This policy has been around for a few years in central London, but now it’s extending to the more suburban bits of London too. This is unpopular amongst suburbanites, especially as the need for a less environmentally friendly car is more prevalent there.

[morgieb]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

Uxbridge was more down to ULEZ/Sadiq backlash I thought?

[morgieb]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

Especially insane stat from a Parliament that also includes Hartlepool and the Batley near-disaster.

To think Starmer was inches away from having to resign.

Now he might win by more than 1997.