UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[bore]

There isn't a quick fix or one weird trick that will make everything ok again, but I can't help thinking that a big part of it is that the tories are able to run against their own incompetence, that the media let them get away with projecting that they're a new government every time they change leader and not a party that's been in power since 2010.

The electorate does not pay much attention to politics outsides elections, and this is doubly true if you're the opposition and the other party have an 80 seat majority, so to have a hope of anything cutting through you have to a disciplined message which you repeat over and over, and not picking one thing (like statutory sick pay) has probably been the biggest failing of the leadership so far. The election is still 3 years off though, there's still time, and a good start would be making every member of the shadow cabinet crowbar the phrase '11 years of tory government' into every interview they do.

[bore]

Nuts when you think about it.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1390590110052323331

Or is there maybe some actual correlation? "They (Labour) went down to Westminster and did nothing for us" is a refrain first heard in Scotland, then the North, again and again.

But not, at least, in wales today, where labour actually are in a position to do something.

[bore]

Its a good pull quote, but the most common reason turns out to mean 14% of voters...

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1390729101732982788

[bore]

This is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

[bore]

Serious point here: to the extent this result means something it is that it is not consistent with Boris Johnson and the Conservative party actually being popular. They had a lot of supporters in 2019 and have a lot now who would happily ditch them if the opposition parties could make the right noises.