UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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  UK By-elections thread, 2021- (search mode)
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« on: June 17, 2021, 09:45:23 PM »

lmao

I suppose we've been overdue this sort of classic Liberal by-election upset and, as noted above, there were some excellent local issues to work with. Presumably there will be some frothing and indignation on the government backbenches which may or may not have consequences.

Did it really boil down to "NIMBYism" or is there subtler stuff going on locally in Buckinghamshire as well? I wasn't really following this one until seeing the (hilarious) result.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2021, 05:19:56 PM »

I've had it up to here with people calling south Buckinghamshire "progressive." The Guardian recently alluded to it being "bourgeois bohemian."
Somewhere doesn't vote over 50% Tory in 2001 if it's progressive!


"bourgeois bohemian" is beyond parody and hilariously ridiculous.

TIL the [checks notes] Chiltern Hills are basically just northern Brooklyn with quainter architecture. If the Grauniad frames it that way, it must be true!
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2021, 11:26:25 PM »

You love to see it.

Galloway--regrettably--really didn't do that badly in the grand scheme of things.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2021, 11:58:11 PM »

I see this is some people's first time experiencing the perennial oddball that is George Galloway.

I greatly admired Galloway in the mid-2000s as someone who, like most left-of-center Americans my age, cut my political teeth on opposing the Iraq War and the religiously-inflected jingoism that went along with it. Of course, I was twelve at the time.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2021, 12:07:19 AM »

323 vote margin. Lol, Starmer already fêteing himself for barely holding on here. Rayner should run, it's time for this assclown to go.

These things are an expectations game. Labour barely holding a seat like this is objectively a travesty, but considering that it's the first seriously contested by-election this Parliament where the incumbent party hasn't been unceremoniously turfed out on a massive swing, it starts to look a lot like the shiniest turd.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2021, 12:30:18 AM »

Is it possible that Labour was second on both the Batley and Spen Valley side of the constituency yet still ahead overall?

Certainly. Though it's slightly more complex than just Batley vs. Spen even if that works as a quick summary: Birstall, though a separate town and generally good territory for the Conservatives, was in Batley MB before the local government deforms of the 1970s while Heckmondwike (a town with remarkably cursed politics: multiple BNP councillors over the years and serious Biradari influence) is in the Spen Valley. It was suggested overnight that Heckmondwike may have been Galloway's strongest part of the constituency, which would certainly be on brand.

Did Galloway's campaign appeal to both BNPish and Biradariish currents, or does it just seem "aesthetically" like the sort of campaign that might have? It's hard as a foreign armchair observer to tell to what extent he was running as a Muslim sectional candidate and to what extent he was running as a general-interest turbo#populist Purple heart maniac.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2021, 12:30:31 PM »

An astounding variety of headlines over the past two days, from the Torygraph stressing the narrowness of the Labour win to the Grauniad presenting it as a resounding upset. Moar liek Banter and Spin amirite?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2021, 11:52:33 PM »

It's always so funny to me what high-tension and high-stakes affairs British by-elections are, even if the stakes mostly tend to evaporate by the next GE. Most House special elections in the US are snoozers unless the seat was competitive to begin with (a few special cases like Conor Lamb aside), whereas with British by-elections there are constant wild swings, hilarious interpersonal drama and meme-tier campaigning chops, and often, because of the lack of residency requirements, the same revolving door of wackos eccentrics running for various minor parties over and over again up and down the island. The process is always comedy gold even when the actual result doesn't change much about the UK's political landscape.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2021, 10:35:28 AM »

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Dairying (and pomological and viticultural) communities in the US tend to vote to the left of big cereal grain/legume agriculture communities and WAY to the left of ranching communities. Is that not the case in England?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2023, 08:47:53 PM »

Why didn't Khan, an outspoken and controversial big-city mayor, simply find a bunch of undead Blitz victims to "vote for" Labour?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2023, 08:54:03 PM »

The year's at the spring
And day's at the morn;
Morning's at seven;
The hill-side's dew-pearled;
The lark's on the wing;
The snail's on the thorn:
The Lib Dems hold a rural seat in the West Country—
All's right with the world!
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2023, 10:04:29 PM »

Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)
Can we please just ban him?

Clever.

Majorities of 20k and 19k are normally flipped, right?

In by-elections, early in the fourteenth year of a widely and increasingly loathed government? Yes, they are.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2023, 10:12:33 PM »

I'd have more to say if I were less stressed about unrelated things, but: NUT. We're so back.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2024, 12:22:46 AM »

Another Guardian article on Wellingborough: Labour are "not complacent", though if you were hoping for a Tory hold you'd struggle to find cause for optimism in the article.

Quote
Some might argue that Harrison’s campaign is failing even on basic optics: anyone visiting her Wellingborough HQ, hastily repurposed from Bone’s constituency office, is greeted by an abandoned car dumped directly outside, its tyres flat and interior filled with rubbish.




You almost want to pity the Tories, but schadenfreude is far more tempting.

This photo is aesthetically quite similar to how I'm told points north of St. Albans tended to look after eleven and a half years of the Milk Snatcher, so what goes around comes around.
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