UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[mileslunn]

I think Tories favoured in Hartlepool but lets remember most polls predicted Brexit party would take Peterborough and Labour held it (lost Tories in general election).  Still would be a blow to Keir Starmer showing still trouble in Red Wall.  Nonetheless Boris has received a strong bounce due to successful vaccine roll out so in some ways is probably at high water mark.  Labour has a long way to go before returning to office but how recovery and Brexit goes is probably going to decide 2024 so polls right now are largely meaningless for next election.  

That being said both parties have advantages and disadvantages

Tory advantage: They have far more safe seats than Labour and pretty much have 250 seats in the bag without doing anything while Labour has only around 150-160 in the bag so strong head start.

Labour advantage: Labour doesn't need to win most seats, just ensure Tories + Unionist parties have less than half the seats as SNP and Liberal Democrats have already ruled out propping up Tories.

Tory disadvantage: Will have been in power for 14 years and generally most parties when in office that long face voter fatigue and desire for change stronger.

Labour disadvantage: Are pretty much dead in Scotland and without Scotland and 40 seats they got prior to 2015, their path to 326 extremely difficult.  Means winning in normally safe Tory seats like consistuency of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

[mileslunn]

Broadly I can identify 3 main reasons behind Labour's poor showing beyond the global trends.



1. Brexit has won: Whatever negative effects that may have come from brexist are masked by the pandemic meaning that a voter hasn't felt any direct negative effects from brexit given the vastly more disruptive pandemic.

2. Successful Vaccination: The UK's vaccination efforts have been far superior to that of the EU once again reinforcing things in favour of the Brexist Side. Furthermore the return to normal under the Tories has begun which has given the Tory Party a large popularity boost.

3. Labour Running on Nothing: Labour literary had no policies or ideas to run on beyond generic tory sleeze which the public is already tired off and see the tories as finally providing stability.

Absolutely, now whether Brexit will turn out well hard to say, but I also think Remainers made a mistake by claiming what a disaster it will be and its likely Brexit won't be as bad as predictions thus hurting there.  Labour's real problem is much like Democrats they are losing blue collar communities, but they haven't been able to offset it with gains in upper middle class suburbs like Democrats have and that is a challenge.  Democrats are more like Liberal Democrats than Labour and in many ways results for Labour are more akin to what would happen if Bernie Sanders instead of Biden were nominee.

[mileslunn]

A pretty disastrous result for Labour and shows they have a long ways to go before returning to office.  But also they do have 3 years left never mind the successful vaccine rollout is probably helping Tories.  So I suspect things will tighten a bit by next election, but with how big a ditch Labour is in not sure they can easily win.

Big trouble is you are seeing similar re-alignment to US: working class communities swinging rightward while upper middle class suburbs leftward.  In US there are enough of the latter to cancel out former thus how Biden won.  In UK I am not sure if that is the case or at least means Labour needs to absolutely dominate the commuter belt including winning some normally very safe Tory constituencies.  and Johnson for all his flaws, is no Trump and doesn't create the kind of toxicity Trump did in suburbs.

[mileslunn]

I do wonder what is the future of the Brexit Party/Reform considering that they lost their deposit in a seat where they did well in 2019.

They will go nowhere as they get their wish.  Only way they come back is if Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Tories all campaign on rejoining EU, but that will not happen.

[mileslunn]

While not sure would work seat wise, do people see Green party support holding up as depending on which poll you believe, many show Labour + Greens ahead of Tories or at least close.  Only problem is if local elections give any hints, Green support is heavily concentrated in areas Labour already strong thus I am not sure even if all Green voters went Labour would be enough, but still wondering if you will get tactical voting and many Greens uniting behind Labour much like many UKIP/Brexit party have now coalesced behind Tories.  Liberal Democrats are a centrist so I am not sure they really hurt any party.  It seems looking back to 2010 which was their last decent election, in some places their vote swung heavily Labour like university towns, but in other areas like Southwest swung mostly behind the Tories thus not sure an alliance with them will work.

[mileslunn]

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.

[mileslunn]

Nothing really surprising although Labour didn't do that bad although this is a seat they need to win if they want to win back Scotland, but did narrowly outperform 2017.  However, I've found Scotland often swings in opposite direction of England and as mentioned above lots of unionist tactical voting.

I don't think this is actually that common (though the 2010 GE was one occasion when it did happen)

Also in 2015 with respect to Tories who dropped in Scotland rose in England.  Again in 2017 too as Tories gained seats in Scotland lost in England and in fact had May not gained the seats she did in Scotland, she would have lost power altogether as Tories + DUP wouldn't have a majority and would have to turn to Liberal Democrats who I doubt wanted to go into another coalition with Tories.  Probably a short lived Labour government with an agreement to have another Brexit referendum followed by election as doubt LibDems would have supported Corbyn.  Happened again in 2019 as Tories gained seats in England but lost them in Scotland.

[mileslunn]

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.

[mileslunn]

For City of Chester and West Lancashire, seems very unlikely Tories pick up either but if did would be a massive shocker.  That being said if Tories stay above 30% in either or both, that is a good sign.  High 20s shows trouble, but at least not massive defeat.  Under 25% and especially under 20% suggests disaster.  For Labour party, need at least 50% and anything under that shows big trouble.  60% would be nice but might be a challenge.

[mileslunn]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.