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Geoffrey Howe
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« on: March 18, 2021, 10:23:42 AM »

Hartlepool is an absolute tossup as to who will win

Talk about expectations management.

This seat was easily won by Corbyn even in 2019, and when allegations against the Labour candidate were already known IIRC. BXP voters, who couldn't even bring themselves to vote Tory with that party running on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket, are very unlikely to vote Tory now; in this part of the world they are by and large ex-Labour. Add to that government by-election gains being rarer than hen's teeth.

This seat by all rights should be a Labour hold, even if they have troubles at local level. I doubt it would be fatal to Starmer's leadership, but failure to hold Hartlepool when a more toxic leader managed it would seriously undermine his position. You can imagine the crowing from the nuttiest parts of Labour.

The vaccine rollout has helped the Tories in the polls, and assuming it continues smoothly, not a given since there seem to be impending problems with AstraZeneca, it may convince some people to give them a chance, or depress opposition turnout. I shouldn't be surprised if Mr Johnson opened up the country a few days before all the local elections.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2021, 07:33:52 AM »

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Wrong thread, I'll respond in the other one.

Good point  Smile
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2021, 02:51:16 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2021, 03:03:31 AM by Geoffrey Howe »

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2021, 02:42:31 PM »



Could just be expectation management, considering Boris Johnson apparently doesn't expect to win (again, also expectation management)? Though if true, I would place more stock in that than the Survation poll.

How much do you trust this?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2021, 05:26:41 AM »

OK, one day before Hartlepool shall we do an Atlas 'head count' for who people think is going to win?

I don't know enough about polling to have any confident prediction for Hartlepool, but I would be surprised if it fell to the Tories. So for me:

Hartlepool: Labour
West Midlands: Conservative
Tees Valley: Conservative
London: Labour
Scotland: SNP largest party
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2021, 06:30:49 AM »

Probably more interesting to ask 1) if they'll get a majority on their own, 2) who'll come second, 3) does Salmond get in.

(ftr, my answers would be 1) probably 2) Tories 3) yes, just, but that'll probably be Alba's only seat)

Yes it would be more interesting. Don't know whether they'll get a majority on their own. Too close for comfort certainly. I read on electoralcalculus that Alba doing well would benefit the nationalists rather than the unionists, but it was quite late so I can't remember the maths behind that.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2021, 10:21:28 AM »

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2021, 12:08:31 PM »

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.

Would that help Labour in Hartlepool? (more committed core support, Tories more reliant on swing voters).

Insofar as it will have an impact, I suspect so.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2021, 02:04:49 PM »

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2021, 02:24:52 PM »

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

Nobody is required to bring their own pencil, it is just encouraged.

You’re allowed to use a pen aren’t you?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2021, 10:20:40 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.


From what I've read, yes; and she has admitted as much. It's something to do with being police and crime commissioner.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2021, 01:24:37 AM »

Wow. I was quite wrong.

As for Starmer, I like him but he's pretty ineffective. He hasn't been out criticising the poor handling of Brexit. How much have we heard about the collapse of negotiations with Norway? (Virtually nothing.)
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2021, 01:47:13 AM »

how are y'all celeberating the start of the 1000 year tory reich in england ?


Well one has to understand that it's a different Tory party every few years. I can't see George Osborne with these results in Hartlepool, even if he might be doing better now than in 2015.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2021, 04:49:26 AM »

What I've learnt in the past few years is that exciting the electorate and having a positive image - or actively making people think you will lead a better government is more important than being moderate. Now you can't be so radical that you scare many people away - Corbyn
probably did that - but it does seem to me that you can run on a left wing platform and do well, as long as you are charismatic etc. Corbyn was not this, except to a select few people who happen to be active on Twitter or CLPs.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2021, 05:18:03 AM »

I think that is an.......over-simplistic reading of things. Labour going into a 2019 GE on an openly Lexit platform might have seen them lucky to get 150 seats never mind 200.



Obviously Labour wasn't going to be pro Leave, but Corbyn was somewhat more neutral in 2017.

I'm no fan of Corbyn, but it does seem that there was some anti-Brexit Labour voting in 2019. So it was tough either way. Boris was tough to beat, but they could have come closer with something a like a resigned-to-Brexit-but-we'll-be-more-competent message and focusing on other domestic issues from the left which can be popular. Corbyn wasn't the person to do it.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2021, 03:37:28 PM »

I think that is an.......over-simplistic reading of things. Labour going into a 2019 GE on an openly Lexit platform might have seen them lucky to get 150 seats never mind 200.



I thought this at the time, but the truly abysmal performance of the LDs under Swinson suggests most of the left-leaning Remainers would have returned to Labour. It is not as if they did well amongst right-leaning Remainers even with their pro-2nd referendum stance.

The LDs didn't do awfully under Swinson. OK, they should have done better; but they came very close in a good few seats, and overtook Labour in much of southern England. With one more percentage point nationally they would have got quite a few more seats.

Of course seats-wise they didn't do well, but that didn't much matter in a Boris landslide.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2021, 03:51:43 PM »

I think that is an.......over-simplistic reading of things. Labour going into a 2019 GE on an openly Lexit platform might have seen them lucky to get 150 seats never mind 200.



I thought this at the time, but the truly abysmal performance of the LDs under Swinson suggests most of the left-leaning Remainers would have returned to Labour. It is not as if they did well amongst right-leaning Remainers even with their pro-2nd referendum stance.

The LDs didn't do awfully under Swinson. OK, they should have done better; but they came very close in a good few seats, and overtook Labour in much of southern England. With one more percentage point nationally they would have got quite a few more seats.

Of course seats-wise they didn't do well, but that didn't much matter in a Boris landslide.

They absolutely did awfully under Swinson. They went backwards from 2017 in terms of seats and lost their leader's parliamentary representation, failed to retake their most plump Labour-held* target, lost all of the progress they made under Vince Cable, and completely collapsed in most of their Conservative-held targets (especially their former stomping grounds in the Celtic fringe). Even in metropolitan, Remainer-leaning areas, they failed to squeeze all they could out of Labour in, say, Wimbledon. When the dust settled, they had fewer realistic target seats than after 2017, and the list is probably even shorter in reality because ex-MPs like Andrew George have probably lost their appetite to contest these seats again.

*It was actually held by disgraced former Labour MP Jared O'Mara on election day, but this makes the failure to capture the seat even more embarrassing. Labour did a really good job of defending against the LibDems, and could probably have gotten away with being a bit more Lexit-y.

It probably won't stick, but they laid the foundation in many seats across the South, getting by far their best results since 2010; in some places coming close to that. Obviously they should have done better given how bad the others were. It doesn't help much to talk about Scottish seats which have a completely different dynamic.*

*I saw someone say that the loss of East Dunbartonshire showed their anti-Brexit stance backfired, which is ridiculous since they lost it to the pro-EU SNP.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2021, 10:52:58 AM »

And Tracy Babin looks set for election, so pencil Batley and Spen in to your diaries. Of course, we didn't have a by election here too long ago, although the circumstances were ... very different.

Ah yes Labour have a history of doing really well in by-elections here - >80% - so they'll get a landslide.

On a serious note, there is much less of a Brexit Party vote here so it shouldn't be as bad for Labour as Hartlepool.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2021, 01:49:54 PM »

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

Well my confusion was not misplaced. I suspect people in the suburbs were angrier and more motivated to vote against a Labour mayor than they were after two terms of a Tory mayor.

I wonder whether No 10’s conspicuous absence from the campaign ended up helping Shaun Bailey.

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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2021, 01:19:52 PM »

For reference, Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain - a very high figure for non-urban England - on an enormous 83% turnout, estimated highest in the country.

Despite this, it voted over 55% Tory in 2019, with the LDs in second, and over 60% in 2017. Indeed, it has never voted less than 50% Tory since its creation in February 1974; even 1997 when it was one of about ten seats to give Major an absolute majority. The only one in the country with that record I should imagine. So the Home Counties seat par excellence.

It was, incidentally, held by Sir Ian Gilmour.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2021, 01:37:23 AM »

For reference, Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain - a very high figure for non-urban England - on an enormous 83% turnout, estimated highest in the country.

Despite this, it voted over 55% Tory in 2019, with the LDs in second, and over 60% in 2017. Indeed, it has never voted less than 50% Tory since its creation in February 1974; even 1997 when it was one of about ten seats to give Major an absolute majority. The only one in the country with that record I should imagine. So the Home Counties seat par excellence.

It was, incidentally, held by Sir Ian Gilmour.

Any chance this swings to the Lib Dems? I would guess it would’ve been more likely pre-2019, when they were polling better nationally.

Highly doubt it. But who knows what might’ve happened by then?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2021, 05:30:29 AM »

My guess is that the Labour vote could surge there, even if they're far behind the Tories. The LibDems have fallen off the agenda since the 2019 election, they're polling much lower, and Starmer appeals to those Remainer LibDem voters. Looking at the constituency results, the LibDems don't have a huge ancestral vote, and their 2019 surge could have been a tactical Remain vote and Corbyn backlash. On the other hand, LibDems do have a good history in by-elections, even in tough seats.

Still highly doubt it. The Labour Party has always been unpopular in this part of the world (see 19% in 1997) and with the memory of Corbyn fresh, that is unlikely to change too much. The Liberals/Lib Dems have always been the main challengers too.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2021, 07:33:28 AM »

Will they beat their 2010 result? (Look at the 2008 Henley by-election, too.)
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2021, 09:47:19 AM »

And as we know from Tony Blair in Beaconsfield, remember how no-hope byelections can be treated as practice runs for future luminaries.

The present Shadow Chancellor lost her deposit as a Labour candidate in a by-election with a big LibDem surge.

Didn't the 5% threshold come in 1985?
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2021, 02:07:41 PM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

Labour lost their deposit at the last general election in a few Lib Dem-Tory marginals, such as Winchester and Richmond Park off the top of my head.

They just scraped by in Richmond Park, but lost in Winchester. Labour have never got above 11% in Winchester since 1979.
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