UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Benjamin Frank]

Thought a new thread would be worth it, given the last by-election we had was in 2019 (Brecon and Radnorshire, how time flies). This time Mike Hill (Lab) has stepped down in Hartlepool for sexual harassment. Hartlepool is a big piece of the supposed Red Wall, that probably only didn't fall in 2019 due the fact the Brexit Party leader was standing, recieving 25% of the vote. Hartlepool in general has been given to electing novelty candidates: their first elected mayor was one of those guys who dressed like a gorilla or whatever and they apparently came to actually like longtime MP Peter Mandelson.

Morrissey should run.

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.

From what I've read, yes; and she has admitted as much. It's something to do with being police and crime commissioner.

Thanks for the information! 

[Benjamin Frank]

Is there a live stream of the election coverage?

[Benjamin Frank]

Is there a live stream of the election coverage?

BBC doesn't start their coverage until tomorrow morning London-time, but Sky started theirs at midnight. Its live on the site for easy viewing, at least in the US.

Thanks!  Much appreciated.

[Benjamin Frank]

I maintain that the Swinson leadership was awful, even if the performance was not, because her tenure consisted of throwing away most of the gains the LDs had made under Cable and alienating even more Brexiteers. Some of that was inevitable, but the scale of the retreat over a few months was astounding. Even in traditional Tory-Lib Dem fights like Cheadle, Labour voters went back to the red team in significant - and electorally fatal - numbers.

I think it was actually far worse than that. Obviously the 2015 and 2017 GE results and the loss of many incumbents paved the way for this to happen, and things were trending that way anyway, but she basically sealed the demise of the Lib Dems in many of their traditional areas by throwing away any credibility they had in those areas. It will take them a long time to recover and it will probably require lots of local work.

I saw a calculation, it might have been on Sky TV News, the calculation might have been for just England, or it might have included Wales and Scotland as well, I can't remember,  that the local election voting, if translated to a U.K Parliamentary vote, would have been 36% Conservatives, 29% Labour, 17% Liberal Democrats and 18% other.  

To be sure, for the Liberal Democrats that is still a distant third, but it's a lot better than the 11% they received in the 2019 election!  At the local level, the Liberal Democrats seem to still have a fair deal of support.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/keir-starmers-labour-shadow-cabinet-reshuffle-the-winners-and-losers

Keir Starmer’s Labour shadow cabinet reshuffle: the winners and losers

[Benjamin Frank]

Declared Results:

Labour: 13296
Conservatives: 12973
Galloway: 8264
LD: 1254

Others: 1908

Lab hold

Interesting that Labour won even though Galloway did much better than his polling.

I'm sure Labour would have lost with any other candidate though.

[Benjamin Frank]

Lib-Demmanium!

[Benjamin Frank]

There's a polling phenomenon that was once prevalent but seems to have died a death: the Lib Dems getting a major surge after an upset by-election win. Didn't happen after North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham etc and presumably won't happen now. Another one is the party conference bounce. Neither by-elections nor party conferences are treated as the big deal by the media that they used to be so this perhaps isn't surprising.

In the year since the Chesham an Amersham by-election, the Liberal Democrats have gone from around 7% to 13% in the polls.

[Benjamin Frank]

If there are any budding song writers here, I would appreciate a song called "By-election in the U.K" though I know 'cause I, I wanna be, by-election' doesn't make any sense.

[Benjamin Frank]

If Labour lose in Uxbridge I think it poses questions about the Mayoral election next year - I think its fair to say that Khan hasn't been the best mayor and you've got the ULEZ issue in outer London and crime and the various issues with the Metropolitan Police as a big issue. Khan will be the favourite going in and the Conservative candidate is hardly inspiring but I think it'll end up close - there's also the fact that FPTP advantages the Conservatives as the Lib Dems and Greens votes that used to generally transfer towards Labour under SV obviously won't anymore.

Is Khan expected to run for a third term? I can't speak for all big cities, but it seems to be the case that in big cities it's often the case that the mayor's popularity has collapsed after two terms. I think a lot to do with large expectations on the mayor versus the amount of money they have to actually accomplish things.

I think we already got a sense of that in London with the election held off a year due to Covid. The polling showed Khan would have won a large landslide had the election been held the year prior but with Khan into his 5th year, the result was a fair bit tighter.

[Benjamin Frank]

What time is Selby and Aintsley expected to report? I'm listening to the BBC broadcast at the same time as the Canada-Nigeria Women's World Cup game has just started.

[Benjamin Frank]

Combined by-election results
Conservative 36,439
Labour 30,935
Liberal Democrat 22,901

[Benjamin Frank]

any guesses on the spin from the press?

The swing against the tories?

or the tories hanging on in Uxbridge?

Press is commenting on tactical voting.

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't understand how in the UK the liberal democrats can pull of astounding flips in by-elections then totaly choke and loose in general elections. Why can't they translate this success to something meaningful ?. Why can't they replicate their by-election machine in general elections ?

Well, first they don't win most by-elections. They are clearly benefiting as well from tactical voting. As you probably know they had a lot more seats from 1997-2015 (or in the 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010 general elections.)  They need a situation of a lot of voters from the governing party being unwilling to vote for the government but not willing to vote for the main opposition, although from 1997 to the 2010 election, I think they benefited from a concentration of votes in, I believe, Southern England with a lot of middle class and upper middle class suburban voters. Since then, a lot of those voters seem to have switched to Labour, so the Liberal Democrats have had to rebuild a natural voter constituency.

[Benjamin Frank]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1682205393106227200
It will not be a niche issue if you replace ULEZ with any environmental policy I can think of that is likely to piss off the general public. Selling green politics in a cost of living crisis is going to be difficult for any politician. Especially when even Z-list celebs are making front pages with their lavish jet setting lifestyle while a boring suit tells you you can't afford your Ryanair ticket anymore.

(And yes I know that the Western proletariat is privileged in this regard, I am just saying that the big mistake Labour and the Western Left in general could make.is making these issues.

Political ecology will be far more difficult than some of the Left realise.

This is nothing to do with the environemnt per se as changing the status quo is always difficult. The best that can be done is to point out that it's 'short term pain for long term gain' but the challenge is the voters have loss aversion.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688980953312489473
I think the takeaway from this is LibDementum! LibDementum! Not sure what else it might be.

[Benjamin Frank]

Hah, the Liberal Democrats tweeted out the same point.

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688981633406226433

[Benjamin Frank]

Of course, just a poll, but the final in this Conservative horror trilogy.

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/1688990401502347264