UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 04, 2022, 10:06:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK By-elections thread, 2021- (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 74646 times)
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« on: June 22, 2021, 07:56:00 AM »


Quote
The Conservativesí developersí charter would sell off and sell out our communities. Local people, not Tory Party donors, should decide whatís best for where they live.

Labour Party Embraced NIMBYSM it seems. Probably a pundit-brained take from the liberal democrats by-election win.

It's not NIMBY per se. Developers own plenty of land that they don't develop (planning permission has been granted for 1 million houses that are not build), because developpers prefer building luxury houses in the Green Belt at a premium than mixed housing on vacant lots in towns.

It is not NIMBY to say that developpment should follow needs, not potential for profit.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2021, 01:05:00 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley


Would hastily remind you that nobody on this site has anything to do with that trial and nothing we say here has any relevance to the proceedings? Tf?

UK courts have an extremely wide description of subjurice and have been known to crackdown on internet forums discussing pending affairs.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2021, 08:48:14 AM »

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

He is an barrister AND a medical doctor.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2021, 06:07:23 PM »

although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

And he has very much been part of the problem. The self-importance is amusing. If you're on the record as suggesting that the party ignores the findings and recommendations of a legally-binding statuary investigation, then, no, you won't be selected as a candidate. If you need to have it explained to you why this is the case, then you really have no business being in politics at all.

Legally-binding and partial, given they refused many times to open an investigation about Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2021, 03:49:08 PM »

14 candidates for North Shropshire

Suzie Akers Smith (Independent) [1]
Andrea Allen (UKIP)
Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin EU) [2]
Martin Daubney (Reclaim Party) [3]
Russell Dean (The Party Party) [4]
James Elliot (Heritage Party) [5]
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) [6]
Yolande Kenward (no description) [7]
Duncan Kerr (Green)
Helen Morgan (Lib Dem)
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con)
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) [8]
Ben Wood (Lab)

[1] Independent councillor for Congleton West (Cheshire East)
[2] No, that isn't his real name.
[3] This is the party led by actor Laurence Fox.  Daubney was a Brexit Party MEP.
[4] Address in Monaco, of all places.
[5] The UKIP splinter led by David Kurten.
[6] Anti-lockdowns.
[7] From Maidstone, and stood there in 2017 and 2019.  According to the Shropshire Star, "she has also spent many years campaigning for action against paedophiles and corruption".
[8] The renamed Brexit Party.  The candidate is the daughter of former Shropshire Council leader Keith Barrow, who was a Tory but is now supporting her.

That's a very generous assessment.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2022, 05:57:02 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...


One of his few campaign planks is to appoint Tommy Robinson to the House of Lords.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2022, 10:56:10 AM »

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.

The current boundary change proposals reverse that situation, at least according to some calculations.  E.g. if you enter some recent polls into Electoral Calculus and select the current proposals, the new Southend West comes up as a Labour gain.

The current proposal does 3 things.

It moves West Leigh (a Conservative - LD marginal where Labour is usually below 10%) in Castle Point.
It moves the north of West that is quite close to Rochford to Rochford and East; Eastwood Park (same as West Leigh) and St Laurence (a Conservative - Labour - Independent 3-way marginal).
It moves the west of East into West; St Luke (same as St Lawrence), Victoria (safe Labour) and Milton (safeish Labour).
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2022, 01:36:46 PM »

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.
Wait farmers support protectionism in the UK? Any reason this is so different than in the US?

The exact same reason in fact. US ones want free trade to flood UK with their products, UK ones don't want free trade so they are not flooded with US products.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2022, 05:10:36 PM »

Do these Lib Dem victories portend anything enduring in all these safe Tory seats? Or are they just one time by-election protest votes and these seats will return to the fold in the GE? Would be interesting if we saw a similar phenomenon to what happened in Australia here.

Tiverton and North Shropshire look like normal Leave voting safe Tory seats. The LibDems are on track to do very well in highly educated Remain voting (or narrowly Leave seats) imo, I think they retain Chesham and Amersham. It does show the Tories have a very low floor to a minor party opposition.




Tiverton is also in an area with significant LD history, though. I think they could well retain this one, although the boundary changes will be a bit of a wildcard. I agree North Shropshire is the biggest stretch - but you never know, if the Tories are getting walloped nationwide they won't have the resources to spare to try to fight to win it back.

Current proposal is sending Tiverton in a new cross-county seat with Minehead.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,058
Canada


« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 08:10:25 AM »

Does the speculation that Boris is using this by-election to move seats have any merit? It would be hard for the party to let him do that and then for him to win a by-election. Problem is if he wants to come back as PM he needs to have a safer seat than Uxbridge, coming back in this term would be too big of an ask. He always would have been a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister anyway. In any case, the easier and more comfortable career path for him is to be another media commentator sniping on the sidelines.

If Johnson really is planning a comeback, I'd imagine it would look more like the career strategy he took when becoming London Mayor. Vacate the Commons for a job elsewhere, (although probably on the international stage, rather than in the capital this time), build some good publicity, and come racing back to the Commons, when a safe seat opens up.

In the early Blair years, the Kensington and Chelsea constituency was basically used as a rental for Conservative grandees who lost their seats in 1997. Michael Portillo and Malcolm Rifkind both used it for a few terms while they sought to revive their careers. I guess something similar could happen in a seat like Dorries' but it could be more controversial with Johnson. If he does come back - it definitely won't be to Kensington, which is now one of the most marginal seats in the country...

And Chelsea is safe enough, but Greg Hands doesn't look like he wants to retire yet.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 12 queries.