UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170093 times)
MaxQue
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« on: June 22, 2021, 07:56:00 AM »


Quote
The Conservatives’ developers’ charter would sell off and sell out our communities. Local people, not Tory Party donors, should decide what’s best for where they live.

Labour Party Embraced NIMBYSM it seems. Probably a pundit-brained take from the liberal democrats by-election win.

It's not NIMBY per se. Developers own plenty of land that they don't develop (planning permission has been granted for 1 million houses that are not build), because developpers prefer building luxury houses in the Green Belt at a premium than mixed housing on vacant lots in towns.

It is not NIMBY to say that developpment should follow needs, not potential for profit.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2021, 01:05:00 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley


Would hastily remind you that nobody on this site has anything to do with that trial and nothing we say here has any relevance to the proceedings? Tf?

UK courts have an extremely wide description of subjurice and have been known to crackdown on internet forums discussing pending affairs.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2021, 08:48:14 AM »

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

He is an barrister AND a medical doctor.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2021, 06:07:23 PM »

although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

And he has very much been part of the problem. The self-importance is amusing. If you're on the record as suggesting that the party ignores the findings and recommendations of a legally-binding statuary investigation, then, no, you won't be selected as a candidate. If you need to have it explained to you why this is the case, then you really have no business being in politics at all.

Legally-binding and partial, given they refused many times to open an investigation about Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2021, 03:49:08 PM »

14 candidates for North Shropshire

Suzie Akers Smith (Independent) [1]
Andrea Allen (UKIP)
Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin EU) [2]
Martin Daubney (Reclaim Party) [3]
Russell Dean (The Party Party) [4]
James Elliot (Heritage Party) [5]
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) [6]
Yolande Kenward (no description) [7]
Duncan Kerr (Green)
Helen Morgan (Lib Dem)
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con)
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) [8]
Ben Wood (Lab)

[1] Independent councillor for Congleton West (Cheshire East)
[2] No, that isn't his real name.
[3] This is the party led by actor Laurence Fox.  Daubney was a Brexit Party MEP.
[4] Address in Monaco, of all places.
[5] The UKIP splinter led by David Kurten.
[6] Anti-lockdowns.
[7] From Maidstone, and stood there in 2017 and 2019.  According to the Shropshire Star, "she has also spent many years campaigning for action against paedophiles and corruption".
[8] The renamed Brexit Party.  The candidate is the daughter of former Shropshire Council leader Keith Barrow, who was a Tory but is now supporting her.

That's a very generous assessment.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2022, 05:57:02 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...


One of his few campaign planks is to appoint Tommy Robinson to the House of Lords.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2022, 10:56:10 AM »

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.

The current boundary change proposals reverse that situation, at least according to some calculations.  E.g. if you enter some recent polls into Electoral Calculus and select the current proposals, the new Southend West comes up as a Labour gain.

The current proposal does 3 things.

It moves West Leigh (a Conservative - LD marginal where Labour is usually below 10%) in Castle Point.
It moves the north of West that is quite close to Rochford to Rochford and East; Eastwood Park (same as West Leigh) and St Laurence (a Conservative - Labour - Independent 3-way marginal).
It moves the west of East into West; St Luke (same as St Lawrence), Victoria (safe Labour) and Milton (safeish Labour).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2022, 01:36:46 PM »

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.
Wait farmers support protectionism in the UK? Any reason this is so different than in the US?

The exact same reason in fact. US ones want free trade to flood UK with their products, UK ones don't want free trade so they are not flooded with US products.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2022, 05:10:36 PM »

Do these Lib Dem victories portend anything enduring in all these safe Tory seats? Or are they just one time by-election protest votes and these seats will return to the fold in the GE? Would be interesting if we saw a similar phenomenon to what happened in Australia here.

Tiverton and North Shropshire look like normal Leave voting safe Tory seats. The LibDems are on track to do very well in highly educated Remain voting (or narrowly Leave seats) imo, I think they retain Chesham and Amersham. It does show the Tories have a very low floor to a minor party opposition.




Tiverton is also in an area with significant LD history, though. I think they could well retain this one, although the boundary changes will be a bit of a wildcard. I agree North Shropshire is the biggest stretch - but you never know, if the Tories are getting walloped nationwide they won't have the resources to spare to try to fight to win it back.

Current proposal is sending Tiverton in a new cross-county seat with Minehead.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 08:10:25 AM »

Does the speculation that Boris is using this by-election to move seats have any merit? It would be hard for the party to let him do that and then for him to win a by-election. Problem is if he wants to come back as PM he needs to have a safer seat than Uxbridge, coming back in this term would be too big of an ask. He always would have been a better Leader of the Opposition than Prime Minister anyway. In any case, the easier and more comfortable career path for him is to be another media commentator sniping on the sidelines.

If Johnson really is planning a comeback, I'd imagine it would look more like the career strategy he took when becoming London Mayor. Vacate the Commons for a job elsewhere, (although probably on the international stage, rather than in the capital this time), build some good publicity, and come racing back to the Commons, when a safe seat opens up.

In the early Blair years, the Kensington and Chelsea constituency was basically used as a rental for Conservative grandees who lost their seats in 1997. Michael Portillo and Malcolm Rifkind both used it for a few terms while they sought to revive their careers. I guess something similar could happen in a seat like Dorries' but it could be more controversial with Johnson. If he does come back - it definitely won't be to Kensington, which is now one of the most marginal seats in the country...

And Chelsea is safe enough, but Greg Hands doesn't look like he wants to retire yet.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #10 on: December 16, 2022, 09:51:09 AM »

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

So just avoiding your "bad omen" but well short of the "good soft target".  I think it's more consistent with a national score around 5% than the higher ones in some polls.

I think the Lib Dems ought to be disappointed, losing their deposit, being beaten by the Greens and only just avoiding being beaten by Reform UK, though I think they didn't try very hard.

Yeah - a resoundingly meh result for Reform. Although I’m vaguely impressed that they managed to get *exactly the same percentage* that they got in 2019.

On the Lib Dems, I wonder whether they’ve just taken their informal non-aggression thing with Labour as an excuse to sit this one out. Odds are there will be more plausible seats to target at some point next year, if one of Afriye, Hancock, Dorries etc ends up standing down early.

The LD actually polled better last night than in both 2015 and 2017. It's just that hopeless for them. They had candidates in all wards of the constituency last May and their best result was 6%.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #11 on: June 06, 2023, 05:14:01 PM »

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2023, 08:25:29 PM »

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?
Selby and Ainsty - The Conservatives will have won everything in 2019, but in the forthcoming by-election Labour will do best in Selby itself along with a few other forming mining villages nearby and on the western border of the constituency. Against that, the Tories will still do well in the wealthy rural parts of the constituency, especially in the Ainsty area which is very North Yorkshire.

Mid Bedfordshire - Hard to say really. Labour did well in a couple of wards bordering Hitchin while the Lib Dems are competitive in the wards near Bedford, but it’s otherwise really quite a homogenous constituency consisting of mostly well off villages and the Tories will have been far ahead at the last general election everywhere.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour are strongest in Yiewsley and Uxbridge itself (more working class and a modest number of students), Hillingdon is comfortably Conservative (but pretty representative so will probably be Labour at the by-election), while southern Ruislip is the most Conservative part (more middle class and noticeably whiter).

One thing to add is at least under the currently proposed boundary changes the Selby seat is going to get comparatively better for Labour through getting sucked in closer to Leeds. Obviously still a Tory seat in a national nailbiter, but straight two-party swings using current polling would see the new seat flip whereas the old seat would hold. So Labour have an incentive to push hard in that seat, even if picking it up won't be as easy as Uxbridge.

And for the two other seats:

Mid Bedfordshire: Lose some villages west of Bedford and the parts near Hitchin. Majority probably goes down because of reduced population, but is actually safer % wise.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Lose some of Ruislip, picks up Harefield (which is actually a village surronded by fields and woods) in the extreme north west of London. That's obviously more Conservative than Ruislip, so that's good for them.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2023, 05:45:20 PM »

Personally I think in the current environment even North Shropshire would be a hold for the Lib Dems. As people like Tim Farron, Norman Lamb proved 2015-19 the Lib Dems can overcome the Conservative bent of a seat with a good local profile even with strong Pro-Tory headwinds - and those don’t exist now. Christchurch ‘97 is the obvious counter to this, but it was a long time ago with an arguably more popular Tory party.

I think it was more to do with it being Christchurch.

Without the boundary changes, I think the Lib Dems would have a decent chance in all four.  But all four undergo changes and two of them are carved in two.  Major boundary changes are rarely helpful for the Lib Dems as they are dependent on persistent hard work and getting people to get to know their MPs.

In North Shropshire the changes do them no harm, as they merely remove a couple of wards, and there’s no reason to think those wards are better for them than the constituency as a whole; indeed I suspect the reverse.  Chesham & Amersham gains Gerrards Cross (a very rich commuter town) and Hazlemere (a generally Tory suburb of High Wycombe, though one of its councillors is the Climate Party candidate from Uxbridge) and loses Great Missenden and some rural territory west of Chesham; as I said in the boundaries thread I’m really not sure what effect this has, and the trends in the SE mean that obvious assumptions about places like Gerrards Cross being very Tory may not be as valid as they once were, which takes some getting used to.

Christchurch is Christchurch, but they still won it with 60% of the vote - a reverse of what the Tories got in 1992. So there’s precedent for the Lib Dem’s to get massive swings in a by-election and lose it anyway. Even if that’s not what I think will happen this time.

Ironically, Christchurch is one of the major reasons why Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole isn't Conservative-run.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2023, 05:05:30 PM »

Southend is one of the southern towns and cities where Labour is surging
I was not aware that this was a thing -- what's the deal?
There are quite a few places in urban southern England with fairly average demographics where Labour have really underperformed since the 80s onwards. Just as the Conservatives have benefitted from depolarisation in the #RedWall, Labour can do so in these places as well. There’s also some that would be trending Labour in absence of other political change, as they become more popular with younger commuters and similar things.

I don't think that really applies to Southend, where Labour has underperformed since there has been a Labour Party. Labour historically did badly in seaside towns until they broke through in 1997, but this didn't happen in Southend, mostly because the boundaries split Labour strength in the city centre between the two constituencies. The closest we've ever come to winning a seat in the city was in a 1980 by-election at the height of Thatcher's unpopularity.

Labour success in recent years seems mostly to be a consequence of it now behaving less as a seaside town and more as a peripheral urban centre to London.

Through, seaside towns seems to be moving. Brighton, Portsmouth (on the Westminster level), Bournemouth, Poole and, of course, Worthing.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2023, 10:24:20 AM »

Unskew the polls!

The reform vote looks too high and I really doubt G*** M***er tiny party is going to get 4%.

Especially with the Greens on just 2%.

Though the main party figures do look credible - the earlier survey had the Indy implausibly high.

Not necesseraly wrong then, through. It was right after the local elections (where he would have had an higher profile) and before the big party machines got on the ground.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2023, 07:57:22 PM »

Rumors that Labour have won with a 7% majority.

times 4.5.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2023, 10:34:44 AM »

Out of interest where has the weird trend come from about looking at raw vote totals rather than vote share?

I've heard a lot of political commentators, even the non-hacks, basically repeat rubbish such as 'well Labours raw vote barely went up so there isn't any enthusiasm'- yet even when I did my A-levels I knew that by elections always had lower turnout...

CCHQ and the leadership of the employers of those commentators.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #18 on: March 03, 2024, 10:03:15 AM »

Here's the last time Galloway was 'sworn in' to Parliament:




A few things to note about it are:

- His sponsors are the late Sir Peter Tapsell (the then-Father of the House and the last MP who was a successful candidate in the 1959 election) and...I'm drawing a blank on the other MP, someone will probably fill me in.

It's apparently Gerry Sutcliffe, his constituency neighbour (Bradford South, 1994 to 2015). Low level PPC/non-Cabinet minister during Blair/Brown, Burnham campaign manager in the 2010 leadership race.
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