UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[rc18]

Hartlepool is an absolute tossup as to who will win

Talk about expectations management.

This seat was easily won by Corbyn even in 2019, and when allegations against the Labour candidate were already known IIRC. BXP voters, who couldn't even bring themselves to vote Tory with that party running on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket, are very unlikely to vote Tory now; in this part of the world they are by and large ex-Labour. Add to that government by-election gains being rarer than hen's teeth.

This seat by all rights should be a Labour hold, even if they have troubles at local level. I doubt it would be fatal to Starmer's leadership, but failure to hold Hartlepool when a more toxic leader managed it would seriously undermine his position. You can imagine the crowing from the nuttiest parts of Labour.

[rc18]

Having said all that it appears the Labour Party is maneuvering its current Cleveland PCC candidate Paul Williams into position as their prospective parliamentary candidate. Being a rabid remainer in one of the most leave-voting constituencies in the country, perhaps Labour are being sporting and trying to make it a closer race than it should be.

[rc18]

Having said all that it appears the Labour Party is maneuvering its current Cleveland PCC candidate Paul Williams into position as their prospective parliamentary candidate. Being a rabid remainer in one of the most leave-voting constituencies in the country, perhaps Labour are being sporting and trying to make it a closer race than it should be.

If they run him and he's openly pro EU during the campaign then I would probably be inclined to change my prediction to tilt/lean Tory

Well he's been deleting all his second referendum-supporting tweets, so seems like he'll try and avoid the subject as much as possible.

It's possible it won't be as salient an issue now to be fair.

[rc18]

Nuts when you think about it.

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1390590110052323331

[rc18]

When will the results come out ?

According to the local news it appears they are counting overnight, so probably in the early hours of the morning.

A LD victory would give them the useful reward of reminding a lot of people that they actually still exist.

What an awful thought.

[rc18]

As an aside it is an odd thing that all three English by-elections so far have/are happened/happening in constituencies right at the top of the defending party's theoretical 'actually this would not be ideal' lists - and for different reasons in all cases.

Yes and we could soon have by elections in Delyn and Wakefield, both marginal seats that the Tories gained in 2019.

Could be a nice present for whoever Labour's new leader is

A new leader means losing B&S and an internecine war of succession. It also raises the question of who exactly; let's face it Labour is hardly brimming with talent right now. Polls are not necessarily going to stay where they are.

Be careful what you wish for. The situation in Delyn and Wakefield may be very different under a new LOTO, and poison yet another opposition.

[rc18]

A factor in recent years, given the age polarisation that has occurred in the last decade, is likely that it is disproportionately older voters who turn out for them (more than at GEs, I mean) And of course this will benefit the right if so (I do wonder if the LibDems managed to buck this trend somewhat in C&A?)

It's not just disproportionately getting older, but also disproportionately becoming higher social grade (ABC1), which is where the majority of LD support comes from. This had been happening for a while but you can really see it in the changes in voting patterns over the Blair years. So it's not surprising the Lib Dems have done well in by-elections and locals in affluent areas in recent years only to flop when everyone else bothers to vote. So these changes are not all good for the Right now considering how much the support base for various parties has changed.

[rc18]

I may be totally wrong, but the mood music I'm hearing suggests to me a Labour hold.

[rc18]

I may be totally wrong, but the mood music I'm hearing suggests to me a Labour hold.

From...?

Just reading between the lines of what various sources are saying; activists/campaigners and politicians.

As I said, could be totally wrong. I sense though that Labour are much more bullish after a significantly more robust by-election campaign than their recent efforts.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/LdrTony/status/1410704595144282114?s=20

Sounds like some at the count is getting high off their own stash, but I guess we will see.

Really unlikely in a seat like this.  I've seen it suggested this is a reference to postal vote returns, which makes more sense. That would not be remarkable, lower than at the GE.

[rc18]

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.

The core Lib Dem vote in England is very affluent, just look at the seats they win or are close in. Not so much aspirational middle-class than upper middle-class. If we're being horribly general, you could say it's people who view themselves as socially-conscious, but are rather less enthusiastic about having their wealth redistributed...

The regions of real wealth outside the capital are mostly to the west of London; e.g. the M3, M4 and M40 corridors. The ex-industrial east side of London, towards Essex and Kent, is very different; this is generally where the working class of London moved out to. They may be more middle-class now, but in the aspirational sense, rather than inherited wealth.



The parts that voted remain in the south largely match the wealthiest areas.

[rc18]

Comparisons have been made with nearby Bromley and Chislehurst, where the LibDems nearly won a byelection in 2006 with a big swing away from the (still in opposition)Tories.

But even B&C has more favourable demographics for the yellows than this one. Labour have finished second here in every GE since 1992 too (coming reasonably close in 1997 and 2001) and will surely be making more of an effort than they did in C&A recently.

This is one of the best seat defences that could have come up for the Tories at the present time, in short. A loss would be a genuine and major shock, and might even put "unassailable" BoJo in peril.

This highlights one of the great misunderstandings about the Lib Dems. Prior to 2010 the Lib Dems were the primary recipients of the none-of-the-above vote. If you weren't a fan of either Labour or the Tories they were the only high-profile protest, even if you weren't a sandal-wearing liberal. The reason for their collapse was mostly the rise in national profile of UKIP.

General election 2010: Bromley and Chislehurst
Party   Candidate   Votes   %
Conservative   Bob Neill   23,569/53.5
Liberal Democrats   Sam Webber   9,669/22.0
Labour   Chris Kirby   7,295/16.6
UKIP   Emmett Jenner   1,451/3.3
BNP   Rowena Savage   1,070/2.4
Green   Roisin Robertson   607/1.5
English Democrat   Jon Cheeseman   376/0.9
Majority   13,900/31.6
Turnout   44,037/67.3


General election 2015: Bromley and Chislehurst
Party   Candidate   Votes   %   ±%
Conservative   Bob Neill   23,343/53.0/-0.5
Labour   John Courtneidge   9,779/22.2/+5.6
UKIP   Emmett Jenner   6,285/14.3/+11.0
Liberal Democrats   Sam Webber   2,836/6.4/-15.6
Green   Roisin Robertson 1,823/4.1/+2.6
Majority   13,564/30.8/-0.8
Turnout   44,066/68.4/+1.1   

That's why the Lib Dems got decent votes in the early 2000s in areas that went very Brexity.

The idea that the Lib Dems might do well in a certain constituency because of their vote in the 2000s is pure fantasy, especially after bollocks-to-Brexit.

[rc18]

Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

E.g. average house price in September 2021 in Bexley;

£450,376

That's one of the lowest in all of Greater London, only Barking and Dagenham is significantly lower.

Average house price in Richmond;

£886,052

One of the highest in Greater London, only significantly less than the likes of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster.

It may not have as many areas of grinding poverty as some of the inner London boroughs (which tend to also have very wealthy neighbourhoods), which may be why you imagine it is affluent, but in reality it's absolutely nothing like the wealthy boroughs.

[rc18]

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

Not 'the entire borough of Bexley' but 'the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup', yes. I would certainly not describe Erith as 'rather affluent', but neither it nor similar areas nearby are in this constituency. Which is largely comprised of privately-built, owner-occupied residential suburbs (with one of the lowest percentages of people living in social housing in the GLA area) where most people in employment work in well-paid jobs with a heavy lean towards lower management and administrative/secretarial work. It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond, but is actually a much more 'typical' sort of middle class area. There are exceptions (particularly towards the southern end), but then there are in just about every constituency in the country these days.

Old Bexley and Sidcup is no Erith, sure, but it's no Bexleyheath either. The relative lack of social housing does not necessarily make a place affluent. And where is this well-paid stuff coming from? The average wage here is pretty distinctly average for London. It seems you are conflating basic administrative middle-class as "affluent", which is frankly bizarre. Basic admin jobs are typically the employment that skilled/manual labours moved into during the 90s, these are the old "Essex man" and "Mondeo man" types. Why do you think the percentage of graduates is so low (for London)?

It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond

A moment ago you were claiming it's just like Richmond except the precise types of middle-class jobs people have. Sorry, no, they are vastly different places with totally different histories of wealth.  

Most places are a patchwork, most constituencies are artificial constructions, voting for Brexit or having a grandparent born in Rotherhithe in 1904 does not make you working class.

Good job I never said that then, isn't it?

This is generally where the working class of London moved out to. They may be more middle-class now...

But the point is the lower admin "middle-class" has its origins in the working class, the managers and directors of Richmond Park most certainly do not.

[rc18]

It always seems to be taken as a given that the Lib Dems know what's going on, and yet I've been at a count for a seat they were genuinely targeting where they flooded the venue with tons of activists. They seemed convinced they had a strong chance of winning all the way through the night.

They lost by around 10,000 votes...

That will forever be seared into my memory, and why I would take Lib Dem claims with a dollop of salt. Especially given that was a far easier constituency to canvas than North Shropshire, and had a decent existing Lib Dem voter base.

[rc18]

Presumably that was in a general election, though? Slightly different dynamic there.

Yes it was at a GE, but we're talking about the quality of their data. They had the benefit of lots of previous canvassing reports so will have had far better data than what will be available in North Shropshire, and still managed to get it totally wrong.

[rc18]

I expect Reform will save their deposit, unlike the LDs, and 10-15% is certainly feasible in a seat like this. I think that most of the Tory protest vote will be of the sit-on-your-hands variety rather than directly lost to anyone else though.

[rc18]

North Shropshire is as similar to Chesham & Amersham as Old Bexley & Sidcup is, i.e. not at all.

The Paterson issue would be a bigger problem if he was standing for re-election. This alone is probably not enough to sink them here. The new candidate, while bearing the sin of being a Brummie, otherwise has an impressive résumé.

The worry from the Tories will be another sub-par turnout from general disaffection. Ironically all the talk of a possible Lib Dem gain might help them to consolidate their vote a little.

[rc18]

No more ironic than the Labour seats, which were anti-EU (well, EC) in Heath's time but are now pro-EU. Both sides have done a 180 on the issue.

[rc18]

Whilst the Tory base (and especially the base in Bexley) isn't going to vote Labour (class-based voting amongst a certain sort of Tory is very definitely not dead), it's a lot more willing to flirt with the Lib Dems to send a message.

Here's the rub though, that is only true for certain parts of the Tory electorate, largely the wealthy graduate commuters you're more likely to find west of London. After all, if this were a universal in the Tory coalition then the LDs should have been able to siphon off disaffected Tory voters in OB&S. C&A has a high proportion of these types of Tory, OB&S and NS don't.

Why is there so much pro-Brexit sentiment in Old Bexley and Sidcup? I get the Brexit sentiment in "left behind" rust belt areas of the north etc... but what explains anyone in Greater London wanting Brexit when its so abundantly clear that if there is one place that will be (and has already been) devastated by Brexit, its London? Though I suppose some might ask that question to a certain former mayor of London...

Well that begs the question as to whether Bexley is London, it was formerly part of Kent before Greater London was created. Demographic change in London has only really accelerated in the last couple of decades, and particularly the south of the Borough is still culturally more Kent than London.

There are plenty of relatively left behind areas in the south, and particularly north/east Kent and south/east Essex are fairly Brexity, places which gave UKIP their only MPs.

[rc18]

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

The stuff that comes up on these threads.

Golf courses are a sign of places which have undeveloped land at relatively low cost (or they would have had houses built on them). You will find plenty of golf courses up in the north of England near very depressed communities. As your trainline comment betrays, the affluent people these golf courses attract will often be from elsewhere, in this case often people from closer to central London looking for open space for such activites.

I don't find it surprising how people on the left completely don't understand wealth, or lack thereof, outside major urban areas. Just because there's more open space doesn't mean everyone is well off. Just because there are more owner occupied dwellings doesn't mean they are more well off, because property is significantly cheaper and salaries lower etc etc. These might be a sign of differences in wealth within an urban area, but this doesn't translate between urban and rural.

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this archetype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjure up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype in Kent for example, such as Tunbridge Wells, are the only places around those parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?

[rc18]

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this architype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjur up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype, such as Tonbridge Wells for example, are the only places around these parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?

Um, if you actually read my post, you would have noticed I said that there evidently was a class correlation, and that the average Remain-voting place is obviously more affluent than the average Leave-voting one. My point was that old people in, say, Tunbridge Wells, are likely to have voted Leave even if they were well-off, because age tended to trump class. There is, believe it or not, quite a bit of nuance to such patterns. I hate to go all “anecdotal evidence”, but I know of quite a few elderly upper middle people here in uber-Remain SW London who voted Leave. And, by the way, I’m really not the type to obsess over the voter demographics of my preferred side to convince myself of our moral superiority. I’m a keen, but generally disinterested, observer of electoral sociology.

The correlations you are talking about are aggregated over the whole country though. When talking only of certain areas these break down.

I'm from Kent originally, I know it and the people well. I was driving around during the referendum when all the signs were up. There were so many here on private properties it was pretty easy to see the correlations. The dominant factor of whether any property was Leave or Remain was clearly not age, but the socio-economics of the area. Townhouses, converted barns, new-build for London escapees were all uniformally Remain. Ex-council estates and decrepit victorian terraces etc (which by their nature tend to house younger families here) were a sea of Leave.

The reason for the age factor is the massive demographic difference between London (and to a smaller extent other cities) and the rest of the country. Young people outside the cities are not necessarily strongly remain, old people not necessarily as Leave as the aggregated figures suggest either.

It's incredibly frustrating when people not from the area claim the reason places like north and east Kent voted leave was because, despite the demographic figures, they're actually full of rich old people; I know from my own experience it was precisely the opposite.

[rc18]

It will be interesting just how dismal the Tory turnout will be, but I suspect enough for the LDs to take it if they (likely) hoover up the Labour vote.