UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Lord Halifax]

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Local politics rarely influence national voting, usually it's the other way round. It seems more likely that Labour's candidate for mayor will gain a bit from Labour supporters voting straight ticket who'd otherwise have voted for Houchen.

[Lord Halifax]

Meanwhile, some excitement caused by a "poll" of Hartlepool which isn't actually a poll as such.

Tell us more.

[Lord Halifax]

John Prescott (no, not that John Prescott), will be the Reform candidate in Hartlepool. He stood in Stockton South in 2019, so this is his second race against Paul Williams.

Too bad, would have been funny.

[Lord Halifax]

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

Does it matter that it was commissioned by a trade union?

What 'issues' are you talking about?

[Lord Halifax]

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?

[Lord Halifax]

How likely are we to get a new constituency poll from a quality pollster?

[Lord Halifax]

The UK press seems filled with stories about how the Tories are going to win Hartlepool and interviews with locals confirming that people are fed up with being taken for granted by Labour and are voting Tory but won't say so publicly etc. Is that just because it's the most exciting narrative or is this race actually trending Conservative now?

How important is the accusation that the Labour candidate helped shut down the local hospital?

[Lord Halifax]

How credible is this?



https://www.survation.com/new-phone-poll-places-conservatives-on-course-for-hartlepool-win/

[Lord Halifax]

How credible is this?

https://www.survation.com/new-phone-poll-places-conservatives-on-course-for-hartlepool-win/

I don’t buy 12% combined for two independents.

Sure, but I was mostly thinking about the huge Tory margin. I thought if there was one thing you could be relatively sure off it was that this would be quite close.

It's only a 301 sample and it's a phone poll so could be biased towards old folks using landlines, but not sure if that's the case.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1389628163320393729

[Lord Halifax]

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.

Would that help Labour in Hartlepool? (more committed core support, Tories more reliant on swing voters).

[Lord Halifax]

The main problem for Labour would be the reason for the vacancy: Hill has been accused of sexual harassment and faces an Employment Tribunal relating to the allegations later this year. Given that the accusations were known at the time of the last election he really should not have been allowed to stand again.

Anyway, this is a very odd town with very odd and not always entirely predictable politics. Labour have the biggest base and are the best organised party locally and will benefit from the fact that opposition voters are more likely to turn out in by-elections. Assumptions that you can just add up the Conservative and Brexit Party votes from the last GE and project onto a by-election are... silly... but I presume the Conservatives will make an effort (or at least run a noisy campaign to the effect) and hope that the oddities of the constituency break their way. Quite what to expect from the artists formerly known as UKIP/the Brexit Party I'm not entirely sure, but, again, presumably some effort just because of past performances and local government strength.* Which is the other issue: there might (although this isn't certain) be various independent runs from various egotistical local players that might be worth a few thousand votes, or not.

Turns out you'd have gotten very close to the result by doing just that. Tory + Brexit = 54.7% and Jill Mortimer got 51.9%, only 2.8 points short. Reform UK got 1.2%.

The result is basically what someone with only superficial knowledge of British politics and the region would have guessed by looking at the 2019 numbers.

[Lord Halifax]

Not sure how on earth that happened, Starmer needs to go further in ruthlessly eliminating Labour's negatives and now take the chance to promote some bold sounding policies that poll well. The problem is that Boris right now is pretty popular with the vaccine rollout, hopefully his popularity will fade over the next few years. It's a shame that there is no electoral penalty for the many errors in the Covid response but there's not much that can be done, Covid is in the past.

In Hartlepool it seems both candidates were good and capable of earning crossover support. What tipped things in a big way is Boris. He's the 800-pound gorilla.
God help Labour if they still face popular Boris in 2024.

On the contrary both candidates were "a bit sh**t" (to use a Britishism), but their weaknesses probably cancelled each other out.

What makes you think Williams earned "crossover support"? He got less votes than Labour did in 2019.

[Lord Halifax]

So apparently Batley and Spen is 20% Asian (and I assume that means South Asian), is there any way to look up how many of those are Hindus and Muslims? I assume Muslims are more reliable Labour/anti-Tory voters than Hindus and Sikhs?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-statistics-ethnicity/#single_constituency

[Lord Halifax]

Hartlepool is an absolute tossup as to who will win

Talk about expectations management.

This seat was easily won by Corbyn even in 2019, and when allegations against the Labour candidate were already known IIRC. BXP voters, who couldn't even bring themselves to vote Tory with that party running on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket, are very unlikely to vote Tory now; in this part of the world they are by and large ex-Labour. Add to that government by-election gains being rarer than hen's teeth.

This seat by all rights should be a Labour hold, even if they have troubles at local level. I doubt it would be fatal to Starmer's leadership, but failure to hold Hartlepool when a more toxic leader managed it would seriously undermine his position. You can imagine the crowing from the nuttiest parts of Labour.

Funny.

Not really, it was a fairly reasonable assumption at the time. The irony is that what happened was easy to "predict" if you don't know much about British politics, but quite surprising if you do (at least the size of the margin, but even the result itself). On Vote UK filled with British anoraks and generally centre-right leaning c. 70% of those voting in the poll thought it would be a Labour hold right up to the final day, including most Conservatives. The media narrative was that it would be a Tory win, but given the low quality of both political journalism and constituency polling in the UK that was hard to take entirely seriously.

[Lord Halifax]

When can we expect a date for Chesham and Amersham?

[Lord Halifax]

Of course there's also Airdrie & Shotts tomorrow...

Yeah, but everbody seems to consider the result a foregone conclusion, and the few bookies bothering with it have odds around 1.03/1.04 on an SNP win. I doubt even SLAB think they can win it.

[Lord Halifax]

Chesham and Amersham will be on June 17.
https://www.buckinghamshire.gov.uk/your-council/council-and-democracy/election-and-voting/election-timetable-and-notices/

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/journoamrogers/status/1396517041276862464?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Lord Halifax]

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?

[Lord Halifax]

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?

Friday next week (4 June), I think.  (19 working days before the election.)

Apparently it's 7 June because Spring Bank Holiday (31 May) counts as a dies non. But apart from the Greens, Reform and possibly Halloran (rumored to be in taks with Reform) it looks like all the important ones have been selected.

"The Liberal Democrats have selected community campaigner Jo Conchie as the party's candidate for the Batley and Spen by-election. (...)

Labour has selected Kim Leadbeater, whose sister Jo Cox was the area's MP when she was murdered by a right-wing extremist.

The Conservatives have selected Ryan Stephenson, a Leeds councillor, as their candidate.

Former MP George Galloway, who was expelled from Labour in 2003, has also announced his intention to stand for his Workers Party of Britain.

The Yorkshire Party has selected local engineer Corey Robinson as its candidate."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-57282994

Some random guy called Jack Thomson is running for UKIP.

Rumors about Hallloran:
"The Tories’ chances of victory will become much clearer when local independent heavyweight Paul Halloran makes his mind up about whether or not to stand (..) Guido now hears multiple rumours that he is having serious conversations with Tice’s Reform Party."

https://order-order.com/2021/05/26/kingmaking-batley-spen-independent-candidate-may-be-poached-by-national-party/

[Lord Halifax]

Looks like the Greens are trying to muscle their way into the contest in Batley and Spen..

"Rugby league international Ross Peltier has been chosen as the Green Party's candidate for the forthcoming Batley and Spen by-election."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-leeds-57270358

Paul Halloran has posted on facebook that he'll be "announcing my intentions by the end of this week", so waiting to the last minute and milking the media attention for all it's worth. 

[Lord Halifax]

"The Liberal Democrats have announced a new candidate to stand in the Batley and Spen by-election after their original candidate Jo Conchie withdrew.

Tom Gordon, a current councillor in Wakefield, will replace Ms Conchie, who withdrew from the race because of health issues."

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2021-06-03/batley-and-spen-liberal-democrats-announce-new-candidate-for-by-election

[Lord Halifax]

Batley and Spen candidates:

Far right or right wing populist:
Jayda Fransen - Independent (ex-EDL and Britain First)
Jack Thompson - UKIP
Anne Marie Waters - For Britain Movement
Susan Laird - Heritage Party
Thérèse Hirst - English Democrats

Libertarian:
Jonathan Tilt

Centre-right:
Ryan Stephenson - Conservative
Paul Bickerdike - Christian Peoples Alliance

Centrist or mixed left/right:
Tom Gordon - Liberal Democrats
Ollie Purser - Social Democratic Party
Andrew Smith - Rejoin EU

Centre-left:
Kim Leadbeater - Labour
Corey Robinson - Yorkshire Party
Ross Peltier - Green Party

Far left:
George Galloway - Workers Party of Britain
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)

Loonie:
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)

Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance)
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain)

So two new candidates (in green) - one Libertarian and one (other..) loonie, and no Green replacement candidate. The Heritage Party is the most moderate of the right wing populist options, followed by UKIP. But it's unclear if they can attract a sizable number of Halloran voters, the others are likely too extreme. UKIP is a mess and a shadow of its former self, and the others are all micro parties.

[Lord Halifax]

It's still not clear whether the Heavy Woollen District Independents are standing, is it?

No. For what it's worth Halloran's latest facebook post is very dismissive of the Tories.