UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[icc]

David Frost isn’t well known, so probably yes.

[icc]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

There's a story in the i suggesting that the Tories may have pulled out as of early this morning.

What would be the point of pulling out? Not like they're going to send activists from Devon up to Wakefield ...

[icc]

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.

And it has been claimed quite reliably that a significant number of postal votes went astray there - as with a contest in Andover with a sub-10% turnout despite it being quite keenly fought between the Tories and LibDems (the latter won)

I wonder whether the latter ends up in an Election Court? Obviously the former won't as the outcome was rather lopsided, but...

The margins weren't all that different in terms of raw votes (which, after all, is what matters here).

Both seats are up again in May anyway, and in neither case is the composition of the council meaningfully affected, so I'd be surprised if anyone bothered with a petition.

[icc]

One would expect the SNP by-election machine to be rather more polished than Labour's though, even now.

[icc]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

Lord Ashcroft faking polls to push a narrative? Who could’ve seen that coming from the esteemed tax cheat. A man who called the PM a pig er because he was denied a job in the Foreign Office? Lying?

In fairness I don’t think this is a ‘fake’ poll. Ashcroft’s polling has always been non-partisan - it’s just terrible. His polls are often very wrong but not in a consistent direction.

[icc]

I would go further than others. Labour shouldn’t just be winning this, they should be doing so comfortably if the polls are remotely accurate.

Though a by-election is much tougher for Labour than a GE in this context as they can’t use the ‘give us a majority’ messaging which will be the centrepiece of their Scottish campaign.

[icc]

LibDems online are still pretty relentless in their spin that they are the front runners in Mid Beds and Labour are nowhere ("they are only campaigning in Flitwick" is one suspiciously frequent claim)

If so, you might expect one of their famous "leaked private polls" to boost this line wouldn't you?

Meanwhile the bizarre Labour spin is that the Lib Dems are fighting the by-election in a way similar to a homophobic family values campaign.

Also worth remembering that the Lib Dems have never leaked an internal poll this early (and with good reason - opinion in by-elections moves fast).

[icc]

Also worth remembering that the Lib Dems have never leaked an internal poll this early (and with good reason - opinion in by-elections moves fast).

Pull the other one, it has bells on. The Lib Dems do not leak "internal polls" because they have a deep interest in putting out accurate information about public information. They are not a polling company. They do it to send two messages to the electorate - firstly that they can win, and secondly that it really is too close to call, honest, and they really need you to get down the polling station on Thursday. These are messages you can put out at any time and you can do it as often as the electorate finds it credible.

Sure, no-one’s claiming there’s no ulterior motive, but you actually have to have the data / poll result if you want to put it out. Or I suppose we could all follow the lead of Labour’s campaign in North Shropshire and put out totally made up numbers.

[icc]

Isn't that exactly the point? The campaign has been going on long enough that the Lib Dems will have some evidence about how well they're doing. If it's not being shared, that is a choice.

But at this stage in the campaign you wouldn't expect to be able to show a poll with you neck and neck. Shifts take a bit of time to work through - hence why Lib Dems haven't produced polls this early in other by-elections (and the continuing shift means the poll is well out of date by election day).

[icc]

If at this stage in the campaign, you don't have canvass returns (which is what most of the "leaks" have been), then you don't have a campaign.

Moreover, the fact that the figures are frequently out of date is besides the point. The point is to drive the narrative, not to check them for accuracy after the election - if that was the point, then the methodology is clearly rubbish, because it always finds the Lib Dems just narrowly behind in contests they go on to win by more than 5000 votes...

No they’ve been internal polling for the most part, not canvass returns. No-one said that the party didn’t have any canvass returns, I said that opinion changes fast in a by-election, so polling in a seat set to go Lib Dem might still show a decent Tory lead a few weeks out - it’s the direction of travel which is important, but obviously to wouldn’t release that.

[icc]

With a week to go, the LibDems have wheeled out their tried and tested Dead Russian Gambit in Mid Beds. Let's see if it works this time.

What’s this referring to?

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

[icc]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

[icc]

Monstrous swing. The parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town put a hard limit on things, and yet nevertheless...

Btw, as far as social and economic structures are concerned, the area has changed quite substantially since the 1990s (not in Labour's favour at all) and Pincher had a 2:1 lead over Labour in 2015.

Just to note - the parts of the constituency outside Tamworth town have always been included in the seat. This isn't relevant to comparisons with previous results.

[icc]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

Lol

Very much the Tories' Eastleigh 2013

[icc]

Between here and the likely Labour romp in Blackpool, are the Lib Dems really going to sit out a set of by-elections?

They'll just put up paper candidates, and provide the bare-minimum funding. Enough to print some leaflets, and rent one minivan so they can bus in enough activists for a wee photo-op near the end of the camapign.

Tbh - they'll probably spend at least as much time in Solihull (in the off-chance that one actually gets triggered there) as they will in either/both of these seats.

Solihull would definitely be an interesting by-election because the Lib Dems really are much weaker locally now than when they were winning the seat. (I think they actually have no councillors within the boundaries of the parliamentary seat; the Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in Meriden.) I wonder if the Greens would seriously contest.

The Lib Dem seats on Solihull council are all in the Solihull parliamentary constituency. They don't have any councillors in Meriden.

[icc]

Given the circumstances, the polling and the demographics, Reform ought to be doing better than "touching double figures" IMO.

https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1758289842851783136

Not to mention the fact they fought this hard. More evidence that their polling numbers aren’t real if this tweet is accurate.

[icc]

I wonder how many of Ali's votes were cast after he was drop-kicked? I suspect not many. It does seem to settle the question of what happens when a candidate is disendorsed in a by-election as opposed to a GE.

Wasn’t it established that the suspension occurred before postal votes were sent out.