UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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  UK By-elections thread, 2021- (search mode)
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vileplume
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« on: March 19, 2021, 06:19:25 PM »

Hartlepool is an absolute tossup as to who will win

Talk about expectations management.

This seat was easily won by Corbyn even in 2019, and when allegations against the Labour candidate were already known IIRC. BXP voters, who couldn't even bring themselves to vote Tory with that party running on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket, are very unlikely to vote Tory now; in this part of the world they are by and large ex-Labour. Add to that government by-election gains being rarer than hen's teeth.

This seat by all rights should be a Labour hold, even if they have troubles at local level. I doubt it would be fatal to Starmer's leadership, but failure to hold Hartlepool when a more toxic leader managed it would seriously undermine his position. You can imagine the crowing from the nuttiest parts of Labour.

One potential huge issue for Labour is that the by-election is likely to be held on local election day (6th May) where the extremely popular Tory mayor of the Tees Valley (which includes Hartlepool), Ben Houchen, is expected to cruise to a landslide re-election. It's likely that he will have at least some coat tails which will significantly boost the Tory candidate's chances of gaining the seat.

Whilst it is true that Corbyn's Labour held the seat in 2019, that was only really because of a split in the right/leave vote. Had the Brexit Party instead stood down, or not made an effort, Hartlepool would've fallen to the Tories like much of the rest of the fabled 'Red Wall'. Labour's choice of candidate is not great either and he gives the Tories plenty of ammunition, particularly due to his stance on Brexit (he's been frantically deleting Tweets, which is never a good look) but also on supposed sexism (Shami Chakrabarti has already said he should be replaced).

Personally I would put my money on a Tory gain, Labour isn't out of it, but this has Copeland redux written all over it.
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vileplume
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Posts: 540
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2021, 09:20:44 AM »

Just to provide some numbers here, though this is better suited for the UK main thread, the Liberal-Democrats look like they will have close to a net zero councilor change after Thursday. This is of course not because the party has done exceptionally well defending their seats, but rather the party has churned through results and "realigned" to reflect the fact it now does best with posh generally southern Remainers.

Excluding some areas where the Lib-Dems gained cause they were simply one party of many gaining at the expense of a scandal tarred local govt, a clear trend emerges. he Lib-Dems lost their constituency seat in Wales, lost a list seat in Scotland, and lost 16 seats in Cornwall. There is no more Celtic fringe. The Lib-Dems are additionally down in places like Sefton, Norfolk, and Portsmouth where the party once had relevance nationally. They have gained in places Hertfordshire, Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Gloustershire, and Buckinghamshire. These places the Lib-Dems always were the opposition to the Conservatives, but the micro-realignment has allowed the party to flip Tory councilor seats, despite the Conservatives large lead nationally.

Of course, if a realignment is the be immediately beneficial, the gains should outweigh the losses...

Some of this narrative his is true but it is important to take it with a very heavy pinch of salt. The Tories did very well in these Southern councils the last time they were fought back in 2017, so a reversion to the mean was always likely. Buckinghamshire for example the Lib Dems have a measly 15 seats to the Conservatives 113, that is no evidence of a realignment there whatsoever. In Gloucestershire they failed to gain 2 very Remain seats off the Tories in Cheltenham and even lost one of their own seats in the town to them. In Surrey they did make 5 net gains but it could be argued that considering how scandal plagued/incompetent the Tory administration was (and probably will continue to be) it could be argued that the results here were merely a combination of this and a natural reversion to the mean after an amazing 2017 performance. They also lost seats in Winchester, a strongly Remain district.

Where there does appear to be a very clear trend is in (southern) Cambridgeshire and parts of Oxfordshire, which is presumably because of the university effect. In both counties the Tory performance typically improves the further from the city you get, even if the area is still posh/Remainy.  I'd be surprised if South Cambridgeshire didn't go Lib Dem next time, although in Oxfordshire the Tories are helped by the fact that other than Oxford West and Abingdon (which is already Lib Dem) the area most influenced by the city is split up into multiple seats. For example Carterton and environs will likely bail the Tories out in the Witney constituency even if the areas closer to the city continue to trend Lib Dem.
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vileplume
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2021, 12:03:54 PM »

In Oxfordshire at least there is also huge controversy over planning issues! These things matter in local politics.

This too. Though there does seem to be some movement away from the Tories in the greater Oxford area, though not anywhere near to the degree that the county results would suggest.
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vileplume
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Posts: 540
« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2021, 03:09:26 PM »
« Edited: May 10, 2021, 03:55:33 PM by vileplume »

While not sure would work seat wise, do people see Green party support holding up as depending on which poll you believe, many show Labour + Greens ahead of Tories or at least close.  Only problem is if local elections give any hints, Green support is heavily concentrated in areas Labour already strong thus I am not sure even if all Green voters went Labour would be enough, but still wondering if you will get tactical voting and many Greens uniting behind Labour much like many UKIP/Brexit party have now coalesced behind Tories.  Liberal Democrats are a centrist so I am not sure they really hurt any party.  It seems looking back to 2010 which was their last decent election, in some places their vote swung heavily Labour like university towns, but in other areas like Southwest swung mostly behind the Tories thus not sure an alliance with them will work.

It's unlikely it'll hold up in a General Election but if it does it'll mean Starmer has done something to really, really annoy the urban left as that's where any increased support in a general election context will primarily come from. However even in this scenario it's unlikely to translate into seats as most constituencies in the 'Muesli Belt' also have large, often ethnically diverse council estates which in general elections are near-monolithic Labour block votes. Their best bet for a second seat would be Bristol West (one of the few constituencies that genuinely adored Corbyn) and they'll be aided in this by favourable boundary changes, which due to electorate rises is likely to remove the much poorer council estate heavy wards of Easton and Lawrence Hill (I know the Greens can do well in these wards locally but in a general election context they're unmovably Labour). However, they were over 28k behind Labour last time and it would be an absolutely massive ask for them to overturn that in one election.

In local elections the Greens can do well in rural Tory areas (e.g. Suffolk) but this is usually due to them running quasi-independent campaigns, campaigning on NIMBYism or appealing to small town, localist (critics would say parochial) instincts that exist in such areas. However this will not be repeated in General elections as the Greens won't run the type of green campaign that would go down well in these areas: anti-globalisation, sceptical of immigration, protectionist/buy local, anti-development etc.
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vileplume
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Posts: 540
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2021, 06:31:07 PM »

RIP James Brokenshire, 53 is no age at all.

Regarding the by-election to replace him, it'll likely be an easy Tory hold and and the Lib Dems are unlikely to do anything here other than add a few % to their vote share. It's not a demographically friendly seat for them for reasons others have stated, they have very little local presence here, aren't doing well in the opinion polls nationally and are starting from a very poor third. Labour does a some base support here in the poorer areas (unlike in Chesham and Amersham where the little they had was 'promiscuous progressives') so will actually put up a fight to hold on to their vote whilst Lib Dem sympathetic Tory voters (not that there's many here in the first place) don't tend to flip if they perceive Labour as having even the remotest chance of being competitive.

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vileplume
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Posts: 540
« Reply #5 on: October 10, 2021, 07:22:40 AM »

Labour have had the decency not to campaign in this seat beforehand to this news.

Other parties, who shall remain nameless, were widely reported to have campaigned when MPs have been on their deathbed in the past.


Well tbf Old Bexley and Sidcup is not a seat Labour have the remotest chance of winning or coming close to doing so. Campaigning before an MP had actually passed in a utter no hope seat like this one would just be terrible PR for no material gain. If it was a seat they could actually win I expect Labour would have been readying their campaign prior to the MP passing (likewise with the Tories), maybe they wouldn't have been as blatant about it as those certain other parties but they'd be preparing (as morbid as that sounds).
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vileplume
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Posts: 540
« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2021, 11:54:34 AM »

Famously/infamously this was her candidate application form, note no. 5:



Love her misspelling of Poplar and Limehouse haha Cheesy
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