UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Cassius]

All in all the Ali selection was actually rather fortuitous for Labour, given that by effectively not running a candidate they’ve managed to avoid the spectacle of a straight loss (or perhaps more likely a Heywood & Middletonesque embarrassingly close shave) to Galloway and can now claim (as they’re doing) that they would have easily won had they been able to run a ‘normal’ candidate.

[Torrain]

I'm usually pretty relaxed with FPTP being maintained - but results like last night are the sort of thing that could tempt me to support some sort of voting reform (even if Galloway would have won regardless) if it was on the table.

If we ever end up with a Lib-Lab pact in power that triggers a referendum on some sort of AV system, or something akin to the instant-runoff system Australia uses for the House of Representatives, I'm no longer certain I'd oppose it.

Definitely still in favour of small, single-member constituencies though.

[Wiswylfen]

An absolute nightmare of a coalition here...

Objectively talented as he is, Galloway is losing his touch: this isn't Scotland, none of his target voters care about self-ID. He'd have been better off talking about immigration. Anyway I wonder how Gillian Duffy voted: last I read, she's still alive and living in the constituency.

She was a drinking pal of Danczuk when he was MP IIRC.

On that note, an absolutely atrocious result for Reform and a hilarious meltdown to follow it. Their official account is very subtly tweeting about 'extremist anti-Semitic lawmakers'--this being George Galloway, bill to follow--while Tice's tantrum has been met by the revelation that, apparently, he invited Galloway to stand as a Reform candidate.

[Coldstream]

Labour needs to hold its nerve and not waste unnecessary funds and activists in Rochdale in the GE, we’ll win with a 10k+ majority anyway just like Bradford in 2015.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean the most comforting thing for Labour is it shows the might of our campaign machine, simply disowning Ali made him unviable.

Let's be precise - disowning him *and* effectively leaving him without any campaign at all. In other words this was the genuine article, not the SNP's basically fake disavowal of Hanvey at the last GE.

[Torrain]

In other words this was the genuine article, not the SNP's basically fake disavowal of Hanvey at the last GE.

That did leave a bitter taste in the mouth. Feels like they got their comeuppance though, given how he repaid their defence of him (and readmittance to the party), in 2021.


_{Pictured, the SNP closing ranks to defend Neale Hanvey, circa 2019.}

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour needs to hold its nerve and not waste unnecessary funds and activists in Rochdale in the GE, we’ll win with a 10k+ majority anyway just like Bradford in 2015.

I'm not as sure as that, if only due to the short timescale for even a late 2024 GE - which means less time for GG to disillusion and p*** off the locals in his past inimitable fashion.

But yes, Labour should treat it as a bit of a sideshow - not least because the new MP won't like it.

[Coldstream]

Labour needs to hold its nerve and not waste unnecessary funds and activists in Rochdale in the GE, we’ll win with a 10k+ majority anyway just like Bradford in 2015.

I'm not as sure as that, if only due to the short timescale for even a late 2024 GE - which means less time for GG to disillusion and p*** off the locals in his past inimitable fashion.

But yes, Labour should treat it as a bit of a sideshow - not least because the new MP won't like it.

To paraphrase Donald Dewar, people take an instant dislike to George Galloway to save time. They’ll hate him more than enough by the time of the GE - but even if he ends up being a good MP (which would require a brain transplant at least) it won’t matter, they want to vote Labour in Rochdale. Sure, the local party should put out a grovelling message about how we failed to offer them a choice, but that’s it - the temptation will be to make it a target seat to punish Galloway (which I’m all for), but we don’t need to, we’ll walk it.

[Harlow]

May be interesting to see if Galloway actually runs in Rochdale in a GE or chooses a seat more favourable to him.

Which seats would be more favorable to him? One of the seats he won in the past with higher % of Muslims?

[TheTide]

It's amazing that the world hasn't collapsed under the weight of Galloway's ego already. I suspect it might after that speech Sunak has just delivered.

[Coldstream]

May be interesting to see if Galloway actually runs in Rochdale in a GE or chooses a seat more favourable to him.

Which seats would be more favorable to him? One of the seats he won in the past with higher % of Muslims?

Not one of the ones he won in the past, because they’ll remember how useless he is. But somewhere like Hall Green (Respect came close in 2010 and had it not been for the Lib Dem’s Yaqoob probably would have won) seems like a better shot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mmm... relations with certain key people became very difficult when Respect broke up (I don't know the details), so he might have his reasons to avoid East Birmingham.

[JimJamUK]

Mmm... relations with certain key people became very difficult when Respect broke up (I don't know the details), so he might have his reasons to avoid East Birmingham.

But it is the sort of place with an unpopular local Labour council and was the epicentre of ‘anti-woke’ Muslim protests…

[CumbrianLefty]

One little commented on result in Rochdale was how poorly the "anti-grooming" Independent did.

Galloway scooping up a lot of their potential votes?

[YL]

Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.

Wellingborough The constituency gains Irthlingborough from Corby, and loses Wollaston and Bozeat to South Northamptonshire and rural parts of Earls Barton ward to Daventry, and is renamed as Wellingborough & Rushden. The changes are not major but help Labour, and while the swing needed from 2019 is still big you wonder how quickly the Conservatives will be able to recover from their atrocious performance in the by-election. At the moment I would guess that Gen Kitchen will hold on.

Kingswood This constituency is effectively abolished. The largest part, including Kingswood proper, goes to the revived Bristol North East; these parts are the most Labour parts of the seat, the Bristol wards included are also mostly Labour-inclined, and the new seat is estimated as having been comfortably Labour even in 2019. (Though presumably not in 1983 or 1987.)  Damien Egan had alreadby been selected as the Labour candidate there before Skidmore's resignation. The second largest part goes to North East Somerset & Hanham, where the Tory candidate will be Jacob Rees-Mogg, and I doubt the by-election will have much effect on Labour's chances of winning that. A smaller area goes to Filton & Bradley Stoke, and again I don't see the by-election changing much.

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

One other update: the Tories won that council by-election in Hazlemere. Their vote share wasn't very convincing (a lot of votes went to an independent candidate) but it does suggest that that boundary change was unhelpful for the Chesham & Amersham Lib Dems.

[CumbrianLefty]

A lot of people predicted that the Labour leadership would go into a blind panic if Galloway won - it is maybe notable that this really hasn't been the case.

[Tintrlvr]

One other update: the Tories won that council by-election in Hazlemere. Their vote share wasn't very convincing (a lot of votes went to an independent candidate) but it does suggest that that boundary change was unhelpful for the Chesham & Amersham Lib Dems.

I don’t think much can be taken from the Hazlemere result. A strong independent ran the Tories very close, and the LDs did gain a lot from previously being in the single digits. Without an independent, it might very well have gone LD.

[TheTide]

Here's the last time Galloway was 'sworn in' to Parliament:

A few things to note about it are:

- His sponsors are the late Sir Peter Tapsell (the then-Father of the House and the last MP who was a successful candidate in the 1959 election) and...I'm drawing a blank on the other MP, someone will probably fill me in.

- Galloway is made to say his affirmation (affirmation being an interesting choice for a believer in God, I suppose it has something to do with his Republicanism?) so that the 'House can hear'.

- Michael Gove can be seen and heard giving Galloway his congratulations.

- Alan Duncan (who I think shares some of Galloway's views) seems quite jovial towards Galloway as he heads towards the Speaker's Chair.

- There is quite a loud chant of 'hear hear' as Galloway walks towards the Chair, not something usually heard on these kinds of occasions, or at least not to that extent.

- Galloway and Bercow have a seemingly nice conversation, it would have been interesting to know what they chatted about. Do I notice a very slight grimace on Bercow's face just after the conversation ends?

[MaxQue]

Here's the last time Galloway was 'sworn in' to Parliament:

A few things to note about it are:

- His sponsors are the late Sir Peter Tapsell (the then-Father of the House and the last MP who was a successful candidate in the 1959 election) and...I'm drawing a blank on the other MP, someone will probably fill me in.

It's apparently Gerry Sutcliffe, his constituency neighbour (Bradford South, 1994 to 2015). Low level PPC/non-Cabinet minister during Blair/Brown, Burnham campaign manager in the 2010 leadership race.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He was Vice-Chamberlain of the Household for a while. It's a rather interesting post: the holder is usually the fourth ranking Government Whip, but also has the responsibility (no, duty) to provide the Monarch with the latest parliamentary gossip including things that, as they say, do not make the papers. Especially those.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

Boundary changes remove the Spotland & Falinge ward* which is unlikely to be to Galloway's advantage.

_{*Meaning that there will be enough of the town no longer in the constituency to be vaguely surprised they're not renaming it as Rochdale East & Littleborough.}

[AustralianSwingVoter]

He was Vice-Chamberlain of the Household for a while. It's a rather interesting post: the holder is usually the fourth ranking Government Whip, but also has the responsibility (no, duty) to provide the Monarch with the latest parliamentary gossip including things that, as they say, do not make the papers. Especially those.

Informing the monarch on daily parliamentary gossip? A post you'd surely give to someone well informed and rather in the know. So I wonder who the Tories have currently filled it with...

Anderson has said that he had no knowledge or interest in politics during his military career. For example, at the time he went to Northern Ireland, he says that he had no knowledge of the background of The Troubles. He first developed an interest in a political career around 2005, but did not act on it for another nine years, when, after discussing it with his wife, he bought a book called Politics For Dummies and googled "how to become an MP". He voted for the Conservative Party in 2015, because in Hereford "you don't vote for Labour" and said there was no one else running. In fact, several other party candidates stood in Hereford and South Herefordshire at the 2015 general election. Anderson says that he did not know anything else about the political parties.[5] He joined the Conservative Party in 2016.[9] He had previously ridiculed party activists, but found that although he did not always have the depth of knowledge required, he enjoyed speaking to voters on the doorstep.[5]

[YL]

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

Boundary changes remove the Spotland & Falinge ward* which is unlikely to be to Galloway's advantage.

_{*Meaning that there will be enough of the town no longer in the constituency to be vaguely surprised they're not renaming it as Rochdale East & Littleborough.}

Ah but then what would they have called the other seat?

I don't think the boundary change actually makes that much difference, though I agree that what difference it does make is not in Galloway's favour. It does make a difference in the aforementioned other seat, at least as far as the 2019 notional is concerned.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but then what would they have called the other seat?

Since when have such considerations been an issue to the Boundary Commission?

I don't think the boundary change actually makes that much difference, though I agree that what difference it does make is not in Galloway's favour. It does make a difference in the aforementioned other seat, at least as far as the 2019 notional is concerned.

Yes, its demographic balance (in terms of the factors that will be preeminent like it or not, and I do not) is about average for the constituency, which means that removing it for no replacement tilts it a little away from its present balance rather than transforming everything. But worth noting.

[CumbrianLefty]

One other update: the Tories won that council by-election in Hazlemere. Their vote share wasn't very convincing (a lot of votes went to an independent candidate) but it does suggest that that boundary change was unhelpful for the Chesham & Amersham Lib Dems.

I don’t think much can be taken from the Hazlemere result. A strong independent ran the Tories very close, and the LDs did gain a lot from previously being in the single digits. Without an independent, it might very well have gone LD.

Yeah, the Tories got lucky on a fairly low vote share.

If anything, the other Bucks byelection that week was a bit more disappointing for the LibDems.