UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Riley (LBC) saying that the independent David Tully has done well. Probably means not much more than a saved deposit.

That's what I'd expected when I first saw that, but there are some rumours that he might be challenging Ali for second.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Saull (BBC) saying that the 'central areas' are being counted and Galloway is performing well as expected. Not exactly precinct level reporting but about as specific as you usually get here.

[YL]

Henry Riley is now reporting that Tully's team say he has come a "comfortable second".

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Henry Riley is now reporting that Tully's team say he has come a "comfortable second".

The fact that this is the second solid rumour/report after 'Galloway has won comfortably' suggests that the latter is probably accurate. The barrier separating 'dodgy early rumours/reports/spin' and 'this is how it's going to turn out' is probably around midnight in most overnight counts.

[Harlow]

Henry Riley is now reporting that Tully's team say he has come a "comfortable second".

Well that’s quite a shock, but an interesting one.

[YL]

Turnout 39.7%. Not bad in the circumstances.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/mshafiquk/status/1763352178586968114?s=20

[YL]

And now Henry Riley has a suggestion that the Lib Dems have come third!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout 39.7%. Not bad in the circumstances.

Suggests that the high number of postal votes applied for were actually used.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Tom Harwood (who makes Owen Jones resemble a centenarian) of GB News says that the declaration could be within the next hour.

[YL]

Reform UK really not happy and making various allegations.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Salt required, but Farage says some boxes are 95% Galloway.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1763389285326004511?t=qCxGq0ufyBJQQHspuX...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

GEORGE GALLOWAY: BYELECTION KING

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/harry_horton/status/1763389285326004511?t=qCxGq0ufyBJQQHspuX...

"INDEPENDANT"

[Joe Republic]

We need a complete and total shutdown of Rochdale until we can figure out what is going on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Azhar Ali got just a bit less than 3,000 votes.

[YL]

Rochdale

Galloway (Workers Party) 12335 (39.7%, new)
Tully 6638 (21.3%, new)
Ellison (Con) 3731 (12.0%, -19.2%)
Ali (Lab*) 2402 (7.7%, -43.9%)
Donaldson (Lib Dem) 2164 (7.0%, -0.0%)
Danczuk (Reform) 1968 (6.3%, -1.8%)
W Howarth 523 (1.7%, new)
Coleman 455 (1.5%, new)
Otten (Green*) 436 1.4%, -0.7%)
M Howarth 246 (0.8%, new)
Subortna (OMRLP) 209 (0.7%, new)
         
Majority 5697
Workers Party gain from Lab   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Galloway is praising the returning officer effusively. However, he said the councilors "have to go".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well that looks rather... er... racialized. Though it was always going to.

[Wiswylfen]

I will now accept my accolades. I tried to tell you what was going on. I really tried. This looks like a landslide, folks.

[Harlow]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

[Wiswylfen]

Well that looks rather... er... racialized. Though it was always going to.

The turnout and his share of the vote are both high enough that he must have won a fair number of white voters. To the extent Reform tried to polarise the electorate along those lines, it instead seems plausible that more of their target voters voted for Galloway than them.

[Oryxslayer]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

One has to imagine he's now going to be approached by the Greens for some seat, since they basically backed him here with results.

[Wiswylfen]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

One has to imagine he's now going to be approached by the Greens for some seat, since they basically backed him here with results.

They backed the guy who got 1.5%.