UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[JimJamUK]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

Emphasis on the word ‘history’, as the coalfield closed so early and the suburbanisation of Bristol is so dominant that it has had basically no electoral impact for decades now.

[Wiswylfen]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

Emphasis on the word ‘history’, as the coalfield closed so early and the suburbanisation of Bristol is so dominant that it has had basically no electoral impact for decades now.

Not that long ago. It was still being worked into my grandfather's lifetime. Though the family had left for Northumberland by way of Durham around the turn of the century.

[Coldstream]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

Part of its also going in to marginal seat Filton & Bradley Stoke.

I’m heading to Kingswood today to see what happens.

[Blair]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

[YL]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

Part of its also going in to marginal seat Filton & Bradley Stoke.

I’m heading to Kingswood today to see what happens.

Indeed, I forgot Emersons Green, which does indeed go to F & BS.

Might Conservatopia be tempted to stand?

[YL]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

The West of England mayoralty isn't up until 2025.  I think Norris can stand in a by-election; I don't think there's any rule stopping someone being both a Metro Mayor and an MP, as long as the mayoralty doesn't have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers, which this one doesn't.  (Indeed Dan Jarvis was an MP throughout his term as Mayor of South Yorkshire, not that that's the happiest precedent IMO.)

A placeholder strikes me as a bad idea.

[Joe Republic]

I recall a certain individual spent the last year of his mayoralty of London as an MP at the same time.

[xelas81]

Difference is that Kingswood/Bristol NE is not remotely close to Lewisham.

[JimJamUK]

Reform UK have announced they will not stand in ‘protest’ against the “disgraceful abuse” of the soon to be former member.

Given current polling would get them 10%, and UKIP would have done a lot better in a by-election, you can read into that what you will.

[Alcibiades]

Reform UK have announced they will not stand in ‘protest’ against the “disgraceful abuse” of the soon to be former member.

Given current polling would get them 10%, and UKIP would have done a lot better in a by-election, you can read into that what you will.

And indeed, UKIP got 15% in the constituency in 2015…

[Conservatopia]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

Part of its also going in to marginal seat Filton & Bradley Stoke.

I’m heading to Kingswood today to see what happens.

Indeed, I forgot Emersons Green, which does indeed go to F & BS.

Might Conservatopia be tempted to stand?

One would think I'd fail the background check but looking at the current crop of Tory MPs maybe not...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Conservatives have selected their candidate for Wellingborough. And an interesting choice it is.

[YL]

The Conservatives have selected their candidate for Wellingborough. And an interesting choice it is.

I suppose it means that Bone won't be standing as an independent.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sounds straight of of the Back to Basics era in all honesty.

[YL]

Of course what this by-election now needs is Mrs Bone standing as an independent.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Of course what this by-election now needs is Mrs Bone standing as an independent.

It would be hard for her to win.

[Blair]

A sign that that they have played politics on easy mode for 20 years. None of the other main parties would be so arrogant to try this.

[Torrain]

I’ve been preoccupied with family issues for most of the past week. But I’d like to drop by to double check I’m not going insane, and this story *is* real - they’re running the girlfriend!?!

Bone was recalled over sleaze and sexual harassment, then tried (successfully) to intimidate the party into picking the woman he with whom cheated on the renowned Mrs Bone? And Ric Holden and Tom Pursglove showed up to celebrate her selection as a triumph?!

We’ve got sleaze, sex and blackmail, and the writ hasn’t even been moved yet.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Perhaps they know they're going to loose and wanna humiliate him a bit more.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't know if incumbency carries as much value in Britain as in Australia, but I'd think getting a local MP entrenched, even for under a year, would markedly help Labour's chances against Moggy in NE Somerset & Hanham come the general election.

[YL]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

I thought that the reason for the mention of Norris was that there had already been a suggestion that he might stand against Rees-Mogg in NE Somerset & Hanham.  He was MP for the old Wansdyke constituency, which was the predecessor to Rees-Mogg's current seat but also included some areas on the Gloucestershire side of the Avon.  (Bizarrely, the 1983-97 version extended as far north as Emersons Green and almost to Frenchay, though Norris took over in 1997 when it only included Bitton and Hanham Abbots, immediately north of the river.)

PS Skidmore wrote to Jeremy Hunt today formally resigningrequesting appointment to Northstead or the Chiltern Hundreds.

[Torrain]

And he's gone:
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1744430339408142341

[YL]

After nearly seven months of Johnson and then Dorries, that's got to be an upgrade for the Chiltern Hundreds.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

I thought that the reason for the mention of Norris was that there had already been a suggestion that he might stand against Rees-Mogg in NE Somerset & Hanham. He was MP for the old Wansdyke constituency, which was the predecessor to Rees-Mogg's current seat but also included some areas on the Gloucestershire side of the Avon.  (Bizarrely, the 1983-97 version extended as far north as Emersons Green and almost to Frenchay, though Norris took over in 1997 when it only included Bitton and Hanham Abbots, immediately north of the river.)

PS Skidmore wrote to Jeremy Hunt today formally resigningrequesting appointment to Northstead or the Chiltern Hundreds.

I know, but the fact he is in his current post until 2025 could complicate things there. Has he shown any indications whether he will stand again or not?