UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

And for Blackpool South:

LAB 59
CON 27
RFM 9
GRN 2
LDM 1
OTH 2

Massive Labour majority of over thirty points as the Conservative vote collapses to its lowest level in the constituency's history. Turnout of around 30%. I think Reform will do decently: this is, after all, Blackpool, and they do seem to have some local organisation. Again, Green vote steady while the Lib Dem vote collapses.

[JimJamUK]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

To elaborate and so that I am not misinterpreted:

Obviously the 'rural' parts of Tamworth and those of Selby and Ainsty are in little ways comparable. I use it here only to indicate that Wellingborough lacks both the truly rural, agricultural parts of Selby where the Vale of York collides with the Humberhead Levels and the 'rural' (read: heavily Conservative-voting, high-turnout, affluent villages) element of Tamworth. Irchester, for instance, has an industrial heritage which has left a decent base for Labour to rely on there.

As reasoning would indicate (in the absence of the detailed results we do not have) there was less of a swing to Labour in those areas (and more of one in the towns). In Selby this will have been because despite how unpopular the Conservatives may be parties other than Labour are most likely to benefit from that. In Tamworth this will be because the people in those sorts of places have not been in any significant way impacted by the material effects of Conservative government.

[CumbrianLefty]

I do suspect the Tory vote in Blackpool will hold up a bit better than that.

(and this year's local elections back that up)

[Wiswylfen]

I do suspect the Tory vote in Blackpool will hold up a bit better than that.

(and this year's local elections back that up)

Local elections and parliamentary elections are of course very different things, as the Conservatives found in Tynemouth and Sunderland. It may be a sign of a greater sentiment extending beyond local issues and to have results at a parliamentary election, or it might just be the product of good organisation and a willingness to vote for specific candidates. In the absence of anything like ULEZ did for us, I'm assuming the latter.

[YL]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

Someone on Vote UK said that the word from the count in Selby & Ainsty was that Labour carried Ouseburn division.  That may be because the Green candidate, who is a councillor there, took some disaffected Tory votes which were never going Labour and so effectively split the anti-Labour vote, but it still suggests that Labour did OK in the rural part of that seat.  Also, the Tory results in the more rural by-elections this Parliament have been especially terrible, though of course the main beneficiaries have been the Lib Dems.

I'm not going to attempt to predict Wellingborough until we know for sure that it is happening and whether or not Bone is standing (and who for).

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

Someone on Vote UK said that the word from the count in Selby & Ainsty was that Labour carried Ouseburn division.  That may be because the Green candidate, who is a councillor there, took some disaffected Tory votes which were never going Labour and so effectively split the anti-Labour vote, but it still suggests that Labour did OK in the rural part of that seat.  Also, the Tory results in the more rural by-elections this Parliament have been especially terrible, though of course the main beneficiaries have been the Lib Dems.

I'm not going to attempt to predict Wellingborough until we know for sure that it is happening and whether or not Bone is standing (and who for).

Labour doing (more than) alright in rural areas--though I have my doubts as to whether they did win Ouseburn*--I believe. There is a rural backlash against the Conservative Party. I just believe that it isn't as large as that in towns like Selby and Wellingborough.

*The predecessors to Ouseburn routinely recorded Conservative vote-shares of around 70%, one even reaching 80% (admittedly in a two-party contest against Labour). As I said, local elections aren't parliamentary elections, but every indication is that this is usually staunchly Conservative territory, if the sort that is occasionally willing to vote for independents and non-Labour candidates willing to put the work in for a personal vote. I personally believe the Conservatives still won it, if with a drastically-reduced majority.

[TheTide]

Talking of Blackpool...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-67835079

[Torrain]

Per the Independent, Peter Bone in talks to stand for Reform UK in the by-election for his old seat.

Has to be a wind-up, surely. Making an old man fired for exposing himself to his staffers the new face of the party would be cosmically ill-judged.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though if he still has (despite everything) something of a personal vote in the seat, you can sort of understand their reasoning.

[YL]

I agree that there's a considerable downside, but he denies at least the most serious allegations and I suspect that a substantial proportion of their potential vote will be sympathetic to the idea that he's been hard done by.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the notion that he ever had a personal vote in the seat is contentious - it went from a marginal to a very safe seat, but a lot of seats with similar demographics followed the same trajectory and nobody thinks Chris Pincher had a personal vote.

[Blair]

I think the notion that he ever had a personal vote in the seat is contentious - it went from a marginal to a very safe seat, but a lot of seats with similar demographics followed the same trajectory and nobody thinks Chris Pincher had a personal vote.

From what I’ve read the worry is that he’ll take support from the various association figures locally; but seeing as the Conservatives don’t really rely on volunteers as much as Labour it’s unclear what difference could be made.

[TheTide]

Bone almost didn't win the seat in 2005, which would have surely been the end of his Parliamentary ambitions, particularly as he had had multiple failed attempts previously and given the leadership that took over just after the 2005 election.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think the notion that he ever had a personal vote in the seat is contentious - it went from a marginal to a very safe seat, but a lot of seats with similar demographics followed the same trajectory and nobody thinks Chris Pincher had a personal vote.

From what I’ve read the worry is that he’ll take support from the various association figures locally; but seeing as the Conservatives don’t really rely on volunteers as much as Labour it’s unclear what difference could be made.

Bone is quite an active campaigner, but for the most part he has tended not to focus on his seat but on the more marginal territory of Corby & East Northamptonshire. Of course, given that that's a marginal because East Northants is rabidly Tory, and those are the areas which still have a critical mass of campaigners, the bigger issue may be that it'll piss off the membership in Pursglove's seat.

[YL]

Per Michael Crick, the Tories have invited applications to be their candidate in the Wellingborough by-election, with a deadline of 4pm today.  This would suggest that they think it is going to happen.

[Coldstream]

Reform have announced ex-MEP Ben Habib as their candidate for Wellingborough.

Choosing Bone would always have been an odd choice considering their campaign nationally is against Tory sleaze.

[JimJamUK]

Choosing Bone would always have been an odd choice considering their campaign nationally is against Tory sleaze.

Are they really campaigning against sleaze? That seems much more of a Labour thing. Reform are more immigration, tax and net zero.

[IceAgeComing]

Apart from the rigged one, every recall petition has easily passed. Is this a good thing? I'm of two minds.

The interesting thing is that the current system is a weird hybrid; it was originally intended that a recall would happen if you were suspended for longer than 10 days from the House. This often only happened in rather obvious breaches of rules of traditional parliamentary rules e.g not declaring free flights or hotel trips, doing lobbying etc and this had to be investigated by the standards committee and was relatively rare.

But then the ICG scheme was introduced which specifically created a body that could investigate bullying and sexual harassment by MPs; this has in several cases reported and caused MPs to quit rather than face the indignity of a recall.

By my count this is the 10th by election related to members personal conduct

It has never been said but I assumed the hope is that one way to stop this behaviour is that for MPs to realise that breaches of the behaviour code will lead them to lose their jobs; I can't recall all the reports but the committee & body basically now have a button (recommendation of suspension for more than 10 days) which can lead to a by election.

Yes, it’s definitely a record for members resigning or being recalled due to scandal. It’s interesting to look at how the makeup of by-elections has changed over the years; before the expenses scandal (which led directly to the resignations of Michael Martin and Ian Gibson and helped midwife the recall system) it was basically unheard of for MPs to resign because of a scandal. Instead, the principle cause of by-elections tended to be deaths, which have declined dramatically in recent parliaments, presumably due to most MPs being younger/healthier. It would be interesting to have seen how many by-elections the Major government would have had to endure had the modern rules and mores around the personal conduct of MPs been in place then.

Or indeed if it would have impacted election timing: the Major government initially got a majority of 21 and by very early 1997 a combination of defections, whip suspensions and by-election defeats had cost them their majority (believe they lost it on paper but with enough suspended Conservatives by 1996 and then in reality in 1997). Factor in all of the scandals in that parliament; the clear mood of the country and the nature of the Tory party and I suspect you'd have seen an election earlier. They did admittedly have the 13 unionists (9 UUP, 3 DUP plus Kilfedder who was basically a Tory MP) that would have helped but like it'd have taken one unpopular move in Northern Ireland for that to swing and suddenly there's a confidence vote and an election in 1996 instead of 1997.

[CumbrianLefty]

Kilfedder actually died in spring 1995 shortly followed by his micro-party, and the resulting byelection returned an MP who was less reliable for the Tories (at least at that time)

[EastAnglianLefty]

In fact McCartney tried to take the Labour whip, though he was turned down (and it's unlikely he'd have stuck to it for long.)

[YL]

Kilfedder actually died in 1995 together with his micro-party,  and the resulting byelection returned an MP who was less reliable for the Tories (at least at that time)

Those who haven't read it should read Nicholas Whyte's account of the North Down by-election (from, of course, the Alliance point of view).  Perhaps, though, it should have an addendum mentioning the fact that one of the Alliance party workers mentioned in the article is now the constituency's MP.

[YL]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

[TheTide]

It looks like we can add Kingswood to the list of likely by-elections, following Chris Skidmore's statement just now.

It's in the Bristol suburban belt outside the city boundary in South Gloucestershire.  It's a marginal, Tory-held since 2010, with some mining history, and is being split at the next election, with the more Labour bits going into a new (and essentially safe Labour) Bristol North East, and the rest having Jacob Rees-Mogg inflicted on them, at least as Tory candidate.

It's very difficult to resist the temptation to spell his surname 'Skidmark'.