UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[afleitch]

1am declaration should be achievable. SNP have admitted defeat; the only unknown is the margin.

[YL]

It looks like we're in "not even close" territory based on the vibes at the moment.

[Oryxslayer]

It looks like we're in "not even close" territory based on the vibes at the moment.

New prediction for those active in the thread: Torys save their deposit or nah?

Cause it can go both ways. In a Scottish blowout, you would think they all just hopped over to the leading unionist. But there is also the possible of just the expected decline, and it's more the SNP voters staying home or getting turned off by the bad campaign.

[YL]

It looks like we're in "not even close" territory based on the vibes at the moment.

New prediction for those active in the thread: Torys save their deposit or nah?

Cause it can go both ways. In a Scottish blowout, you would think they all just hopped over to the leading unionist. But there is also the possible of just the expected decline, and it's more the SNP voters staying home or getting turned off by the bad campaign.

I will stick with my prediction that there will be enough hard core Tories who won't vote Labour for them to just about hold it.

[Torrain]

David Linden (SNP) is now going with the line that it's a bad thing that Labour are winning over Conservative voters, because it proves they're just *Red Tories*.

I know better than most that there's a history of anti-Tory purity politics in Scotland, but Linden is taking it to some odd places tonight. It's one thing to accuse Labour of being centrist. But saying they're morally wrong for expanding their vote share (and seemingly winning more votes than the SNP) is some wild stuff.

Edit: Newsnight is holding interviews with Linden and Ian Murray, for context.

[Torrain]

Little bit of news creeping in:

• BBC projecting a 1am declaration - Herald's rumour that declaration would come by midnight has been walked back.
• Votes expected to be verified at midnight, so should get turnout number around then.
• Jackie Baillie (Labour Depute Leader) is grinning like it's Christmas, while Keith Brown (SNP Depute Leader) is looking a tad funereal. That's basically in character for both, so don't read *too much* into that, evne if it does confirm some priors.
• Rumours about a lost Conservative deposit abound

Edit: Turnout for the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by election is 37.19%
Total votes: 30,531

To put turnout in perspective, it's just below the 39% average turnout in byelections across this parliament. But higher than the 34% turnout in the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election (the other Scottish by-election in this parliament).

Edit at 00.30: SNP and Labour candidates have both arrived at the count. Anas Sarwar (ScotLab leader) is in attendance, Humza Yousaf will be staying in Edinburgh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From all the language being used and the body language of candidates, it's pretty clear that Labour have won. Ever stronger rumours of a lost deposit for the Conservatives.

[Talleyrand]

Rumors that Labour have won with a 7% majority.

[Oryxslayer]

Sarwar arrived at the count, Yousuf never planned to come.

[YL]

Rumors that Labour have won with a 7% majority.

If that's accurate and the Tory vote has collapsed as much as rumoured, I don't think the SNP will actually be too unhappy: they'd be able to say that Labour only won with Tory votes and their own vote wouldn't have fallen that much.

[YL]

BBC now seem quite confident of a declaration around 1:15.  Seems a bit optimistic to me...

... and it's now 1:32 and they're saying 10 minutes.

[YL]

Didn't catch all the numbers, but that's a big Labour win.

[Oryxslayer]

Votes:

Michael Shanks, Labour: 17,820, 58.6%, (+24.1%)
Katy Loudon, SNP: 8,399, 27.6%, (-16.6%)

_________Lost Deposit_________

Gloria Adebo, Lib-Dem: 895
Bill Bonnar, SSP: 271
Garry Cooke, Ind: 6
Andrew Daly, Ind: 81
Cameron Eadie, Green: 601
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India, Ind: 34
Niall Fraser, Scottish Family Party: 319
Ewan Hoyle, Volt UK: 46
Thomas Kerr, C‌onservative: 1,192, 3.9%, (-11.1%)
Christopher Sermanni, TUSC‌: 178
David Stark, Reform: 403
Colette Walker, Independence for Scotland Party: 207

Labour Gain

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1710094705667567753
Those are Blair-era numbers - and the SNP reduced to *half* the Labour vote. Their vote share is smaller than Labour's 9,446 majority.

Hard to describe that as anything other than a landslide.

[YL]

Lab 17845 (58.6%, +24.1)
SNP 8399 (27.6%, -16.6)
Con 1192 (3.9%, -11.1)
Lib Dem 895 (2.9%, -2.3)
Green 601 (2.0%, new)
Reform UK 403 (1.3%, new)
Family 319 (1.0%, new)
SSP 271 (0.9%, new)
Ind for Scotland 207 (0.7%, new)
TUSC 178 (0.6%, new)
Daly 81 (0.3%, new)
Volt 46 (0.2%, new)
Emperor of India 34 (0.1%, new)
Cooke 6 (0.0%, new)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For those who like historical echoes and who know their political history, this constituency includes about half the old Hamilton constituency, while the other half of the constituency saw the last Labour gain in a Scottish by-election a few years earlier. A very good result: pretty clearly the circumstances of the poll were a factor, but that won't explain everything.

[YL]

Rumors that Labour have won with a 7% majority.

If that's accurate and the Tory vote has collapsed as much as rumoured, I don't think the SNP will actually be too unhappy: they'd be able to say that Labour only won with Tory votes and their own vote wouldn't have fallen that much.

So it was miles out: the majority was actually 31%.  Dreadful result for the SNP, excellent for Labour.

[MaxQue]

Rumors that Labour have won with a 7% majority.

times 4.5.

[Oryxslayer]

Half the gains seemingly came from the Tories, half from the SNP.

The Tory side is an complete collapse likely cause of unique by-election circumstances, but suggests more generally the Unionists are fine voting for each other if there is a duopoly versus the SNP. One wonders now just how many Labour voters will do the same in a Borders or Aberdeenshire GE context.

the SNp side of things is similarly bleak. While the SNP will say that they won't fall quite as hard in a GE or everywhere in the region, it confirms a steep decline. Even if we muffle the SNP and Conservative swings to Labour, this would suggest that Labour would be the largest Scottish party ahead of the SNP.

[YL]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1710097379569893680

[Pericles]

The SNP are in deep trouble, wow. What a great result-each time just keeps getting better and better for Labour!

[Lumine]

It feels so weird cheering for Labour... but man do the Conservatives and the SNP have it coming.

[afleitch]

As posted elsewhere;

I had no idea this thread had been locked. It shouldn't have been. I was half asleep at the time it looks like it was locked. I was closing down a lot of screens, so if it was me, it was genuinely unintentional.

I came on this morning after waking up looking for reactions and didn't see anything after the wee small hours. Then tried to post and the system was telling me it was locked.

So apologies for discussion being inhibited.

I'll share my take on the result a bit later.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

[afleitch]

A shocker of a result, in so much as the seat was never publicly polled so it wasn't quite clear what the mood was. It's clear Labour knew this result was coming despite mischievous expectation management last night. It was a well worked seat during the campaign (and before) and a very successful result for them.

The Tory and SNP result was dire; the SNP clearly got hit by both abstainers and switchers in the hardest way possible. The Tories will say votes to Labour were 'lent' rather than being a sign of the same voter collapse south of the border. But it's clear that's what's happening.

But...

Oh Andrew...

But...

The 'big' by election successes we've already seen in England don't manifest solely based on the swing in average national polling. They are exceptional. That's the point.

If the national polling in Scotland doesn't shift, bar an immediate but transient blip, then that would not be unusual. The expectation that Labour would win being so heavily trailed may take the edge off the top line result, which most won't drill into the way us weirdos do.

For the SNP there's several take-aways.

1. Even if the above turns out to be true, that willing Tory seppuko was so drastic it brings more seats into Labour's contention than a simple swing, even if the SNP recover.

2. Internal battles need to be dealt with more deftly. It's the Achilles heel; there will always be 'if only Kate Forbes fnar fnar' and rent-a-quotes from the awkward squad will always get a sympathetic ear, but there's serious internal issues that need to be addressed prior to the GE.

3. The GE is on the electoral road. It's not the end of it. Even if there's a bruising GE, the SNP are in office till at least 2026 which could be eighteen months to two years into a Labour government. It's perhaps easier to defend it's record if Labour's is proved wanting. If it's not, then it's potentially a harder fall.