UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why didn't Khan, an outspoken and controversial big-city mayor, simply find a bunch of undead Blitz victims to "vote for" Labour?

[brucejoel99]

Miliband bros…our time has come

🙏

[Oryxslayer]

Somerton & Frome Declaration:

Conservative: 10,179
Labour: 1,009
Lib-Dem: 21,187(!)
Greens: 3,944
Christian Peoples: 256
Reform UK: 1,303
Ind: 635
UKIP: 275

He wasn't kidding with that talk of needing a mega-Tractor.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The year's at the spring
And day's at the morn;
Morning's at seven;
The hill-side's dew-pearled;
The lark's on the wing;
The snail's on the thorn:
The Lib Dems hold a rural seat in the West Country—
All's right with the world!

[Pericles]

LibDems know how to win by-elections, what a monster swing again.

[YL]

Lib Dem 54.6%
Con 26.2%
Green 10.2%
Reform UK 3.4%
Lab 2.6%
Mitchell 1.6%
UKIP 0.7%
CPA 0.7%

[Mike88]

Somerton and Frome by-election:

54.6% LibDems (+28.4)
26.2% Tories (-29.6)
10.2% Greens (+5.1)
  2.6% Labour (-10.3)

[YL]

That's a very good Green result.  Indeed it seems to be their best ever by-election result.

29% swing Con to Lib Dem.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Somehow the only seat the Tories kept was Boris’s despite being the least Tory

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1682139131965480960?t=s6fbYHKuLsvx30D...

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Well that certainly explains the Lib Dems confidence.

With a majority like that, I think they hold it in the general.  

[GALeftist]

Deceleration from Uxbridge & South Ruislip:

Lib-Dem: 526
Labour: 13,470
Ind Bell: 91
Ind  77 Joseph: 8
Let London Live indie: 101
Reclaim: 714
SDP: 248
Climate: 49
Green: 893
anti-Ulez ind: 208
Binface: 190
Rejoin EU: 105
raving looney: 102
Christian peoples: 78
No-ULEZ Ind 2: 186
UKIP: 61
Conservative: 13,965

Clear evidence that Labour hasn't pivoted right quite enough yet. Hold the course, Keir

[Sestak]

Somehow the only seat the Tories kept was Boris’s despite being the least Tory

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1682139131965480960?t=s6fbYHKuLsvx30D...

Fairly clearly - even with all the other stuff happening here - Johnson was weaker in this seat than a generic candidate over the last few GEs.

[NYDem]

Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

Can we please just ban him?


On a more serious note, what are the implications of this going forward assuming the results don't change? Are the Tories just going to go on, continuing to shed members until the full five-year term is up? Is there any prospect of another leadership challenge?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why didn't Khan, an outspoken and controversial big-city mayor, simply find a bunch of undead Blitz victims to "vote for" Labour?

Sadly that option only exists within the boundaries of the former London County Council (RIP Herbert Morrison Problematic FF), and this constituency is in Deepest Middlesex.

[Duke of York]

Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

Can we please just ban him?


On a more serious note, what are the implications of this going forward assuming the results don't change? Are the Tories just going to go on, continuing to shed members until the full five-year term is up? Is there any prospect of another leadership challenge?

I think they are going to wait to have an election until late next year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Declaration due, we are told, in God's Own County. If rumours be true, well, we'll see.

[Pericles]

How long until somebody uses the words 'Long Corbyn' to explain this by-election defeat?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How long until somebody uses the words 'Long Corbyn' to explain this by-election defeat?

At only 101 votes, this Corbyn came up pretty short.

[Benjamin Frank]

If Labour lose in Uxbridge I think it poses questions about the Mayoral election next year - I think its fair to say that Khan hasn't been the best mayor and you've got the ULEZ issue in outer London and crime and the various issues with the Metropolitan Police as a big issue. Khan will be the favourite going in and the Conservative candidate is hardly inspiring but I think it'll end up close - there's also the fact that FPTP advantages the Conservatives as the Lib Dems and Greens votes that used to generally transfer towards Labour under SV obviously won't anymore.

Is Khan expected to run for a third term? I can't speak for all big cities, but it seems to be the case that in big cities it's often the case that the mayor's popularity has collapsed after two terms. I think a lot to do with large expectations on the mayor versus the amount of money they have to actually accomplish things.

I think we already got a sense of that in London with the election held off a year due to Covid. The polling showed Khan would have won a large landslide had the election been held the year prior but with Khan into his 5th year, the result was a fair bit tighter.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

How long until somebody uses the words 'Long Corbyn' to explain this by-election defeat?

Corbyn* undoubtedly lost Uxbridge and South Ruislip.


*Piers (Jeremy's brother) came in 11th.

[Benjamin Frank]

What time is Selby and Aintsley expected to report? I'm listening to the BBC broadcast at the same time as the Canada-Nigeria Women's World Cup game has just started.

[Harlow]

If Labour lose in Uxbridge I think it poses questions about the Mayoral election next year - I think its fair to say that Khan hasn't been the best mayor and you've got the ULEZ issue in outer London and crime and the various issues with the Metropolitan Police as a big issue. Khan will be the favourite going in and the Conservative candidate is hardly inspiring but I think it'll end up close - there's also the fact that FPTP advantages the Conservatives as the Lib Dems and Greens votes that used to generally transfer towards Labour under SV obviously won't anymore.

Is Khan expected to run for a third term?

Yes, he already announced his intention to run again early last year and he is officially Labour's candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What time is Selby and Aintsley expected to report? I'm listening to the BBC broadcast at the same time as the Canada-Nigeria Women's World Cup game has just started.

Very soon.

[Joe Republic]

https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1682150926847451137

Neil Parish urgently en-route.

[YL]

Candidates are about to be told the provisional result in Selby & Ainsty.  So it should be very soon, unless there is another recount.