UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Joe Republic]

Sarah Charmian Green (Green)

…

[7] Is it better to put your single issue in your first name or your surname?

Or better yet…

[Torrain]

Isn't Danny Boy Beales a character in EastEnders? 

If he wins, £5 on one of the papers writing up the by-election entitled with some variation of “Boris’ Replacement: Beales is London’s Newest WestEnder.”

[CumbrianLefty]

Have the Yorkshire Party clarified what happened in Selby?

[JimJamUK]

Have the Yorkshire Party clarified what happened in Selby?

As far as I can tell, no. They had a piece about their candidate published yesterday before the statement of persons nominated was published, but nothings been said about why he is now listed as an independent.

[YL]

Have the Yorkshire Party clarified what happened in Selby?

As far as I can tell, no. They had a piece about their candidate published yesterday before the statement of persons nominated was published, but nothings been said about why he is now listed as an independent.

It could just be a blunder in the nomination process; I'm sure candidates have appeared as "No Description" before for that reason.  But I would note that he was elected as a Conservative in 2015, as a Yorkshire Party candidate in 2019 and as a Conservative again in 2022 and only left that party days before he was announced as Yorkshire Party candidate, which is a record I would think most parties would be wary of.

He is his own agent, which would be a little surprising for a genuine party candidate, though the same is true of the SDP and Heritage candidates.

Update: there is a tweet from Yorkshire Party member David Herdson saying that he should be Yorkshire Party, and "will be listed with the party logo on the ballot paper".  I think he should now be regarded as a Yorkshire Party candidate.

[Blair]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

[CumbrianLefty]

Greg Hands took great glee in tweeting "dozens of (in reality about 20) Tory activists" greeting SKS on his arrival, under the apparent impression it made Starmer look bad (it didn't really)

Meanwhile, bookies now have Labour moving into pole position in the seat.

[Torrain]

Yeah, the Hands tweet was a bit of a damp squib. Starmer and Rayner cheerily greet the Tory activists in what I thought rather endearing way. All quite sporting, tbh.

But then again, if Hands was a sharp operator, perhaps he wouldn’t have bungled messaging around the locals so badly. If the Tories lose 2-3 of these by-elections, I do wonder whether he might finally fall on his sword, after improbably surviving May.

[CumbrianLefty]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

[Blair]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

Certainly; these sort of outer London seats weirdly tend to have a certain type of partisan toryship.

Added in with the fact it’s a well ran Tory council and they’re essentially running on an anti ULEZ ticket it could be a strange result.

I also just realised how soon it is; only 20 days till polling day.

[JimJamUK]

Labour commissioned poll showing them with a narrow lead in Mid Bedfordshire. The figures don’t look preposterous, but it was obviously released to create a narrative of Labour leading but narrowly enough that anti-Tory voters need to get behind them. The independent vote is interesting.

LAB: 28% (+6)
CON: 24% (-39)
Mackey: 19%
LDM: 15% (+2)
REF: 10%

[YL]

Interesting poll, though I think a few pinches of salt are needed, not least given that we still don't know that there is actually going to be a by-election there.

I think the Tory change should be -36, but even that is truly dreadful for them.  Even with a split opposition vote they will be very lucky to hold the seat if they're below about 35%.  Labour can use it to draw bar charts, which I imagine was the point.  The Independent is very high, though it is worth noting that Independents did very well in the Central Bedfordshire council election in May.  Reform are also very high given their track record, but we will see whether that track record changes in Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome; they're not standing in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where they did a deal with Laurence Fox, but we can probably think of Reclaim as being proxy-Reform-but-slightly-nuttier.

In other by-election news, there are rumours that the report on Chris Pincher's behaviour is about to drop and will lead to a recall petition in Tamworth.  Tamworth is probably even harder for Labour or the Lib Dems to win than Selby & Ainsty or Mid Beds; I know Labour did well in Tamworth borough in May, but the constituency also contains some uber-Tory areas in Lichfield district.

[Coldstream]

Interesting poll, though I think a few pinches of salt are needed, not least given that we still don't know that there is actually going to be a by-election there.

I think the Tory change should be -36, but even that is truly dreadful for them.  Even with a split opposition vote they will be very lucky to hold the seat if they're below about 35%.  Labour can use it to draw bar charts, which I imagine was the point.  The Independent is very high, though it is worth noting that Independents did very well in the Central Bedfordshire council election in May.  Reform are also very high given their track record, but we will see whether that track record changes in Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome; they're not standing in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where they did a deal with Laurence Fox, but we can probably think of Reclaim as being proxy-Reform-but-slightly-nuttier.

In other by-election news, there are rumours that the report on Chris Pincher's behaviour is about to drop and will lead to a recall petition in Tamworth.  Tamworth is probably even harder for Labour or the Lib Dems to win than Selby & Ainsty or Mid Beds; I know Labour did well in Tamworth borough in May, but the constituency also contains some uber-Tory areas in Lichfield district.

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

[YL]

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

[Coldstream]

uid[/b]=15182]
Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

That also seems like a bad idea, cos it means Labour can just campaign saying that the Tory candidate is a stand in/won’t actually be your MP. There’s no simple way out of this conundrum.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it possible that all this will result in changes to laws involving the potential recall of MPs?

[YL]

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

That also seems like a bad idea, cos it means Labour can just campaign saying that the Tory candidate is a stand in/won’t actually be your MP. There’s no simple way out of this conundrum.

Yes, that's why I think it's risky.  But the other alternative is to screw Hughes over and give the by-election candidate the General Election nomination.

[YL]

Is it possible that all this will result in changes to laws involving the potential recall of MPs?

The laws on this probably ought to be reviewed at some point, but I doubt that recall will disappear altogether.

The Tories' Tamworth problem isn't really to do with the potential by-election being caused by recall, it's to do with the boundary changes and the fact that they've already selected a sitting MP for a different constituency for the new Tamworth.  Any by-election cause would give them a problem in that scenario.

[Blair]

I don't think the current honourable member is going to resign anytime soon though is he?

[CumbrianLefty]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

Certainly; these sort of outer London seats weirdly tend to have a certain type of partisan toryship.

Added in with the fact it’s a well ran Tory council and they’re essentially running on an anti ULEZ ticket it could be a strange result.

I also just realised how soon it is; only 20 days till polling day.

Labour are strong favourites in Uxbridge with the bookies* and personally I doubt ULEZ is as much of a magic bullet for Tory electoral prospects as some of them may hope (not least because polling has it nowhere near as unpopular as some media claims in particular might pretend)

(*yes I know they have been wrong before, famously in Chesham and Amersham recently)

[Blair]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

Certainly; these sort of outer London seats weirdly tend to have a certain type of partisan toryship.

Added in with the fact it’s a well ran Tory council and they’re essentially running on an anti ULEZ ticket it could be a strange result.

I also just realised how soon it is; only 20 days till polling day.

Labour are strong favourites in Uxbridge with the bookies* and personally I doubt ULEZ is as much of a magic bullet for Tory electoral prospects as some of them may hope (not least because polling has it nowhere near as unpopular as some media claims in particular might pretend)

(*yes I know they have been wrong before, famously in Chesham and Amersham recently)

Yeah it's one of those issues that certainly will deflate the Labour vote in parts but equally one that tends to convince rival political parties they're onto a winner because of the strength of opposition which gets confused for quantity; added ofc to the fact that most errr political types in london forget how low car ownership actually is. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

That also seems like a bad idea, cos it means Labour can just campaign saying that the Tory candidate is a stand in/won’t actually be your MP. There’s no simple way out of this conundrum.

Yes, that's why I think it's risky.  But the other alternative is to screw Hughes over and give the by-election candidate the General Election nomination.

Suggestions his wife might stand in for any Tamworth byelection (this sort of thing actually happened a few times in ye olden dayes)

[Coldstream]

What’s most bizarre is that Tory HQ backed Hughes for the selection, when surely they must have seen this possibility coming? Even if you ignore the recall, Pincher should always have been seen as a possible resignation.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

Certainly; these sort of outer London seats weirdly tend to have a certain type of partisan toryship.

Added in with the fact it’s a well ran Tory council and they’re essentially running on an anti ULEZ ticket it could be a strange result.

I also just realised how soon it is; only 20 days till polling day.

Labour are strong favourites in Uxbridge with the bookies* and personally I doubt ULEZ is as much of a magic bullet for Tory electoral prospects as some of them may hope (not least because polling has it nowhere near as unpopular as some media claims in particular might pretend)

(*yes I know they have been wrong before, famously in Chesham and Amersham recently)

Yeah it's one of those issues that certainly will deflate the Labour vote in parts but equally one that tends to convince rival political parties they're onto a winner because of the strength of opposition which gets confused for quantity; added ofc to the fact that most errr political types in london forget how low car ownership actually is. 

Though the north of Hillingdon is one of the areas of London where car ownership rates are highest.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some in the media now talking up Labour's campaign in Uxbridge being hampered by ULEZ.

One remains slightly sceptical, in the absence of any hard evidence.