UK By-elections thread, 2021-
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 02, 2023, 05:20:45 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK By-elections thread, 2021-
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 65 66 67 68 69 [70]
Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 89934 times)
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,208


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1725 on: December 21, 2022, 03:38:37 PM »

I think Cameron's attempts to "modernise" the Tory Party were a significant factor in UKIP's appeal to previously Tory voters, and that does include same sex marriage as well as environmental issues.  But I'd agree that they were a fairly small part of UKIP's appeal overall.

The unavailability of the Lib Dems for protest purposes in the Coalition years is, I think, underrated as a factor, because people underestimate the extent to which UKIP's and the pre-Coalition Lib Dems' appeal overlapped; they genuinely didn't have much in common ideologically, but that's not the same thing.

(Is the return of the Lib Dem by-election surge making it harder for Reform UK to make an impact?  I'm not convinced; only three by-elections in this Parliament have had strong Lib Dem performances, which leaves plenty of opportunities for Reform UK.)

Also, Lib Dem campaigning efforts have tended to be either actively liberal, pro-European, or NIMBYism above all else. Only the latter has much appeal to the cranks who were the LD/UKIP base and even for them it wasn't the big issue.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1726 on: January 10, 2023, 10:46:05 AM »

Looking like West Lancashire will go to the polls on February 9th.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,843
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1727 on: January 10, 2023, 11:52:28 AM »

Looking like West Lancashire will go to the polls on February 9th.

Yes, and the deadline for nominations is this Friday.  (This seems remarkably a short timescale, but I suppose everyone has known this by-election was pending for long enough that parties should have got their act together with their candidates by now.)
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,255
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1728 on: January 13, 2023, 02:39:46 AM »

An interesting result in the Plymouth by-election- the ward was Moor View (itís in the constituency of the same name)

Labour won on a 17% swing- thereís been a lot of turmoil in the Tory Group and I think a 1/3rd of seats are up in May- Plymouth has generally been a very good bellwether- Labour winning it back in 2018 was a sign they were doing well.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,573
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1729 on: January 13, 2023, 06:57:05 AM »

Plymouth Tories also lost a very different seat to the greens on a similar swing - suggests to me they may be quite boned.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1730 on: January 13, 2023, 11:17:49 AM »
« Edited: January 13, 2023, 11:23:53 AM by CumbrianLefty »

That stonking result in Plymouth follows an impressive Labour gain in Cannock Chase last week.

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,843
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1731 on: January 13, 2023, 11:38:41 AM »

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

We could always try to start one again.

On the Parliamentary front, West Lancashire has just six candidates:

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)
Logged
TheTide
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,539
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1732 on: January 13, 2023, 12:12:41 PM »

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

We could always try to start one again.

On the Parliamentary front, West Lancashire has just six candidates:

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)

Cranie is a name that I first came across when Nick Griffin (ugh) won a seat in the 2009 European Elections.
Logged
#LightTheBeam 🏀💜
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,723
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1733 on: January 13, 2023, 02:54:53 PM »

Will Hope break 1% since thereís only one other frivolous candidate in the race?
Logged
TheTide
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,539
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1734 on: January 13, 2023, 03:20:58 PM »

Will Hope break 1% since thereís only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

Arguably four of the six.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1735 on: January 14, 2023, 07:08:52 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2023, 08:23:07 AM by CumbrianLefty »

Will Hope break 1% since thereís only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

4% for the party's founder David Sutch in the 1994 Rotherham by-election remains the all-time high for the OMRLP. Notable that there were only four other candidates in that one - the three "main" parties plus Natural Law, who finished last and stopped contesting elections before the 2001 GE.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,255
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1736 on: January 14, 2023, 08:03:23 AM »

Didnít even see the Green result!

I assume itís a case or wanting to punish the antics of the Conservatives locally and tbh nationally too.
Logged
JimJamUK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 358
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1737 on: January 14, 2023, 08:11:06 AM »

Didnít even see the Green result!

I assume itís a case or wanting to punish the antics of the Conservatives locally and tbh nationally too.
Given how localised their support is to that ward and how it appeared completely out of nowhere in 2021, it looks more likely a case of the Greens getting their act together and properly targeting a Ďsafeí Conservative ward that Labour will leave alone. Itís actually a worse result for the Greens than they got in 2022 (perhaps the other councillor had a good personal vote, but theyíd have hoped his work as an incumbent would get votes for the newly elected councillor as well).
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1738 on: January 15, 2023, 07:22:57 AM »

Though its quite common for "coat-talis" candidates following an electoral breakthrough for one party (usually Greens and LibDems, though Labour and Tory examples exist too) to do slightly less well - at least until the "insurgent" force becomes more firmly established there.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,573
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1739 on: January 21, 2023, 08:41:45 AM »

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.
Logged
TheTide
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,539
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1740 on: January 21, 2023, 08:46:30 AM »

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

It would be a Comedy of Errors.
Logged
Cassius
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,201


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1741 on: January 21, 2023, 10:36:32 AM »

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

It would be a Comedy of Errors.


Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of bore.
Logged
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,683
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1742 on: January 24, 2023, 11:34:03 AM »

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

Hey - all that matters is election night.

*

The rest is silence.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,338
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -8.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1743 on: January 25, 2023, 02:17:14 AM »

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.
To resign or not to resign, that is the question.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,484
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1744 on: January 25, 2023, 08:55:39 AM »

Of course the Tories will try to avoid byelections in even their "safest" seats by all means possible.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 65 66 67 68 69 [70]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.