UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Looking like West Lancashire will go to the polls on February 9th.

Yes, and the deadline for nominations is this Friday.  (This seems remarkably a short timescale, but I suppose everyone has known this by-election was pending for long enough that parties should have got their act together with their candidates by now.)

[Blair]

An interesting result in the Plymouth by-election- the ward was Moor View (it’s in the constituency of the same name)

Labour won on a 17% swing- there’s been a lot of turmoil in the Tory Group and I think a 1/3rd of seats are up in May- Plymouth has generally been a very good bellwether- Labour winning it back in 2018 was a sign they were doing well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Plymouth Tories also lost a very different seat to the greens on a similar swing - suggests to me they may be quite boned.

[CumbrianLefty]

That stonking result in Plymouth follows an impressive Labour gain in Cannock Chase last week.

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

[YL]

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

We could always try to start one again.

On the Parliamentary front, West Lancashire has just six candidates:

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Still miss the weekly round-up of council byelections on here, ngl.

We could always try to start one again.

On the Parliamentary front, West Lancashire has just six candidates:

Jo Barton (Lib Dem)
Peter Cranie (Green)
Ruth Ashley Dalton (Lab)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Jonathan Kay (Reform UK)
Mike Prendergast (Con)

Cranie is a name that I first came across when Nick Griffin (ugh) won a seat in the 2009 European Elections.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Will Hope break 1% since there’s only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Will Hope break 1% since there’s only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

Arguably four of the six.

[CumbrianLefty]

Will Hope break 1% since there’s only one other frivolous candidate in the race?

4% for the party's founder David Sutch in the 1994 Rotherham by-election remains the all-time high for the OMRLP. Notable that there were only four other candidates in that one - the three "main" parties plus Natural Law, who finished last and stopped contesting elections before the 2001 GE.

[Blair]

Didn’t even see the Green result!

I assume it’s a case or wanting to punish the antics of the Conservatives locally and tbh nationally too.

[JimJamUK]

Didn’t even see the Green result!

I assume it’s a case or wanting to punish the antics of the Conservatives locally and tbh nationally too.

Given how localised their support is to that ward and how it appeared completely out of nowhere in 2021, it looks more likely a case of the Greens getting their act together and properly targeting a ‘safe’ Conservative ward that Labour will leave alone. It’s actually a worse result for the Greens than they got in 2022 (perhaps the other councillor had a good personal vote, but they’d have hoped his work as an incumbent would get votes for the newly elected councillor as well).

[CumbrianLefty]

Though its quite common for "coat-talis" candidates following an electoral breakthrough for one party (usually Greens and LibDems, though Labour and Tory examples exist too) to do slightly less well - at least until the "insurgent" force becomes more firmly established there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

It would be a Comedy of Errors.

[Cassius]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

It would be a Comedy of Errors.

Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of bore.

[Torrain]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

Hey - all that matters is election night.

*

The rest is silence.

[morgieb]

Won't happen, but fingers are crossed Zahawi's issues force a Stratford on Avon by election so we can see incredibly laboured bits on Shakespeare from pundits eager to show off.

To resign or not to resign, that is the question.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course the Tories will try to avoid byelections in even their "safest" seats by all means possible.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

West Lancashire is today, not that I knew until I just saw a single mention of it on Twitter.

[YL]

West Lancashire is today, not that I knew until I just saw a single mention of it on Twitter.

It's not exactly the most exciting by-election, is it?

Anyway, here's Andrew Teale's preview.

[YL]

Lab 14068 (62.3%)
Con 5742 (25.4%)
Reform 994 (4.4%)
Lib Dem 918 (4.1%)
Green 646 (2.9%)
Loony 210 (0.9%)

Turnout 31.4%

[Torrain]

Best Labour percentage in this seat - ever.
Worst Conservative percentage in this seat - ever.

[Torrain]

Notably - the Britain Elects/New Statesman model was right on the money for party vote share in the seat.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1623863755284140033
For reference, they currently have Lab 424, Con 138, SNP 42, Lib Dem 22) in their live forecast.

[CumbrianLefty]

Best Labour percentage in this seat - ever.
Worst Conservative percentage in this seat - ever.

Considering there is still a genepool Tory vote in some of the rural areas of this seat, and turnout in Skelmersdale was likely even less impressive than normal, Labour can be happy enough with this.

All other parties losing their deposit was not what quite a few predicted.

[adma]

All other parties losing their deposit was not what quite a few predicted.

Well, it's byelection-style statistical noise in a constituency where there traditionally hasn't been much heft beyond LabCon.  And it also reflects a moment when the generic anti-LabCon vote has "spread out", as opposed to the old days of Lib Dem as a singular NOTA standby or the more recent oxygen-hogging by UKIP/Brexitty types of parties...